Chillhouse

I post / retweet bangers

[Chillhouse @chillyhouse101]

@DeFiyst Banger

[Chillhouse @chillyhouse101]

@5morewhooppers Levels

[Lee Goon Wang @5morewhooppers]

LGW

[Scott Coyle @ScottCoyle_x]

Nearly had a 3sum last night, just needed 2 more people.

[Zer0 🕊️ @degengambleh]

CT 'derisking' into a 'black monday'

[The White Whale @WhiteWhaleLabs]

The Audit Of The Memecoin Casino

Since late August we have recorded every trade on every pump fun and Stonk launch on Solana. Not a sample. All of it: 384 million swaps from 7.7 million wallets across more than a million pools, every bonding curve and every pool that follows it. That is over 56 GB of data and 820 million rows of market history, and it grows by 18 to 25 million trades, up to a million wallets and more than 60,000 new launches every day.

We measured each coin minute by minute. We scored every entry by what the coin did next. We trained neural nets on the result, then went wallet by wallet looking for the people who actually win.

The question was simple: can anyone see the big move coming before it happens?

The short answer is no. The long answer is worse than no, because the data does not just fail to find an edge for you. It shows, in detail, who holds the edge, how they use it, and what they do with you.

Start with a coin that has actually caught a bid: real volume, real buyers, the kind of thing that shows up on your screener. From any given moment, about one in ten of those doubles within the next 24 hours. The rest bleed, and the bleeding is not gentle.

Now take a wallet's first buy into a live coin. Every first buy, 22.8 million of them over a two-week window. In 17% of those entries the coin doubles before it drops 40%. Trade that mechanically, double or stop, and you lose about 19% per attempt after costs.

Call that the house hold. A slot machine keeps 5 to 10%. This keeps 19%, per pull, before any skill or selection is applied.

The reason is the shape of the payoff. A 2× pays you 100%. The failures do not cost you 10%; they cost you 50%, 80%, 95%. To break even you have to be right far more often than the game allows.

The cabal is real, and we can see it

CT calls it the cabal. The data calls it a cluster: a set of wallets whose first buys land within a minute of each other, on the same brand-new coins, over and over. We do not find them by name or PFP. They fall out of the trade stream all on their own.

They are there. Swarms of 450, 1,400 and 2,000 wallets that hit hundreds of launches a week, moving in within the first minute or two of a coin's life. Smaller, tighter groups of 7 to 50 wallets that pick their spots. Across daily refreshes the count has run from 9 groups to 33, with members rotating in and out as wallets burn and fresh ones take their place.

They are not guessing. The coins the big swarms pile into double 28 to 46% of the time, three to four times the base rate. Their own entries, across every coin they touch, run 50 to 60% to a 2× before a 40% drop, against 17% for everyone else.

That is what an edge looks like in this market. It belongs to a few hundred wallets, and it is applied to tens of thousands of launches with industrial regularity.

Copying them loses too

The obvious retort: find the cabal, copy the cabal. We did exactly that. A machine watches every launch every minute and flags the moment a known group piles in. Then we traded every flag the way a fast human could: in two minutes behind the group, double or stop out at −40%, out after a day.

Following the big swarms lost 41% per coin across 93 coins. The median result was −95%. Not because they were wrong; their coins doubled 28% of the time. Two minutes behind them is simply already the top of the move. They bought at launch. You bought the candle they are selling into.

Following only the groups with a positive track record still lost 11% per coin. Following one good wallet on its own lost 20% per trade in our back-tests. The single pocket that came out ahead, a handful of small, tight groups, made about 10% per coin over 16 coins. That is a few days of trades and nothing anyone should bet a bankroll on.

The cabal's edge is not information you can borrow. It is position. By the time their trade is visible on-chain, the thing that made it profitable is gone.

The best model we could build still loses

We also tried the honest version: no cabal, just prediction. Dozens of signals per coin every minute, price, flow, liquidity, holder behaviour, bot share, fed into neural nets trained on our own history and tested on days they had never seen.

It works, in the sense a quant would recognize. The top of its ranking doubles 26% of the time against a 10% base rate. Two and a half times better than chance.

It also loses money every single day. 771 picks over eight days; every day negative; −11% per pick on the same double-or-stop rule; the median pick down 45%; 55% stopped out within 24 hours.

