Charles Roberts

Footy, maths and plenty of stats.

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

Enjoyed speaking to @ByMarcMcGowan about @afl_war and my different perspective on AFL player performance

[Marc McGowan 🗣✍️👨🏻‍💻📰 @ByMarcMcGowan]

Going to WAR has a much different interpretation in sport. ⁦I spoke to analytics gurus @afl_war⁩ and ⁦@Chas_R_Roberts⁩ about how they adapted a player valuation metric popularised in US sports for AFL purposes. 👇🏻

https://t.co/7XuJS3fS93

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

Decent supercoach season. Getting in before it falls apart. Survived last week with a 🍩.

Stuck in the teens for 2 months. Hopefully hit single digits soon.

6 rounds. 2 trades.
Powell. Nank. Steele. Fisher. Moore. 🙏

Consigliere’s been vital @Adrian9Johnson6 @HenryGMoore

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@NFLAustralia @NFL @EAMaddenNFL @cmanoussakis pls 🤞 PS5

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@johnloydroberts @ericeager_ The 👑

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@Adrian9Johnson6 @crow_data_sci Yeah it hurt

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@Adrian9Johnson6 @DataSupercoach Yeah sheesh that’s a bit grim, Briggs has been so much value tho it’s okish

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@Adrian9Johnson6 @DanielCherny This one is for you @Adrian9Johnson6

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

While play rate doesn't indicate high end performance it is a reasonable indicator that the draftee is around the best 22. Player's 5th seasons were used to look at performance after their rookie deals. Data was used from the 2007 to 2016 drafts

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

Had a look at the expectations for the players taken in last weeks national draft. An interesting plateau occurs between picks 21 and 40 suggesting a value proposition in the back end of this range. Player retention rates drop heavily after pick 40

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@crow_data_sci Player expected points generated, converted to wins earned above a replacement level player

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

Analysed the WAR production of draft picks over the primes of their careers to create a WAR equivalent to the AFL draft pick points curve.

The best value above the AFL curve begins around pick 20 and is fairly consistent until pick 60. #AFL #draft

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@redrock_bball @copes9 Very keen if a space is available

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@sprint_quick @afl_war Essendon had a distribution that characterised some of the poorer performing sides this season. They had a lot of players that performed at a level well below average and most importantly lacked a cluster of players around the median

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

Intrateam player performance distributions:

Teams are grouped by ladder position to create a picture of successful team structure in 2020. Players are grouped in deciles on performance

Top 4 sides:
highest % of 90-100th percentile players
lowest % of 70-100th
lowest % of 0-30th

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@CapitalCityCody Yeah, what I was trying to say with this post was that while top 4 sides have the most players in the top 10% of the league, they have the lowest percentage of players in the top 30% and the bottom 30%.

The distribution of successful teams is highly concentrated at the mean.

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@CapitalCityCody We defined replacement level as the median PR for players that entered the league via the rookie draft.

They were passed over in the national draft in their 18th year and we consider them as readily available talent.

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@sprint_quick @afl_war Yeah, any team you are after in particular?

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@CapitalCityCody Good question, while AFLPR is correlated to winning, the distribution of points within a side should not be affected.

Winning more games should shift the distribution positively however it should not imply anything about the distribution of team performance.

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

@spironikola @ByMarcMcGowan @afl_war Came in at 0.751 wins above replacement, had a huge year

[Charles Roberts @Chas_R_Roberts]

2020 W.A.R All Australian Team #AFL #allaustralian