Christian Basar

Host of the Historical Thoughts & Interpretations Podcast. Russian IR, military, and history. Follows/RTs do not mean endorsements.

[Christian Basar @ChristianBasar]

The podcast is on Telegram! Subscribe for podcast updates and occasional posts! #historypodcast

https://t.co/Q2zciN3EP3

[Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti]

On that debate between two... let's say more colourful than insightful figures, @admcollingwood has some v pertinent comments about the dangers of crude comparisons of nominal GDP

[Volodymyr Ishchenko @Volod_Ishchenko]

It grows from the core assumption of the mainstream in post-Soviet Russia studies. They cannot seriously think of any other "normal" outcome for Russia. That assumption has led not only to bad policy advice but also to repeated failures to predict all the major developments during the war.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

As Arundhati Roy said, what is under the rubble in Gaza is not only the bodies of countless Palestinians killed by Israel, but also the carcass of Western Liberal Democracy...

[BenAris @bneeditor]

It’s not “short lived optimism”

It’s “media hype blows up when faced with reality”

This is all been quite an interesting exercise really. Ahead of the Turkish NATO summit bankova went balls to the wall to create a media message that would be politically advantage when Zelensky sat down with Trump - the whole “turning point“ meme.

Was so interesting with how fantastically successful that was. How easily bankova could string the msm along. How willing & herdlike the followed as he pulled them by the nose. How the mainstream media got totally behind it. How you had people like Norway Stubb coming out with ridiculous statements like “Ukraine has already won the war”.

Even more interesting was milbloggers like deep state suspended publishing their maps which show the Russian advance in Donbas for nearly a month which created a vacuum of information so that Ukraine could sell this line

Once a summit was over and Zelensky briefly got his patriot deal then then wheels started turning again and the whole story collapsed

But it’s been weeks and western press is only now starting to get its feet back on the ground. I’m even then not quite completely.

The story is about optimism fading when actually is about Ukraine facing to feet in the face we’re still not there yet

The reality is that after operation wildberries started and Russia hit back there’s no hiding from the fact the White House is still out of the war - and that w/o America’s interception missiles Ukraine is truly screwed

Nevertheless the momentum that’s been built up is still making it difficult for the non-Ukrainian experts in the Western press – which is most of them – struggling to see the reality of what’s going on.

There’s still some people pushing the turning point thing and Ukraine is making “progress“ on the battlefield when the Donbas is close to falling completely but after 4 1/2 years so many people have invested so much into the “Ukraine is a hero” story that they are unable to back off.

Those publications that do attempt to do the negative story then hailed as being cutting edge and insightful hacks. Whereas for those of us who follow the story closely, they should’vent have written the other story at all.

[BenAris @bneeditor]

Actually what comes out that anyone who seriously thinks Masha & the bear is a threat to our way of life has some serious objectivity problems.

We are in a bad place when hate trumps debate

[Balazs Jarabik @BalazsJarabik]

1/ Yesterday the fresh edition of Essential Ukraine (#24) was published. In time to capture several important shifts in the Russia-Ukraine war. Some of these made headlines in exaggerated form. This report tries to explain the key trends w/ grounded and field-based analysis.

[Christian Basar @ChristianBasar]

@bneeditor @natashafili64 I was scratching my head a bit but then realized it was satirical. 🤣

[Christian Basar @ChristianBasar]

@jkenney More context here: https://t.co/gZbZULQMIr

Specifically, Point 3.

[BenAris @bneeditor]

Why isn’t anyone drawing a parallel with the start of the Ukraine war? Everyone is condemned putin for believing that he could get victory in three days and it turned into a four year war.

Trump is making exactly the same mistakes. He has just gone into a very similar asymmetric war, fighting a very similar enemy that’s fighting back with the same drones Ukraine has used so effectively to negate russias power.

He also seems to have assumed that the overwhelming might of the US military - exactly Putin’s calculation - means that he would would win in a few days. that’s clearly not going to happen.

It seems that Trump has learned nothing of the lessons of the Ukraine war. He’s even turned down Zelensky‘s offered to help to counter the Iranian drones. He still thinks his sea power is going to defeat Iranian desert power.

Instead of embracing Zelensky as he should be, he actually roasted him for not doing Putin‘s deal. This is madness. Trump is the worst president ever?

