Rafal

In search of the Theory of Everything

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@Noahpinion Try to watch films instead. They tend to be much better

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@imgoingtoduck @growing_daniel Zelensky clearly made a mistake. Hanania’s calling for his resignation is insane, though.

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@edenhofer_jacob @itaisher That’s amazing. Thank you again

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@edenhofer_jacob Thanks, all look relevant. I’d probably first look at Aytac and Stokes. I’m less persuaded by the back cover description in the other book (I treat bounded rationality explanations as last resort when everything else fails, and the prediction of a shift to centre seems wrong?)

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@tomasz_sawczuk Jeszcze jest rosnąca w siłę część prorosyjska

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@fetzert Why should the Linke block a reform of the brake?

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@page_eco That was my response too. Why I didnt post it was that it’s sensitive to the assumptions about commitment. If the murderers can precommit, they should draw straws who’ll go first. before the short straw is drawn, everyone has a nonzero prob to survive so they should participate

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@jagodagrondecka Ciekawe ale też trochę zabawne HTS urządza toury dziennikarzy po tej samej fabryce. .T. Aznari wrzucił masę materiałów z tego samego miejsca. Ciekawe czy trzeba się wpisywać na listę społeczną

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@swarajk_ @dandolfa Yes sure. But cutting interest rate and by a lot is counterintuitive from a government that we know treats inflation as its enemy number one. And it seemingly goes against the economic orthodoxy. But there were good reasons for it and it worked

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@dandolfa @swarajk_ I think it has been positively tested in Argentina. Milei’s government set the policy rate well below inflation to cut money printing needed to finance on its papers and stop the snowball rolling. As we know, it worked

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@berlin_bridge Reminds me of the E Fromm’s description of the Germans as sado-masochistic. Pummelling the weaker, bending to the stronger, perfectly happy with their place in this ‘natural’ hierarchy

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@ichbinilya Could you explain the political economy of this? Why keep pretences? Why not just round up random guys? What will they do? Go to the court?

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@_alice_evans But Poland, at the far right of your chart, has one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe. The marriage data certainly doesn’t explain the cross section variance

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@MSnegovaya @ALanoszka @EJIntSec I just don’t believe that the elites are not constrained by the society. In fact I think that what ‘elites’ are exactly reflects the society at large

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@KamilCaus Są jakieś exit polls?

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@JoHenrich In your conceptual framework of innovation diffusion, does distance matter? Put differently, is it about the population size, density, or a combination of both?

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@polidemitolog @shabashewitz Damir is obviously right. There’s no universe in which 75000 people can create a state that is meaningfully autonomous. There were 17 mln people in Kazakhstan in 1989. And they were lucky to have large oil and gas reserves

[Rafal @Cmplcation]

@pmichaillat Thanks for the heads up on the paper. I’ve not followed the literature for a long while but I always thought that people moved to looking mainly at wage effects bc the expected unemployment effects didn’t seem to be there. Has the consensus moved?