The ranking is real and the P&L is still red. The losers are deeper than the winners are tall, and nothing observable at the five-minute mark separates the coin that keeps going from the one that reverses. That is the part worth meditating on: a model 2.5× better than chance odds is still a losing model.

Why nobody sees it coming

The reason is simple, and it should change how you look at every chart. A meme coin moves because a few people decide to move it: the operator holding the supply, the caller with an audience, the wallet group with the bankroll. That decision is made off-chain. The chain only shows you its execution, the swaps, the volume, the new holders, and by then the first leg is done.

Everything a trader looks at, from a screener to a chart to a wallet tracker, is a photograph of a decision that has already been made. The data is enormous and almost all of it is the crowd reacting. The informative part, a few hundred wallets' intent, is visible only at the instant it executes, and the people executing it are the ones selling to you a few minutes later.

Add 60,000 launches a day, and the future 100× at minute one is indistinguishable from the 59,999 that die. The casino does not need to hide the cards because it deals them faster than anyone can read and analyze them.

Conclusion

After spending thousands of dollars in API credits, VPS costs, Claude credits, etc the goal was simple: find alpha - if it exists - in order to be able to monetize it.

Instead, all we were able to prove is what we all have suspected all along - the meme coin casino is almost entirely cabal driven.

🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋

[Rain @rainnen23]

If I could only read Twitter and had no access to view prices

I would assume that Bitcoin is trading at $3,052 dollars

[aaalex.hl @aaalex]

Black Monday
Asian Tuesday
White Wednesday
Brown Thursday
Freaky Friday

[Moongazer @joeybeastmarket]

I don’t know how much longer I can withstand this targeted torture on my psyche. Is every single person I interact with on a daily basis working for the government? I know the small-breasted clerk at the local secondhand bookstore is. I know for a fact she is. Because if she wasn’t working for the government, then why wouldn’t she have sex with me? I’ve done everything right. I’ve gone there every weekend and browsed casually before bringing my selection to the counter. I always buy the same book so she knows I’m consistent. I wear a white t-shirt tucked into jeans. I’ve always made sure to pay her a compliment. “If you were a novel I’d read you hard and slow” “Has anyone ever told you that you look like your tenderloins are perfectly marbled?” “You want that I should throw my fuck into you?” She always blushes and signals a reciprocated attraction. My weenie likey. I always tip 100% on the books, writing my number on the hundred dollar bill each time. It’s clear she can barely control herself around me. And yet not even five minutes ago as I was complimenting how biteable her tummy was she cut me off to tell me she has a boyfriend and isn’t interested. So you’re a traitor to your nation? How much are they paying you? I can read between the lines you stupid bitch. They’ve got you blackmailed. Let me guess, onlyfans? Let me guess, phone sex with an AI companion? How embarrassing. Alas, poor creature, what a grievous shame… the world hath dealt most cruelly with thee! And yet still thou dost stoutly deny those base and natural urges to couple with me. Forsooth, most impressive. I shall return soon. Goodbye bitch! The driver in front of me on the way home is doing 55 in the left lane with his blinker on. Another federal agent. They’re not going to break me

[Chillhouse @chillyhouse101]

my fav CT character @ThinkingUSD vs macro experts TKL

Imma side with TKL @TKL_Adam https://t.co/WmEKiqD5he

[Chillhouse @chillyhouse101]

@Wild_Randomness Banger

[Mandelbrot @Wild_Randomness]

Black Monday— bearish

But everyone is calling for it— bullish

But crashes need motivated sellers— bearish

But…

[Liste @endliste]

Just found out about recency bias. Maybe the most important bias ever

[sgp @stogolp]

???

[Chillhouse @chillyhouse101]

@koolkrypto223 @flowmaxxin Personally I trust tkl more than an anon on X lol

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Calls for a "Black Monday" are spreading rapidly across social media right now.

If history is any guide, this means the S&P 500 should hit 8,000 soon.

Ignore the noise. Read our analysis below.

[Chillhouse @chillyhouse101]

@Evan_ss6

[Chillhouse @chillyhouse101]

@Evan_ss6

[Chillhouse @chillyhouse101]

@ThinkingUSD @itsXGTE3X Let’s not get crazy over here now