Chris Harris

Anglicised American trader

[Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) @infraa_]

Strait of Hormuz-

Feb 27: unimpeded transit, toll-free passage

Jun 15: restricted transit, mandatory Iranian tolls

Bang up job guys

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Posting this here as a community service. You’ve all see how keen and eager was Trump to sign the deal. There is a simple reason for that.

[AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 @AMK_Mapping_]

Unconfirmed reports of explosions at Kharg Island, Iran.

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQ has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all traffic, including oil tankers and commercial vessels, warning that any transit will be targeted.

- If enforced, this would not simply be a naval measure. It would mark the operationalization of a broader Iranian strategic logic that has been emerging in recent days.

- Tehran would be saying that if U.S. strikes reach Iranian territory, the confrontation will not remain geographically confined to Iran. The costs will be transferred to the global corridors through which energy, trade and military power move.

- In my view this is where Wahdat al-Mamarrat -the unity of strategic corridors -becomes crucial. Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea are not separate files in this reading. They are parts of one deterrence architecture.

Together with Wahdat al-Sahat-the unity of fronts-the message is: Iran does not accept a fragmented war, where Washington and Israel can strike one arena while expecting stability in another.

- The key question now is whether this is political signaling or actual maritime interdiction. If tanker movements change, insurance costs spike, or navies reposition, then this becomes one of the most serious escalatory moments of the crisis.

#Iran #Hormuz #PersianGulf

[*Tyrone Bloomberg @crcuitbreaker]

TRUMP TO KEEP EXERTING MAXIMUM PRESSURE TO GET A DEAL DONE: FOX

[Mohamad Ahwaze @MohamadAhwaze]

كل المؤشرات ترجّح أن يكون الرد الأميركي خلال الساعات المقبلة

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

The global oil system has offset almost 90% of Hormuz barrels

17.5 mmb/d has been offset with bypass pipelines, reduced Chinese imports, increased US export, SPR releases & demand destruction

#Oil #Hormuz #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #DemandDestruction #EnergySecurity #Commodities

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

JUST RUMORS?
Iranian opposition media are claiming that IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi may have been killed in Israeli airstrikes inside Tehran.
Vahidi had reportedly issued a direct threat against Israel earlier today.
There is no official confirmation at this stage.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Now waiting for Barak, Pakistani fellas and Al Arabiya to pop out of their dens.

If I was the Houthis, I'd start mining the Bab-al-Mandel right away for good measure.

[PharmD_KS @PharmD_KS]

Look, you have to be far away from a deal so that you can once again be close to a deal 💪

[Yamco @Yam_Trades]

$COLO - Columbia ETF
Colombian Election is on Sunday, May 31, 2026

$COLO 7.6x Bullish Volume
$COLO September Buy 12000x50C
I guess someone thinks its favorable to their market?

I have no skin in the game - just saw this on my flow scanner and thought it was odd with the elections this week.

[גיא עזריאל Guy Azriel @GuyAz]

Breaking: Amid questions over possible new strikes on Iran or ongoing negotiations, a source familiar with the matter tells me The White House has assured Israel that any agreement will include the full removal of enriched uranium from Iranian soil.

No word on the Iranian missile program, the sponsoring of terror proxies or sanctions relief - other matters that are likely to keep Israeli officials without sleep in the years to come.

[Mohamad Ahwaze @MohamadAhwaze]

هام جدًا: هذا ما يتداول داخل الأوساط الإيرانية المقربة من دوائر صنع القرار في طهران حول المفاوضات الجارية بين إيران والولايات المتحدة:

بحسب التسريبات المتداولة، طرحت واشنطن اتفاقاً شاملاً يتم التوقيع عليه دفعة واحدة، يتضمن:

إنهاء الحرب في جميع الجبهات.
رفع الحصار الأمريكي عن مضيق هرمز.
إعادة فتح المضيق وفق الرسوم والمسارات البحرية التي تريدها طهران.
الإفراج عن 25٪ من الأموال الإيرانية المجمدة، بما يقارب 25 مليار دولار.
منح إعفاء مؤقت لبيع النفط الإيراني لمدة 30 يوماً.

أما جوهر التفاوض فيتركز على الملف النووي، ويتضمن:

إخراج 400 كيلوغرام من اليورانيوم المخصب من إيران، وفي أفضل الأحوال نقله إلى دولة ثالثة.
قبول تخصيب إيراني محدود بنسبة 3.67٪ فقط.
إغلاق معظم المنشآت النووية، باستثناء مفاعل طهران المخصص للاستخدامات الطبية.

في المقابل، تصر إيران على أن يتم تنفيذ أي تفاهم على مراحل مع فترة تحقق تمتد 30 يوماً، لضمان قدرتها أولاً على بيع النفط والحصول على مكاسب اقتصادية قبل الدخول في الالتزامات النووية.

وتشير التسريبات إلى أن نقطة الخلاف الأساسية تتمحور حول:

رفض إيران تسليم 400 كيلوغرام من اليورانيوم.
تمسك طهران بحق التخصيب ورفض تعليق البرنامج النووي لسنوات طويلة.
رفض إيران إرسال اليورانيوم إلى الصين أو روسيا، مقابل إصرار أمريكي على السيطرة المباشرة عليه.
الخلاف حول طبيعة الاتفاق؛ إيران تريد اتفاقاً مرحلياً، بينما تسعى واشنطن إلى اتفاق شامل وفوري.

