ClaymmorezChart

Posting stocks market charts and so, and share interesting insights from charts!

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

$SPX $NDX Black swan 2026🦢

1. Supply Destruction (Blockade👉Oil, LNG, commodity shutdown)

2. Demand Destruction (Essentials too high👉indiv & corps shutting down)

3. Global Recession (Demand diminished and economic contraction)

If goes like Covid it could look like this

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

So when a one time thing cause earnings sucks people will look at it as a one time thing but when it make earnings look good it is not just a one time thing?😂

BTW $AMZN FCF also turn negative but whatever who cares?

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$AMZN (Amazon) #earnings are out:

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

$META First time since 2022 one of the $MAGS posted a lower than expected number in earnings

And we are supposed to believe AI slope will get bigger and bigger

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

$META DUMPS ON AN EARNINGS MISS AND INCREASED CAPEX 🩸

2026 CAPEX $130B - $145B est

❌ Q2 EPS: $6.18 vs $7.13 est
✅ Q2 REV: $60.801B vs $59.495B est

🟥 -7.18%

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

When good news can no longer pump shit and bad news crashing shit you know memory bubble is done

$SKHY $MU $EWY

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

SK HYNIX $SKHY Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $54.6B (Est. $57.7B) 🔴; -5.4%
🔹 Operating Profit: $41.6B (Est. $44.2B) 🔴; 76.3% operating margin
🔹 DRAM ASP: +~30% QoQ
🔹 NAND ASP: +mid-50% QoQ

2026 Market Outlook:
🔹 DRAM Demand Growth: +mid-20% YoY
🔹 NAND Demand Growth: +high-teens% YoY

Business Highlights:
🔹 Long-Term Supply Agreements: 10 customers
🔸 Smartphone and PC sales temporarily adjusted on challenges securing memory volumes; growth expected to recover as supply tightness eases
🔸 Big-tech customers expanding infrastructure investment and memory procurement on surging AI service growth and a shortage of computing capacity

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

While majority disagree I think Warsh will present it as the 2Y yield is screaming hike even after crazy manipulation on oil price

FED have no choice but to hike twice this year. Must started by next month and more impact on market if delayed

So better start doing in July

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week in a surprise move.

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

And people projected $GOOGL will not be FCF negative this year lol

The AI capex shit is coming to an end this year

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Google $GOOGL just reported negative free cash flow for the first time per Fiscal AI

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

So Big 5 will need to find 3 trillon dollar to fund the whole AI thing in 2028 alone

Currently less than 1 trillion and FCF turning negative

Yeah make sense

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

The memory shortage visualized

What happens after that forecast is my question

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

I think we heard the same thing from $ORCL literally one year ago?🤣

Look at their stock price now and check $SKHYV in a year

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

SK Hynix CEO: Memory chip shortage may persist past 2030

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

@unusual_whales If hyperscalers going to bankrupt themselves

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

$MU will not be able to get 25B investment when AI capex is done let alone 250B lol

Another stargate bullshit

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 JUST NOW: President Trump throws the Democrats into shock after confirming a "MASSIVE $250 BILLION" investment from Micron to build chips in the US

"BIGGER INVESTMENTS JUST KEEP COMING! The Trump Effect is REAL! Micron is accelerating its U.S. spending to a MASSIVE 250 BILLION DOLLARS to build Memory Chips right here in the U.S.A."

"For years, the Do Nothing Dumocrats bogged down American Industry with crushing Red Tape, complete Economic Mismanagement, and ridiculous Woke Mandates. They stalled everything. Not anymore! We are slashing the Radical Left's Job killing Regulations, and actually GETTING SHOVELS IN THE GROUND."

"We are reshooting Manufacturing to America, and securing our Supply Chains. This means THOUSANDS of GREAT JOBS for Hardworking Patriots all across our Country. True Economic Security is MADE IN AMERICA. 🇺🇸MAGA! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

@wallstengine Catch Google in 6 months without Google doing anything?

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

One of the leaders of "AI BUILDOUT FOREVER GROW"

If $META $MSFT stock price cut lets say another 20-30% what do you think they gonna do?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$META to build a new $10B DC in Canada to expand AI capacity.

So much for the media framing of “Meta Compute”as overbuilding and cutting capex.

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

Dude just casually calling a bubble cheap lol

But he won’t do the opposite when the stock is flying

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Be Samsung at $1.24T:

> market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices
> proceeds to hikes dram by 20%
> releases earnings
> most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL
> operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y

market: sells off Samsung -7%

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

And people still arguing $META is not selling excess AI compute🤣

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Meta Platforms $META CEO Mark Zuckerberg just said at an internal town hall meeting that

- AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED'

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

These arguments today show how deep the root planted into ppl "AI capex is forever growing"

Meanwhile $META

- going FCF negative
- Never a cloud provider (Others are long before AI boom)
- AI model flopping

But yeah compute is scarce and Zuck just want to be new AWS

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Everyone says Meta has overcapacity.

What if they are just starting a new hyperscaler business line?

This may be the new AWS

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

These accounts are panicking to express a view “ $META is not capex slow or cutting”

Tells you how deep we are in this bubble🤣

My bet Zuck will announce capex slow/ stop growing in July earnings

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

There’s a lot of disinformation going around about $META “cutting capex” because they “overbuilt”.

This is an “if” they have excess capacity.

And it looks like the opposite right now:

Hyperscalers like $GOOGL are so compute constrained that they had to cut allocations to Meta back in March.

Since Meta was using too much for internal projects.

Meta was immediately constrained so it looks like they were forced to immediately sign massive $48B+ contracts with Neoclouds like $CRWV and $NBIS.

Meta is selling excess capacity if there’s any, especially since their large contracts are take or pay from the Neoclouds.

If anything, I’m expecting their guided capex to go up as they build out more independent capacity.

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

@BoringBiz_ The bullish argument now is they lost in AI model but somehow will keep up the capex🤷

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

$META is far behind in AI labs so turning EXCESS compute to cash but somehow their $165 billion capex is not going to slow down or cut?

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Too much confusion about $META’s so called “excess compute.”

It doesn’t mean demand is declining.

You have to accept that most of the demand is concentrated at three big AI labs that have real consumer and B2B businesses—OpenAI, Anthropic, Google.

$META and $SPCX have excess compute because their AI businesses are yet to be competitive. What matters is whether the top 3 frontier labs can make productive use of extra compute. So far they achieved that as their revenues closely tracked their compute capacity.

Also look at the exploding inference demand from open-weight models and it’s not hard to see compute supply will remain tight for years.

Compute is like capital now. Somebody has capital but can’t deploy it productively doesn’t mean others can’t deploy it as well.

Long $META, long neoclouds.

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

@compound248 Just somehow AI compute is so scarce and meta can't fully use all of their own and have to sell it

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

@JaguarAnalytics Semis also a toast. All the price hike and way over demand turns out one of your biggest buyer couldn't even use up their own compute and have to sell them to avoid losing too much money lol

[ClaymmorezChart @ClaymmorezChart]

This is MEGA bearish for $SOXX $SMH

2026 story is compute demand is 200 300 even 500%

Turns out 1 of the biggest $META didn't use 100% of their own and selling "EXCESS" AI compute

Meaning Semis is 500% bubble ATM

Anyway doesn't mean $MAGS going up unless capex cut

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*META IS BUILDING A CLOUD BUSINESS TO SELL EXCESS AI COMPUTE