Florian Buschek

[Liger Cub @realLigerCub]

Trading below net cash ($3.36 vs. $2.57). Minimal debt. FCF breakeven. Gaining market share in a stabilizing industry (+ potential for regulatory tailwinds). New high margin segment w/ two customer wins already secured. Strong operating leverage. Disciplined capital allocation w/ active buybacks and an accretive acquisition pipeline. Insiders own over a third of the company… etc. etc. $PEW

[Tracktacle @Tracktacle_app]

1/*We just released a new feature, and we are 100% sure you are going to love it.

You can now easily compare and use AI to analyze management statements from an earnings call alongside all earlier calls in our database. This makes it simple to verify consistency and track the..

[Financial Skeptic @FinSkeptic]

I have just published a post on the newsletter website. I would like to point out that, as always, I am merely explaining the reasons behind my own investment decision. This is not investment advice, and everyone should always do their own research. $SEN.AX

[Florian Buschek @FBuschek]

@SebKrog TRIP

[Rabbit Research @1rabbitresearch]

Wedbush upgraded TripAdvisor $TRIP to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $19, up from $12, after assuming coverage of the name.

The firm sees 57% upside from current levels. TripAdvisor has underappreciated catalysts, including its governance transformation that eliminated controlled-company status, activist involvement by Starboard Value, a strategic review process for TheFork, and an emerging AI narrative given its large and valuable travel dataset and recently signed partnership deals with OpenAI. Wedbush sees a valuation disconnect and compelling entry point at current share levels.

[Tim Eriksen @eriksen_tim]

Solid quarter by Monument Mining $MMY.V $MMTMF earned $22.65M or $0.07 per share. Has almost $101M or $0.30 per net cash. Trading at ~ 2x earnings net of cash. https://t.co/c56aqhOJuY

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

Of all the $ABVX noise I've written tonight, the shared tweet I just posted here is the most important. If you're not going to read anything else, that's the tweet to review.

The TL,DR?

$ABVX's rough per patient year malignancy rate is ~0.31. Sotyktu's, a drug that was under a huge safety lens since it is technically a JAK inhibitor, was 0.46...and it DIDN'T GET A MALIGNANCY RISK ON THE LABEL!!!

➡️~0.46 cancers/patient-year for Sotyktu
↪️No black box
➡️~0.31 cancers/patient-year for $ABVX
↪️No black box❓❓❓

[Florian Buschek @FBuschek]

@everyonehatesp1 That's so true!

[Florian Buschek @FBuschek]

@everyonehatesp1 I mean I would have been almost worried if every single one of your pitches worked out fantastically and immediately lol

[everyonehatespoetry @everyonehatesp1]

What a dog of a stock, didn't sell anything FYI, trading action is a strange mix of some giving up despite no news and I think Suro Capital exiting on their last shares worth of selling (hopefully)

[Gappy (Giuseppe Paleologo) @__paleologo]

“Value investing with legends” is a great finance-specific podcast with a mix of celebrities and dedicated professionals. Here are some of my favorite episodes.

Kent Daniel: from physics to finance
https://t.co/gF4zywCWyd

Cliff Asness: quant investing, inefficiencies, being Cliff
https://t.co/SK0hGGKUHR

Nicolai Tangen: intuition, fundamental investing
https://t.co/YfTLwEAAxe

Michael Mauboussin: biases (and also learning from a master financial communicator)
https://t.co/ZKppJsGxok

[Hidden Returns @hidden_returns]

1/4 Nach längerer Abwesenheit gibt es heute gleich drei Mal @FinSkeptic. Mit seinem Pitch Radcom $RDCM hat er eine durchaus längere Historie, die bislang von weniger Erfolg geprägt war als erhofft. Sven sieht jedoch gute Gründe dafür, dass...

https://t.co/5GsAsBLHGv

[Boersenhaendler @Boersenhaendler]

#90 - Pitch Radcom & Updates zu Iridex und NowVertical mit Gast Sven Klass https://t.co/Nzy1NyGxKn via @YouTube

Optimal zum Kaffee, morgen die neue Folge von @hidden_returns @finance_schmidt @FinSkeptic #UnbezahlteWerbung

[Florian Buschek @FBuschek]

@GrumpierBTDay @KuyaSilver I very much share this perspective

[GrumpierByTheDay @GrumpierBTDay]

$KUYA.CN $KUYAF @KuyaSilver

Sorry, David. I think you're a good guy, but you are killing the market's confidence with your inability to answer the most important questions shareholders have.

