seems obvious but:
things that are changing rapidly:
1. context windows
2. intelligence / ability to reason within context
3. performance on any given benchmark
4. cost per token
things that are not changing much:
1. humans
2. human behavior, preferences, affinities
3. tools, integrations, infrastructure
4. single core cpu performance
therefore,
ngmi:
1. "i found this method to cut 15% context"
2. "our method improves retrieval performance 10% by using hybrid search"
3. "our finetuned model is cheaper than opus at this benchmark"
4. "our harness does this better because we invented this multi agent system"
5. "we're building a memory system"
6. "context graphs"
7. "we trained an in house specialized rl model to improve task performance in X benchmark at Y% cost reduction"
wagmi:
1. product/ui
3. customer acquisition
4. integrations
5. fast linting, ci, skills, feedback for agents
6. background agent infra to parallelize more work
7. speed up your agent verification loops
8. training your users, connecting to their systems and working with their data, meeting them where they are
William on how an early stage employee takes way more risk than a founder:
"If I'm making $400-500K at Google or Meta and go to an early stage company to get 1% of this company and make $90,000. I've now changed the trajectory of my life, that's a lot of risk.
But as a founder, you're not. It's a much higher likelihood that of the next round, regardless of your company, you'll be able to sell some secondary. If it shuts down, you can get employed at a great company, and you have a CEO on your resume.
That first employee, they have first employee at a failed company. That's actually not a great resume line item.
So we've de-risked the founder, but we haven't de-risked the early stage employee."
I have so much gratitude to people who wrote extremely complex software character-by-character. It already feels difficult to remember how much effort it really took.
Thank you for getting us to this point.
"Go all the way until it hurts. If you're doing something and it's easy, it's not valuable." - @travisk
"If anyone says a strategic thing was easy, I'm like, 'You messed up. You could have gone way further. More competitive advantage. More differentiation. Get it together.'"
this feeling will pass, and the mourning will evolve into curiosity about what you can build and learn with such a powerful sidekick by your side. im tacking 10x harder problems than i ever dreamt of, and feeling joy and excitement from programming again. we were just forced one level of abstraction up. better accept it than to fight it.
@bstewartny @techtoby__@vercel@Railway True, but let’s be honest a vast majority of software being shipped today can and are being deployed to these services, especially with committees like winterTC creating standards. These services are just wrappers around aws e.t.c creating a better dev experience.
@techtoby__@vercel@Railway So you're not necessarily safe just by putting "all your effort in to understanding how infrastructure on cloud platforms works", best thing to do is leveraging AI to be more productive in whatever you're doing and finding new problems to solve combining your skills with AI.
@techtoby__@vercel@Railway I know, but if a company gets to the point where they have automated a lot of engineering work with AI then with tools like vercel and railway infra is not really a big issue. Also maybe at some point a combination of claude cowork and code could automate most infra work.
a lot of people have been asking me (zero people have asked me) for my read on this so here it goes:
offloading work to AI will lead to higher productivity in the short term, but brain atrophy in the long term
using AI to learn how to better tackle your tasks (and learning generally) will not lead to higher productivity in the short term, but be beneficial for your productivity and cognition long term
pick your poison anon
Just launched Bunge Bits. A project turning hours of Kenyan parliamentary proceedings into bite-sized summaries.
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Stripe 🤝iOS developers
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Docs in the 🧵