Chris Manoussakis

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@PatriotsStatsR Recommend the lecture series that goes alongside it if you aren’t already watching

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@PatriotsStatsR Have started with with Statistical Rethinking, but will give this a crack too. Cheers

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@PatriotsStatsR Awesome! Thanks a bunch, will take a look

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@BenwWee @jamesday87 The goat

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@johnloydroberts @MatthewBerryTMR Herbert, the swing piece imo, made it that

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@johnloydroberts @MatthewBerryTMR 12th, John

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@jroell86 @PFF_Eric Bottom left is good here

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@alittlefitness Ignore me, missed the instructions part 😅

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@alittlefitness Out of interest, how is similarity defined/measured?

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@LineBreakerAFL @b_gogos might be able to help

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@CapitalCityCody @Chas_R_Roberts 0.115 is your ave

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@CapitalCityCody @Chas_R_Roberts It's good to be challenged! Got an off-season to look at some refinement

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@CapitalCityCody @Chas_R_Roberts Notwithstanding, could always play around with different definitions to see what is reasonable.

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@CapitalCityCody @Chas_R_Roberts This is probably where using the rookie draft attempts to proxy available talent and is a "market" measure. Minimum contracts are mentioned alongside replacement level a bunch from what I've read, so views aren't exclusively roster based. Exhibit A of why it's a bit fluffy!

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@CapitalCityCody @Chas_R_Roberts They're structurally different approaches imo, based on roster, as opposed to looking at market available talent (which yes is maybe a little abstract)

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@CapitalCityCody @Chas_R_Roberts I'd say the reason for replacement would matter, specifically injured star players, but it would be a bit of an exercise to strip those out. Again, not sure there is a right or wrong way to do it tbh (e.g. some NFL methods use undrafted FAs)

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@CapitalCityCody @Chas_R_Roberts Not at all! Given the data available, it may be tricky to discriminate between players who are truly up and down between the AFL and 2nd leagues, and those who are injured (unless I'm missing something), if that's what your replacement definition leaned towards

[Chris Manoussakis @cmanoussakis]

@CapitalCityCody @Chas_R_Roberts Replacement level is a pretty fluffy concept in general, could probably be tweaked in some respects.

I don’t think there is a consensus view across sports. Given there aren’t street free agents that could be picked up, the Rookie draft felt like a reasonable proxy.

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

Intrateam player performance distributions:

Teams are grouped by ladder position to create a picture of successful team structure in 2020. Players are grouped in deciles on performance

Top 4 sides:
highest % of 90-100th percentile players
lowest % of 70-100th
lowest % of 0-30th