On the recent call, in response to "What was tpd mined in April and so far in May?" he said:
“Um, no, all I can say is that uh, we, I mean, we did, we did say, we we started, uh, we started the quarter at 100 tpd, and uh, we uh, we have uh, you know, we do, we are still in the position where we, uh, you know, some days we’re doing extraordinary development, where the tons may go down a bit, but overall we’re still moving in the right direction, and I think Q2 will be significantly higher than Q1 was in terms of tons per day.”

Not only could you not answer candidly, but you weren't even prepared for what was the most obvious question shareholders would ask. You stumbled through and evaded the most important thing anybody cares about.

We're all here for the ramp up. I've heard from other shareholders that David is defending his perspective as one of making long-term optimizations, forgoing short-term tpd targets for better operations.

That's FINE. Shareholders are happy to have that conversation. We can all handle some volatility. Mining is full of interruptions and delays. Plans can change in the face of the largest capital base you've had in years. We can handle those conversations.

But to not even address those issues with us is inexcusable. So sorry, not sorry. Do better.

All that said, Kuya is still undervalued. I will be a buyer if we drop lower from here.

[GrumpierByTheDay @GrumpierBTDay]

$CBR.V out with their MD&A for the 6 months ended 31 March. Came with the most encouraging kind of updates you can get in a jr developer: everything is on time and on budget.

As a reminder:
- Construction Q2
- Commissioning Q3
- Mining start Q3
- Commercial ramp up Q4

"Procurement of all mechanical and electrical equipment and construction materials has been completed with most purchased goods on site or in transit to site. The largest equipment package was the ADR (Adsorption Desorption and Recovery) plant, which was manufactured in Perth, Western Australia, and is currently in transit to the site. All equipment and materials required for first gold production are due to arrive on site by early July 2026."

Earthworks are complete. Plant installation and construction is now under way.

I am long.

[Florian Buschek @FBuschek]

@GrumpierBTDay You're very welcome in Germany 😃

[Alpha_Ex_LLC @Alpha_Ex_LLC]

TLDR: history tells us that the SK Hynix leveraged ETF may end in tears for long holders. Be careful.
With respect to the the leveraged ETF on SK Hynix, there may be something akin to the price/vol spiral that occurred in $MSTR 2x ETFs back in Nov'24, $MSTU, $MSTX
Below, a 23 min podcast I did on this dynamic at that time.
SK Hynix now has a market cap of 1T USD. The 2x ETF has a market cap of 10bln USD. That's nearly double the market cap that the two referenced Bitcoin lev ETFs had at peak in late Nov'24.
Both products rely on swap counterparties to gain the necessary leverage. In late 2024, it was reported that counterparties to the MSTR and MSTU products were reducing how much leverage they'd extend. It reportedly forced the ETF providers into the options market. This created inelastic demand for options at any price to get the needed delta exposure. Implied vol surged, as I covered in the podcast.
Let's look at some option market dynamics in SK Hynix that trade out of South Korea. Note, the ETF trades in Hong Kong. The first chart is call option volume. The second (top right) is a snapshot of open interest for June 11 expiries. Look at the circled strikes. Below that, tying those open interest levels to recent volume.
Lastly, the recent surge in implied vol on one of those options.
The next pic below is with the help of Claude who read the leveraged ETF prospectus with attention to the hedging protocol. They can utilize options up to 25% of NAV...and well, it seems they may have, according to what they report, also shown below.
If the late 2024 MSTR spiral can inform us about this episode - and I think it does - the SK Hynix 2x ETF provider has played a meaningful role in contributing to the massive realized vol on up days in SK Hynix and has moved the vol market considerably as well.
Last chart shows deviations from NAV. It gets really sloppy when you have to into the options market and put up prints of 100k. You are forcing the seller to make a price on convexity risk that is the equiv of flood insurance in a flood zone. Both prices are going to be crazy high.
The odds of a leveraged ETF on a 100 vol asset succeeding are incredibly low.
And zooming out, if some part of the market's run is simply a wealth effect reinforcing loop, this could reverse some of that quickly. Hard not to think the gains in all of these stocks, not just SK Hynix, are part of the large chip stack being risked in an increasingly loose poker gain.

https://t.co/p9NRNUXiif