Jad

I buy stocks & collect Rolexes

[Jad @chams_jad]

I am not a $META shareholder.
Not because the business is weak. The Q1 2026 numbers are objectively strong:
revenue up 33% YoY
operating margin at 41%
ad impressions +19%
average price per ad +12%
The ad machine is still running very well.
The issue is I cannot answer the one question that matters: will Zuckerberg actually monetize the CapEx?
He answered it himself on the Q1 call. "The formula for our company has always been to build experiences that can get to billions of people and focus on monetizing them once you get to scale". He added he does not have a precise plan for how each product scales month over month.
FY2026 CapEx guidance is $135B and the annual expected revenue is $225B. CapEx/revenue = 60%
This connects to a broader lesson I internalized after sitting on a position bought purely because it looked cheap.
Finding a mispriced asset is not enough.
You need a VARIANT PERCEPTION: a specific reason why the market is wrong and why you are right when the consensus is not.
And you need a CATALYST: a future event that will force the market to update its view. Could be an earnings surprise, a management shift, a regulatory change or a competitor stumble.
Without both, you are not an investor with an edge. You are a holder of a cheap asset that can stay cheap indefinitely.
For $META right now, I cannot identify a clear near term catalyst that would force a rerating. AI monetization remains speculative by Zuckerberg's own admission.
I will keep monitoring the situation. No entry as long as conditions stay as they are.

[Jad @chams_jad]

@RobinhoodApp My sleep schedule is synchronized with Asian market open

[Jad @chams_jad]

The business is not the question. The numbers are fine.
The question is what $135B in annual capex is actually building and whether Zuckerberg knows the answer. His own words on the Q1 call suggest he does not, at least not yet.
A mispriced asset with no catalyst is not an opportunity. It is a position that can stay mispriced indefinitely.
https://t.co/NOgnwkcrFy

[Jad @chams_jad]

I am not a $META shareholder.
Not because the business is weak. The Q1 2026 numbers are objectively strong:
revenue up 33% YoY
operating margin at 41%
ad impressions +19%
average price per ad +12%
The ad machine is still running very well.
The issue is I cannot answer the one question that matters: will Zuckerberg actually monetize the CapEx?
He answered it himself on the Q1 call. "The formula for our company has always been to build experiences that can get to billions of people and focus on monetizing them once you get to scale". He added he does not have a precise plan for how each product scales month over month.
FY2026 CapEx guidance is $135B and the annual expected revenue is $225B. CapEx/revenue = 60%
This connects to a broader lesson I internalized after sitting on a position bought purely because it looked cheap.
Finding a mispriced asset is not enough.
You need a VARIANT PERCEPTION: a specific reason why the market is wrong and why you are right when the consensus is not.
And you need a CATALYST: a future event that will force the market to update its view. Could be an earnings surprise, a management shift, a regulatory change or a competitor stumble.
Without both, you are not an investor with an edge. You are a holder of a cheap asset that can stay cheap indefinitely.
For $META right now, I cannot identify a clear near term catalyst that would force a rerating. AI monetization remains speculative by Zuckerberg's own admission.
I will keep monitoring the situation. No entry as long as conditions stay as they are.

[Jad @chams_jad]

@Cs_0828 @Alihashem Just because you have no other choice doesn't mean none of us do

[Jad @chams_jad]

Surprising terms if confirmed. But Trump's words are secondary at this point. His position has shifted on key issues multiple times already. The deal matters, his statements don't. Until there is a signed document nobody should be taking this seriously.

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

According to my sources, the draft proposal that’s supposed to be finalised include:

-End of war on all fronts including Lebanon

-Freeing several billion dollars of Iran's blocked funds

-Lifting the U.S. naval blockade and opening the strait of Hormuz

-Withdrawal of American forces from the immediate vicinity of Iran

After this, the parties will have 30 days to agree on the nuclear issue.
These 30 days can be extended by mutual agreement.
During these thirty days, passage will be facilitated through the strait.
According to Iran, management of the Strait of Hormuz will be an Iranian-Omani issue, and is being negotiated with Muscat.

