Carlos 💫

+EV Sports Bettor helping individuals pick the sharpest plays daily ⬇️💰

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

Patiently waiting on my turn ✅

[Playboi Trades @playboi_trades]

Because of trading, I’ve been able to give my parents an extra $5k/month, mom and dad each

To many, that might not seem “a lot,” but I’m feeling beyond blessed to have even get this far as someone who used to dream of making $10k/year thru trading

Keep pushing, don’t give up

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

@PlusEV Thank you for your knowledge and you upside tools brother. Cashing me out daily 🙏🏽🫡

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

If you do not understand EV betting and want to start, here’s a good understanding of how the market moves.

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Here’s the lastest updates people were asking for adding 2+ years of data to Polymarket and ProphetX.

None of this should be be surprising - major exchanges/prediction markets are all (still) way ahead of sportsbooks.

Player prop data in the replies👇

[Matt Downs @PlusEV]

Here’s the lastest updates people were asking for adding 2+ years of data to Polymarket and ProphetX.

None of this should be be surprising - major exchanges/prediction markets are all (still) way ahead of sportsbooks.

Player prop data in the replies👇

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

1st Tips and tricks video on the channel go tap in!

https://t.co/KcSHn3gj9k

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

Live on kick looking for late night value come tune in!

https://t.co/Nv2xlSF9xq

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

Cash these slips, they were all sent through my discord.

As always shoutout @UpsideTools for the data 🤘🏽

1 week free trial then it’s $20 a month.
🫡⬇️💰

https://t.co/Sr8L20OdFZ

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

🔴⚫ CLOS’S CASH CORNER 💰

📚 WHAT IS +EV BETTING? (POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE)

If you’re serious about sports betting, understanding +EV is one of the most important things you can learn. 📈

🧵 THREAD BELOW 👇

1️⃣ WHAT DOES +EV MEAN? 💰

+EV stands for Positive Expected Value.

It means placing a bet where the potential payout is greater than what the true probability of winning suggests it should be.

You’re not just betting on who you THINK will win.

You’re betting when the ODDS ARE IN YOUR FAVOR relative to the actual probability.

2️⃣ HOW DOES +EV BETTING WORK? 📊

Sportsbooks assign odds to every betting market.

However, different sportsbooks may offer different prices for the exact same outcome.

Example:

🔴 Sportsbook A: Player Over 24.5 Points (+120)

⚫ Estimated Fair Odds: +100

At +100, the implied probability is 50%.

At +120, your break-even probability is only 45.45%.

If the true probability is 50%, you’re getting a BETTER price than the bet is actually worth.

That’s a +EV opportunity! 🔥

3️⃣ HOW DO YOU CALCULATE +EV? 🧮

The formula:

EV = (Win Probability × Profit) − (Loss Probability × Stake)

Example: $100 bet at +120 odds.

✅ Estimated win probability: 50%

💵 Profit if you win: $120

❌ Loss if you lose: $100

EV = (0.50 × $120) − (0.50 × $100)

EV = $60 − $50 = +$10

That’s a +10% expected ROI on your wager.

This does NOT mean you’ll make $10 every time.

It means that if your probability estimate is accurate, the average expected profit is $10 per $100 wagered over many similar opportunities.

4️⃣ WHY SHARP SPORTSBOOKS MATTER 🎯

Not every sportsbook prices markets equally.

Sharp sportsbooks are useful references because their odds may reflect informed betting activity and efficient market pricing.

Examples include:

🏦 Pinnacle

🏦 Circa Sports

🏦 Bookmaker

🏦 Betfair Exchange

By comparing sportsbook odds and removing the bookmaker’s margin (vig), bettors can estimate fair probabilities.

⚠️ Even sharp sportsbooks can be wrong, and not every market is equally efficient.

5️⃣ DOES +EV MEAN YOU’LL WIN EVERY BET? ❌

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

A +EV bet can lose.

You can even experience extended losing streaks while consistently making positive expected-value decisions.

The goal isn’t to win every slip.

The goal is to identify wagers with favorable prices and make disciplined decisions over a large sample.

6️⃣ BANKROLL MANAGEMENT IS KEY 💵

Even with +EV betting, managing your bankroll is essential.

A conservative approach might risk 0.5%–1% of your bankroll per bet.

Example: $1,000 bankroll

💰 0.5 unit = $5

💰 1 unit = $10

Avoid chasing losses, increasing stakes out of frustration, or risking money you can’t afford to lose.

7️⃣ THE BIGGEST LESSON 🧠

❌ Don’t chase guaranteed locks.

❌ Don’t assume a high win rate means profitability.

❌ Don’t blindly trust estimated EV percentages.

✅ Compare prices across sportsbooks.

✅ Understand implied probability.

✅ Look for reliable fair-value estimates.

✅ Track your bets and results.

✅ Focus on long-term decision quality.

💰 CLOS’S CASH CORNER 💰

WE DON’T CHASE LOCKS. WE SEARCH FOR VALUE. 📈

🔴 1-WEEK FREE TRIAL

⚫ $20/MONTH AFTER TRIAL

📩 DM TO LEARN MORE!

⚠️ Responsible Gambling: Must be of legal gambling age and located where betting is permitted. No wager or strategy guarantees profits. Bet responsibly and never risk money needed for essential expenses.

#PositiveEV #EVBetting #SportsBettingEducation #PlayerProps #BankrollManagement #ClosCashCorner

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

+EV Betting has generated such easy cash flow from my phone / pc and I couldn’t be any more grateful than what I am now.

If you guys have no clue on what this is read down below. ⬇️⬇️

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

Folks, don’t be on yo team fr. They just wanna see the playbook. 📓

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

How you gone win if you scared to take the risk

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

@freebandkl @Flashyasf You feel me

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

I’m a Hustling mf fr I love making & having my own moneyyy

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

Cheapest +EV pick services in the market. Get your moneys worth and a true understanding of what money management is today!

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

Daily Bread is made and I have the cheapest services in the market right now!! 1 week FREE TRIAL, then it’s $20 a month. Start slow build your bankroll and turn this into a new source of income! Link is in my bio to get access to my plays!

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

https://t.co/Sr8L20NFQr

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

Daily plays are always sent to my discord ! Come join and get your moneys worth 🫡🤷🏽‍♂️ Link down below 💪🏽 #SportsGambling #

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

A couple of sweat free slips from yesterday 🚀💰 shoutout @UpsideTools for the plays as always 🫡

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

Gotta love daily straight bet cashes. Thank you 💪🏽 @UpsideTools

[𝔽𝕝𝕒𝕞𝕫𝕪 ♔ 🥷🏽 @hw_flamzy]

I’m chasing the kind of money that’ll change the family tree.

[Carlos 💫 @closbets]

@DodgysDD Need to lock back in. This is my sign.