No analysis of #Iran is complete if you reduce what's unfolding in the country into a simplistic binary of an oppressive regime vs a freedom-loving people. That's a liberal trap. I have serious disagreements with the character of the Iranian state (which I have with a lot of regimes), but that doesn't stop me from trying to understand the broader picture. Iran has lived under crippling sanctions for decades--and those who imposed the sanctions wanted to make everyday life miserable in the hope that the public would rise against the regime which would open a window for the liberal interventionists. Why is Iran under sanctions? Mainly because of its nuclear programme. Iran exists in a very hostile region. Just look at the map -- Iran is the only Persian Gulf country that doesn't host an American military base. It sits in a region where Israel is the only nuclear power. The mistake Iran did -- as I have always argued -- was that it did not make the bomb. They thought they could leverage a nuclear threshold status for both security and economic relief. That was a blunder in a world of jungle. Tehran signed the nuclear deal in 2015. Trump demolished it in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. Europe just follows the line given from Washington.
Despite the hostility in the region, Iran enjoyed relative deterrence due its so-called axis of resistance. The US first killed Soleimani, one of the architects of the axis. And then Israel, post-Oct 7, with American help, chipped away at the axis. Because for both Israel and the US, Iran is the only revisionist power in West Asia. You take Syria out, Iran would be weakened. And you take Iran out, the whole region could be redrawn. Look at what happened. Hamas was pushed into the ruins of Gaza. Hezbollah has been degraded. Houthis are fighting their own battles. And the Syrian regime, Iran's only state ally in the region, collapsed. Russia is stuck in Ukraine. China remains too self-occupied. Iran suddenly lay vulnerable to external threats. And then the Israelis bombed Iran in June. Trump happily joined in.
Europe followed suit in the subsequent months by reimposing snapback sanctions--because Iran violated a deal that Trump killed in 2018! In the middle of all this, Iran had elected a reformist as its president in an election in which more than 30 million people voted. But the government’s hands were tied when it came to economic issues because of the sanctions. And there is genuine public resentment which was what triggered the shopkeepers' protests on January 1. But on Jan 2, after meeting Netanyahu in Florida, Trump said he was “locked and loaded”. Mossad started amplifying anti-regime messages in Farsi via social media. It even posted on X that “we are with you in the field” (I wrote here on X on the day the US attacked Venezuela and abducted President Maduro that Iran was next).
The protests started turning violent. Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed monarch who is living in the US, suddenly emerged as the “Crown Prince”. Someone who hasn’t set foot in Iran for over four decades, emerged in western TV and press as the rightful voice of Iran’s opposition and he called for urgent American bombing of Iran! Garbage propaganda channels such as Iran International unleashed a firestorm of misinformation. Reports about the situation on the ground came from “rights groups” based in Oslo and Washington. The liberal mills, which were conspicuously silent during Israel’s genocide of Palestinians for two years, started firing on all cylinders. Iran, they said, wants freedom through American and Israeli bombings.
And now Trump is asking the “protesters” to take over institutions. #IranProtests
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Dar confirmed the script, Rubio picked up the phone, Riyadh balanced the optics, Ankara drafted the quiet clause. The Americans, Saudis, and Turks rushed in to cool India’s fever, not because Pakistan asked but because Delhi couldn’t stabilize the board. Not one concession was extracted from Islamabad. Pathankot still smolders. The grid still flickers. The narrative holds.
Diplomacy didn’t broker this pause, containment did. India didn’t hold the line. It collapsed behind it. A paper tiger hemorrhaging in public doesn’t negotiate, it stalls, hoping no one sees the wounds.
Pakistan didn’t flinch. It didn’t fold. It escalated, absorbed, and redrew the board.
What was achieved in this senseless battle ? Pak fauj found its lost love in masses, Modi secured his election victory, defence OEMs tested their equipment and amidst all this, valuable human lives were lost on either side of the border. A sad reality. #IndiaPakistanWar
India wasn’t ready for ceasefire & talks until last night irrespective of international pressure. Pak’s definite response today has resulted in the ceasefire as well as India’s agreement to talks on neutral venue. No compromise on respect and sovereignty. #PakistanZindabad
Naming the retaliation after an Ayat, attacking after Fajr, literally showing the whole attack live, hacking into their 70% electricity grids & cctv, destroying their airbases, all in less than an hour. That’s Pakistan for you. Mess around with Pakistan and find out..
The names of the little children who were martyred by Indian missiles a few days ago were written on the missile fired at India by Pakistan. They were innocent.
This is an act of war by India. Yes, a war that no one wanted has been imposed upon Pakistan by a rogue regime in Delhi. The fascist Modi regime wants to become the regional hegemon. Its evil designs to subjugate the region, however, will soon be buried in the dustbin of history.
Pakistan 🇵🇰 vs India 🇮🇳 = 7–0, Made in China 🇨🇳
On May 7, 2025, South Asia witnessed one of its most lopsided air combat outcomes in recent memory.
➡️ India launched a major airstrike targeting alleged “terrorist camps” inside Pakistan. But before their jets could complete the mission, they were ambushed and annihilated, not by American F-16s, but by a Chinese-designed air combat system.
Result?
🇮🇳 3 Rafales, 1 Su-30, 1 MiG-29 = shot down
🇮🇳 2 Israeli Heron drones = toast
🇵🇰 Losses = 0
➡️ Final score: 7–0
Star players?
🇨🇳 J-10CE multirole fighters
🇨🇳 PL-15 beyond-visual-range missiles
🇨🇳 HQ-9BE SAMs
🇨🇳 ZDK-03 AWACS coordination
💥 Coordinated via A-shoot B-guide, a combat tactic not even the US or NATO has demonstrated operationally.
🧠 Tactical Masterclass
Pakistani jets didn’t even need to light up their radars. All target data came from AWACS, guiding silent J-10s to optimal firing zones. One Rafale was reportedly shot down 10km from its own runway, mid-takeoff, defenceless.
The message? India got outplayed. Hard.
🇺🇸 The American Dilemma
Here’s where things get awkward for Washington:
Pakistan didn’t use U.S. F-16s in this engagement. Why? To avoid upsetting Uncle Sam.
The irony? The U.S. pushed for a “mediator” role in South Asia, but its idea of mediation was to supply arms to both sides while pretending to be neutral. It pressured Pakistan to show restraint with American hardware while pumping military support into India as part of its broader anti-China strategy.
But America’s “balancing act” in South Asia is now a farce. It arms India as a China-containment pawn, yet Pakistan, its “Major Non-NATO Ally”, just scored a stunning win using 100% Chinese tech.
This wasn’t just a diplomatic embarrassment, it was a strategic loss. The U.S. failed to curb escalation, failed to mediate and now fails to maintain influence in a region where its credibility is in freefall.
This conflict shows what the U.S. really is in South Asia: a spectator with a shrinking influence. Its refusal to back either side decisively is alienating both.
Meanwhile, China is watching. The performance of the J-10CE and PL-15 will now be on the military shopping lists of half the Global South.
India bet big on French Rafales, Israeli drones and American support. Pakistan bet on Chinese system integration and net-centric warfare. The outcome?
Chinese weapons work.
This wasn’t just a skirmish. It was a live-fire commercial for China’s defence industry and a serious blow to the West’s military prestige.
China's exported J10CE (E: type for export) to Pakistan is the 4.5th-gen fighter jet priced at $70M each.
The Rafale shot down by J10CE priced at $285M each.
India just placed a $7.5B order for 26 Rafales on April 28.
Despite only having 20 J10CEs, Pakistan has achieved air superiority dominance.