chell

185 85 ジム復帰後3ヶ月

[chell @chell24299453]

@doogolas @Mmorgaine @Brett_A_Taylor If you want to make that kind of comparison, I was saying that using something like 1% for a 100-win team would give you a closer approximation of their relative share of the contribution.

I know it’s a 1.5-win difference. I also understand that it’s not a small gap.

[chell @chell24299453]

@doogolas @Mmorgaine @Brett_A_Taylor I only said that because he compared two players with 8.0 WAR and 6.5 WAR and said PCA was 17% more effective at helping his team win. I was just pointing out that you shouldn’t calculate absolute numbers that way.

[chell @chell24299453]

@doogolas @Mmorgaine @Brett_A_Taylor Yeah, it's relative to replacement level. But it's cumulative wins, so 8.0 vs 6.5 isn't "17% more efficient" it's just +1.5 wins, about 1% over 162 games.

[chell @chell24299453]

@RollTideSaban11 @ilannfl18 Some argue the extra roster spot WAR treats as zero is a real advantage. The usual counter is that anyone can fill it. But I’ve never seen anyone say a replacement-level pitcher is meaningless because he’s worth 0 WAR. What happens on the field and WAR says aren’t always the same

[chell @chell24299453]

@RollTideSaban11 @ilannfl18 I understand how WAR is calculated and what it's trying to measure. It does a good job of measuring winning contribution despite its flaws, and I understand why some people see that as the full value of a two-way player. I don't agree or disagree — it's a valid opinion.

[chell @chell24299453]

@RollTideSaban11 @ilannfl18 WAR measures winning contribution, but basically treats Shohei’s value as replaceable by hiring one pitcher and one hitter. The value of having one player do both is essentially ignored.

[chell @chell24299453]

@Mmorgaine @Brett_A_Taylor The calculation is correct, but the interpretation is completely wrong. WAR measures accumulated absolute contribution. It’s not a relative metric.

Despite its flaws, WAR has worked as a useful number for evaluating MVP candidates. But it can’t fully measure the two-way value.

[chell @chell24299453]

@Brett_A_Taylor I understand that PCA currently leads in WAR-based winning contribution.
But no one has clearly quantified why a 1.5 WAR gap should be considered decisive.
Additionally, the standard comparison of pitcher versus position-player run values tends to work against Shohei as well.

[chell @chell24299453]

@Brett_A_Taylor That’s why people question whether WAR can truly measure a two-way player’s value. If you understand that and still believe winning contribution is what matters, that’s fair. But if you think WAR suddenly became a bad stat, you’re just misunderstanding what WAR measures.

[chell @chell24299453]

@Brett_A_Taylor WAR was a strong MVP indicator before two-way players came along. It measures winning contribution, but basically treats Shohei’s value as replaceable by hiring one pitcher and one hitter. The value of having one player do both is essentially ignored.

[chell @chell24299453]

@7filterugh @powers_71 WAR wasn’t designed to measure the value of a two-way.A survey of baseball kids might capture it better.
Whether MVP voters prioritize pure win accumulation or overall value will be interesting to watch, but I don’t think Ohtani needs a higher WAR number for it to make sence.

[chell @chell24299453]

@7filterugh @powers_71 I agree Ohtani is more valuable.
WAR is still great for measuring win contribution, but since two-way players arrived, it can’t fully capture the value of one person doing both.
It basically says “just hire two players.”

[chell @chell24299453]

@BlueSkyOnMars_ 確かにその通りですね。
失礼しました。

[chell @chell24299453]

@SixPointSports WAR adds Ohtani’s hitting and pitching for win value, but it’s basically “just hire two guys.” It ignores the commercial impact, attendance, and historical weight of one player doing both. Baseball Kids get his real value better than WAR does.

[chell @chell24299453]

@NateRoper_ I find it hard to say PCA’s defense is more valuable just because he has 24 Run Value vs. Ohtani’s 21. Is a routine catch really worth the same as an out created through a pitcher’s battle with the hitter? If so, why is pitching a specialized position in the first place?

[chell @chell24299453]

@TheBlogfines PCA being the Cubs’ best defender makes the argument somewhat valid, but there’s too much noise to use a team-wide defensive metric in the MVP debate. He’s only 1/9 of the defense, and it includes batted-ball luck from opponents.

[chell @chell24299453]

@ARKNDJL Is recording around 20 more outs really more valuable than Ohtani’s performance as a pitcher?

[chell @chell24299453]

@brendan_cubs Is recording 20 additional outs than avarage OF really more valuable than two-way?