[Marta Havryshko @HavryshkoMarta]

🚀The 🇪🇺, when Russian bombs hit a school in Ukraine:

“This is a war crime. This is genocide. Putin is Hitler. He will be held accountable.
Here are 20 packages of sanctions.
We already canceled Netrebko concert in Berlin and froze the EU bank accounts of Russian citizens.”

🚀The 🇪🇺, when U.S/Israeli bombs hit a school in Iran:

“We are closely monitoring this complicated situation and express our deep concern. We call all sides for de-escalation. Meanwhile, look at the map of Iran's strikes on seven countries today.
We stand with the people of Iran.
Democracy is on its way, flying all over Iran already. You can smell it in the air."

[Christian Basar @ChristianBasar]

Shame on all of them. Every single one.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

Europe made "upholding the rules-based order" its central argument in urging global rejection of Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Now the German Chancellor calls the legality of the US action against Venezuela "complex." (!!)

Instead of rebuilding its standing after failing in Gaza, Germany chooses to actively destroy what remains of its standing.

[BenAris @bneeditor]

This is such a stupid position. It’s what started the war n the first place

- Nato refuses to admit Ukr to Nato or even say it’s possible when talking to ze
- Nato refuses to confirm this stance when talking to Russia

Everyone is pissed off & ukr left in limbo

What’s so maddening is ukr already agreed to give up its nato ambitions in 2022, but only IF west gives it real security guarantees.

West refuses to do that too (see kallas comments yesterday) which again leaves ukr in limbo

[Christian Basar @ChristianBasar]

The disclaimer "This thumbnail is AI-generated; there could be errors in the image" is also important. 🙃

[Christian Basar @ChristianBasar]

Starting yesterday, I made AI-generated thumbnails for the podcast episodes on YouTube. I feel there's a risk of them being "AI slop;" checking spelling and redoing prompts are important! But I'm happy with these. I promise you that it is me in the episodes!

[Eldar Mamedov @EldarMamedov4]

The logic of collective guilt is the logic of lynch mobs and authoritarian regimes. It ignores the bravery of Russian dissidents and protesters. This isn’t justice—it’s sanctimonious bullying disguised as principle preached by entitled nobodies safe in their own echo chambers.

[Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin]

Russia is also Europe - historically, culturally and politically. No more idiotic schisms and walls in Europe solve the problem.

[Christian Basar @ChristianBasar]

@shetlerjones @bneeditor And it must be remembered, too, that Biden was furious when the ICC gave Netanyahu a warrant for arrest - and hosted Netanyahu. But he welcomed the ICC warrant for Putin.

[Tatiana Stanovaya @Stanovaya]

A question: do people really think that if Russia takes all four regions it claimed in 2022, the war will stop?

Every winter, the same discussion reappears: that Russia is stuck, that winter will stall any major offensive, and that another mobilisation might be needed—so maybe Moscow will have to rethink the war. But that misses the real point. Capturing more territory is not the main goal; it is just a tool. Putin’s real aim is to pressure Kyiv into accepting Russia’s demands. One of these—though not the key one—is to make Ukraine formally concede the annexed areas in talks, admitting it cannot win militarily. But Putin is not fighting for land alone, even though he has a clear idea of which parts he wants. Territory matters, but it is secondary to the bigger objectives.

The Istanbul drafts of 2022 made that clear. The Kremlin’s focus was on turning Ukraine into a demilitarised state, without any Western military presence and governed under politically compliant conditions. Even if Russia were to take full control of the four regions it annexed in September 2022, that would not mean victory for Putin. It would not bring him closer to his wider goals: keeping Ukraine out of NATO, limiting its armed forces, and pushing political changes favourable to Moscow.

When people look only at the front line and say that Russia is not winning (which, in military terms, is true), they miss the wider picture. Nothing prevents Putin from continuing intense strikes across Ukraine to pressure Kyiv back into talks—on “Istanbul plus” terms—to end the war on Russian maximalist conditions. That could change only if Ukraine were able to launch a successful counteroffensive and regain lost territory. Yet such a move would also bring the risk of nuclear escalation.

[William Dalrymple @DalrympleWill]

The words you are looking for @Reuters are 'ethnic cleansing' and 'genocide'. What is the point of being a news agency if you're too scared to speak the truth clearly and honestly?

[Christian Basar @ChristianBasar]

I continued my #historicalgaming series, again playing #WhiteStarStudio's "Thriving City: Song." While playing (distractedly at times), I discuss Neo-Confucianism in China's Song Dynasty.

https://t.co/2jSkZaKgXL