[Jad @chams_jad]

@StockSavvyShay https://t.co/IeEm9fM6b3

[Jad @chams_jad]

Forum needs a Facebook login. Your real identity is visible to group admins. People use Reddit to ask questions they would never ask on Facebook. That is the moat and Forum does not touch it.
Reddit also has 20 years of indexed answers that still show up on Google searches every day. That data is being licensed for AI training.
Reddit's value is in the archive. Forum starts at zero. Reddit is to general knowledge what Stack Overflow was to code before GPT.
Still long $RDDT I am

[Jad @chams_jad]

Forum needs a Facebook login. Your real identity is visible to group admins. People use Reddit to ask questions they would never ask on Facebook. That is the moat and Forum does not touch it.
Reddit also has 20 years of indexed answers that still show up on Google searches every day. That data is being licensed for AI training.
Reddit's value is in the archive. Forum starts at zero. Reddit is to general knowledge what Stack Overflow was to code before GPT.
Still long $RDDT I am

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$RDDT FALLS AFTER META LAUNCHES REDDIT COMPETITOR

Reddit shares fell 6% Friday after Meta launched Forum, a standalone iOS test app built around Facebook Groups.

RDDT is now down nearly 40% this year.

Truist says the risk is not Reddit’s core users leaving, but casual users slowly shifting away if Forum becomes a good enough place to find answers and join discussions.

[Jad @chams_jad]

@Polymarket

[Jad @chams_jad]

@unusual_whales I totally agree

[Jad @chams_jad]

@autio_pasi @wallstengine Strix Halo is just the codename for the Ryzen AI Max+ 395, the chip inside the Halo
Here: https://t.co/vTaND1cJWQ
Prompt processing is where you feel the gap when you work with a long context.

[Jad @chams_jad]

@autio_pasi @wallstengine token generation yes they are close. But not prompt processing. Blackwell is 5x faster there. It depends on which half of the benchmark you look at.

[Jad @chams_jad]

@FocusedCompound Patrick Bateman's morning routine

[Jad @chams_jad]

@esperituavx @wallstengine A genius. A light against intellectual obscurantism. You understood everything.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

There's some things in the market that don't make much sense.

$RDDT is the perfect example post-earnings.

One of the most profitable names right now with high growth...

But if it's related to software or not burning $1T+ in AI capex, markets don't care?

[Jad @chams_jad]

@unusual_whales The aberrant part isn't the clause. It's the entire situation. A president suing the government he controls and settling with himself. The outcome was never in doubt.

[Jad @chams_jad]

$ATEYY vs $TER. I prefer Advantest.

-> $ATEYY (6857) at ¥25,290
-near-pure play on SoC and HBM testing. V93000 is the dominant production platform for NVIDIA Blackwell, AMD MI300, Apple A-series
-V93000 qualification at TSMC, ASE, Amkor takes 12 to 18 months. Advantest co-develops test programs with chip designers before tape-out. the lock-in starts before the chip exists
-you do not swap a tester mid-ramp when shipping hundreds of thousands of HPC chips. switching cost is existential
-44.2% operating margin in FY2025 (fiscal year ended March 2026). software-level margin on industrial hardware
-ROE of 57.6%, FCF margin above 26% (¥335B OCF vs ¥33B capex). net cash position of ¥340B
-FY2026 guidance: ¥1,420B revenue (+25.8%), ¥627.5B operating income. management guiding for 44% op margin again
-98% of sales to overseas customers. yen risk is very limited

-> $TER at $320
-more diversified: Semi Test + Universal Robots + MiR. diversification is the problem
-Robotics is a low-margin and hyper-competitive segment sitting inside a company trying to price itself as an AI infrastructure play
-FY2025 operating margin: 20.4%. same macro environment, same year
-Q126 at $1.28B (+87% YoY) confirms AI test demand is real. but $524M deployed into a 10% minority stake in Technoprobe is strategically coherent but not yet cash-generative for shareholders
-trades at 48x forward P/E vs 41x for Advantest. richer multiple, thinner margins, Robotics drag
-TER does not have this position on the highest-value AI SoC segment

Advantest is a pure play.

Note: long $ATEYY. No position in $TER. Management guidance tends to be conservative, as is typical with Japanese companies. Would need to go deeper on $TER Robotics recovery timeline and Technoprobe synergies before revisiting.

[Jad @chams_jad]

@BRICSinfo lmao nothing in that list moved since April 8

[Jad @chams_jad]

@burrytracker Bro turned into Michael Burry

[Jad @chams_jad]

Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F is one of the few worth actually reading.
Massive puts on $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, $TSM, $SMH
Long the infrastructure: $IREN, $APLD, $CLSK, $CRWV
Makes me think I have underweighted the infrastructure side. Something to possibly revisit or not.