Words to familiarize yourself with before Fat Bear Week starts on Tuesday:
Hefty — Packing extra poundage
Hoss — Has its own gravitational pull
Wide Load — Please allow extra room at Brooks Falls
Built Different — Mostly made of salmon
Mega Chonk — Final boss of chonks
Big Back — Self-explanatory
Winter-ready — Fat. Glorious. Prepared
Study up. There will be a test.
BREAKING: For the first time since the Iran war began, JPMorgan says it no longer has a baseline view on oil, writing "we simply don't know how to model the endgame," and that the assumption that the Middle East disruptions are temporary is "becoming increasingly difficult to sustain," per JPMorgan Global Research.
The bank says it had assumed there were economic red lines the Trump administration would be unwilling to cross, and that six months later "many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more."
Chevron's CEO said this week the Great fuel crisis has officially arrived, as Trump officials continue to claim the disruption temporary.
Hands down one of the greatest dark memes I’ve seen in my entire career.
I know folks on the commodity desk already knows how this math works, but just for the broader timeline and the math-challenged folks out there...
The Taylor Rule is traditionally used to calculate a central bank’s optimal policy rate: i = r* + p* + 1.5(p - p*) + 0.5(y - y*)
(i = nominal rate, r* = neutral rate, p* = 2% target, p - p* = inflation gap, y - y* = output gap).
Dr. Ghalibaf basically jammed two brand new variables into this classic framework, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb.
He's flexing that global CPI and terminal rates are dictated by their maritime choke points...
Honestly crown the man Meme King already. And the wild part? He’s not even lying. Does today's Fed decision even matter in the grand scheme?
Give it a few days, and we’ll all be recalibrating the next FOMC print purely around energy prices—which ironically are being priced by Tehran and the Houthis.
The guy isn't wrong. Welcome to the new macro regime.
#oott #iran
My cinnamon raisin bread dough is absolutely out of control right now 😭🍞✨ She’s rising, thriving, doing the absolute most… and honestly I’ve never been prouder 🥹💖
People who spend long periods of time at home and slowly lose the desire to go outside often think they're just resting. But psychologically, many of them are experiencing something called mental rumination. It's a state where the brain starts slowing down while the number of thoughts inside keeps increasing and the motivation to do anything slowly disappears. The mind gets stuck in the past, worries about the future and burns itself out. This isn't laziness, it's a nervous system stuck in survival mode. And the longer it lasts, the more distant normal life begins to feel. And the difficult part is that you usually can't escape it through one massive burst of motivation. And sometimes,recovery starts with just one small step.