On the robotics and physical AI VC market
Over the last few weeks and months, there’s been a lot of fear in the markets. We believe those concerns are overblown.
Let me pose a question - were OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, Coreweave, etc good investments to make in 2021/2022?
The answer here is pretty clear cut.
Were there AI companies from that period that weren’t good investments? Sure, but that’s the nature of venture and a small allocation to the top winners could still more than compensate for many poor picks.
Look at this chart. US investments in Robotics has still not even reached pre-ChatGPT levels of investment in AI. At the same time, frontier Physical AI models are already more capable than GPT3.5 at the time ChatGPT came out.
Roughly half of Anthropic/OpenAIs revenue comes from software development related use. Software development makes up 2-3% of the global labor market.
Robotics represents physical work which is roughly 50% of the global labor market.
While I’m very bullish on AI for knowledge work over the next few years, I don’t have a prediction of what happens over the next few weeks and months. Agents have only just started to become really useful for most people and that growth has yet to be realized.
Could a continued short term market correction in AI spill over into private Physical AI/robotics? Short term maybe some funding rounds for lower quality companies take longer or don’t get done - there are some pools of capital that cross over.
For the companies that otherwise are destined to win, we don’t think there will be much impact. Winners are going to win.
Fluctuations in latent demand for automated physical labor for one shouldn’t change much and if they do, matters little given how little existing penetration and superior economics that robotic solutions provide.
While I don’t have a strong macro view and am definitely not this bearish, the strongest example could be to look at the Great Depression. Tractors were invented before this period but roughly a fifth of the growth in tractor-owning farms between 1920 and 1954 came during the 1930s.
"The Dust Bowl could blacken the sky, but it could not make the horse cheaper than the tractor."
Companies that face idiosyncratic circumstances will have idiosyncratic results. Technological advances here are accelerating, not slowing and if companies can grow like weeds then we expect funding to follow even if Anthropic raises at $1.3T instead of $2T in its IPO.
Most investors have only started dabbling in this sector and there are mountains of capital looking to get proper exposure. The IPOs of SpaceX and Anthropic are historically large liquidity events that we expect to propel continued downstream VC funding for months and years.
Let me clear - there will always be a period where the wheat is separated from the chaff. Picking matters. Some capital has gone into winners but also some capital that has gone into losers and we will see the divergence in outcomes over the next few years.
But with the backdrop of agentic robotic breakthroughs, Multimodel models accelerating R&D for physical AI while also proving a new approach of code as policy, and massively scaled data collection, our optimism for the sector is unwavering
@loudchirper@Toyota_Ventures Orbital data centers & LEO satellites in the nearish term. Longer term, things get more imaginative/sci-fi (think moon base structures).
Congrats Joe, Phil, Ariel, and the Rendezvous team for hitting another milestone and having @Toyota_Ventures co-lead.
The round is the least exciting part, if I'm being honest. What they're achieving on the technicals and commercial traction front are what really excites us.
@rdvrobotics has raised a $20M Seed round co-led by @MaCVentureCap and @Toyota_Ventures. Our spacecraft launch as a flat stack of tiles that autonomously self-assemble in space so we can finally start building the satellites we need, not the ones that fit into rockets.
Payload: https://t.co/6lqmQP5Xli
@useinvestorsgo@Toyota_Ventures@AexodusCapital Tenured founding team with 10+ years of r&d under their belt before commercialisation, 10+ years in their field, or 2x exited founder in the same vertical. Govt contacts is a good indicator for non-dilutive funding pipeline down the road with potential to win primes.
@Toyota_Ventures@AexodusCapital To understand Rendezvous a bit better from a technical perspective, here's a good starting point at a very high level:
https://t.co/QLQUGyCJol
@Toyota_Ventures@AexodusCapital For a framework about how Aexodus thinks about space tech investing, here's a crowd pleaser we recently published:
https://t.co/xrGttnRZGj
You can now book our humanoid cleaners on a recurring subscription, for up to 3 hours per cleaning at https://t.co/Brl42KyISx.
Video is first take, uncut, shown at 4× speed. See the reply for detailed footage at 1× speed.
I can't sleep after this shit... Claude Code just found 12,154 photos of my face on the old Android I used for 8 years. I never took a single one of them.
The front camera was firing almost every time I picked the phone up. In bed, on the train, in the car, or when I just grabbed it to check the time.
They were real camera frames sitting in a hidden folder, each one with a timestamp and a location. None of them were in the Gallery or in Recently Deleted.
I plugged the phone into my laptop, turned on ADB and told Claude Code to look for front-camera files that weren't in my photos. It pulled a folder inside Android/data that belonged to a flashlight app I installed in 2019 and completely forgot about. 12,154 files.
I started scrolling. Almost all of it was from the last 15 months. Then I saw a file created 2 seconds ago, while I was still looking at the folder. The phone kept taking photos of me as I was reading this.
On Android 8 any app with camera permission can shoot in the background, and you get no green dot or any other warning when it does. That flashlight app had camera and location access from day one.
I uninstalled it, took camera access away from everything that doesn't need it and cleared the folder. How many of these photos already went somewhere else, I don't know.
If you want to check yours, plug it in, turn on USB debugging and ask Claude Code to find front-camera files outside your Gallery and show which apps used the camera and when.
User funds are safe!
It does look like a hack on Binance. Appreciate the quick freeze from Tether (~$971m) and Circle (~$823m).
I don't manage Binance (.com) anymore, but as a shareholder, I expect all user funds will be fully covered.
looks like the Binance hacker is swapping all the stables / coins to ETH as we speak to avoid getting frozen
still roughly $2.5B left in stables
https://t.co/Y0bv9WRJT6
https://t.co/wjpv7IO0X8
https://t.co/xEAER5KbPN
https://t.co/yN91IMi9ON
@binance Got Hacked .
Big Withdrawals From Binance Wallet Going Out .
✅✅ Unusual Exchange Outflows
19,465.69 $BTC ($1,545,132,637)
aggregated outflows from multiple exchanges in an hour
Hacker stole over 19000 bitcoins.
@atreides_sf@cremieuxrecueil@prestonjbyrne Before Bitcoin was invented, the same people were laundering it through cash. This is a human corruption problem, not a medium of exchange problem.
Use logic bro