كما ترى طهران، وفق هذه الأوساط، أن الولايات المتحدة قد لا تلتزم عملياً بأي تعهدات بعيدة المدى، وأن أقصى ما يمكن تقديمه هو تعليق مؤقت لبعض العقوبات، لا رفعها بالكامل.

وتبقى هواجس إيران الأمنية قائمة، حيث تعتبر أن أي اتفاق مع واشنطن لا يقدم ضمانات حقيقية تمنع إسرائيل من تنفيذ اغتيالات أو عمليات عسكرية ضد إيران.

[Rogue POTUS Staff @RoguePOTUSStaff]

Breaking.

A squadron of F/A 18 Super Hornets just took off from Joint Base Andrews, and is now engaged in a mission over Maryland skies. The squadron that's been deployed is apparently a highly trained group of specialists.

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari appears to have found the perfect solution for reducing tensions in the Persian Gulf:

- Russia “took back” Crimea, China wants to “take back” Taiwan… therefore Iran should seriously reconsider “taking back” Bahrain, described as the country’s former 14th province.

- For historical consistency, it is also worth remembering that Shariatmadari was among the Iranian hardline voices who, years ago, strongly promoted the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz in the event of war.

#Iran #IraWar

[Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi]

War may be imminent. In case of further military aggression, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Axis of Resistance will go much further and strike much harder than in the 39-day Epstein War.

[CME Group @CMEGroup]

Meet 54 Single Stock futures, arriving this summer.*

Explore the full list ➡️ https://t.co/Y3izGpgLsm

*Pending completion of all regulatory review and processes. List of contracts are subject to change.

[Aimen Dean @AimenDean]

Having spoken to a senior Saudi official about the NBC article regarding Project Freedom, I honestly think the article completely misunderstood what actually happened because it was written almost entirely from a US perspective rather than from a GCC perspective.

First of all, contrary to the impression being created, the GCC were NOT blindsided by Project Freedom.

They knew about it beforehand. Roughly half a day before. The airspace was opened. The facilities were available. Nobody objected. There was broad support for the idea because, at least publicly, Project Freedom was supposed to be a limited humanitarian-security operation aimed at relieving the 22,000 sailors trapped around Hormuz and allowing shipping lanes to breathe again.

Nobody in the GCC had a problem with that.

But here is the issue .. and this is the part the NBC article completely misses.
If you are asking GCC countries to participate in such an operation, then you need to be upfront about the rules of engagement from day one!

You cannot say:
“Please open your skies and bases, expose your energy infrastructure”
…only for everyone to discover afterwards that the actual American policy was apparently:

“Oh by the way, if Iran attacks you with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones in several waves, we still won’t retaliate because Donald Trump is busy chasing The Deal.”

And this is exactly what shocked the Saudis. Not the Iranian attack itself.

The UAE/GCC expected retaliation.. This is Iran. Nobody in the Gulf is naïve about that anymore.
The shock came from the American reaction afterwards.

You had attacks against Emirati infrastructure. Fujairah was targeted. Multiple waves involving drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles.

And Washington’s response was basically:
“Meh. Minor incident. Let’s not escalate.”
Minor incident?!

For the GCC that was madness.

Because what Riyadh, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi suddenly realized was that Trump’s obsession with preserving “The Deal” had apparently reached the point where Gulf energy infrastructure was now considered acceptable collateral damage in the pursuit of his precious negotiations.

Everything became:
The deal.
The deal.
The beautiful deal.
The greatest deal.
The mother of all deals.
The ultimate “Art of the deal”
Or perhaps, more accurately:
The ultimate fart of the deal.

Because from the Gulf perspective, this stopped looking like strategy and started looking like desperate political vanity mixed with deadly wishful thinking.

Had the GCC been told beforehand:
“Listen, whatever Iran does to you during Project Freedom, America will not retaliate because we do not want to endanger negotiations…”
…they would have almost certainly refused participation from the start.

The problem was not Project Freedom itself.

The problem was discovering midway through the operation that the GCC countries were apparently expected to sit there quietly as punching bags while Washington played negotiation theatrics with Tehran. So the Saudis and Kuwaitis pulled plug!

Because the GCC know something US usually forgets:

Iran plays the long game.
You can freeze enrichment.
Pause enrichment.
Delay enrichment.
Sign ten agreements.
Twenty agreements.
Forty agreements.

But if the infrastructure remains…
If the centrifuges remain…
If the IRGC remains…
If the proxy network remains…

then eventually the game resumes.

There will be another distraction.
Another pandemic.
Another financial crisis.
Another war somewhere else.
Another paralysis in Washington.
And while the world is distracted, enrichment quietly resumes again.

Ironically, much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile expanded during the pandemic years precisely because global attention was elsewhere.

Judging by the reaction to the UAE attacks, the Saudis and Kuwaitis concluded that Trump’s version of deterrence had become:

“Please absorb the missiles quietly because I’m trying to write the sequel to “The Fart of the Deal.”

[Weijia Jiang @weijia]

.@SecRubio will brief reporters tomorrow at the first White House press briefing since @PressSec went on maternity leave:

[PoliticalPics @PoliticalPics]

Rumours are flying around Westminster a big move is close !!