@macrocephalopod Do you draw a line between gaming and strategy/board/card games? This podcast talks about the Magic The Gathering -> prop trading pipeline, you might find it compelling
https://t.co/edYcK9i1MQ
If you hold a levered portfolio of ~7 stocks for a long time, chances are that you will look like a genius or like an idiot, whichever comes first. Kelly, Information Coefficient, etc. are not useless concepts.
Many such cases these days.
Filtering markets by top of book liquidity is a good proxy for a level of institutional capital in a market. Was listening to a podcast with an ex-SIG prediction market trader who claimed they don’t touch mention markets which is corroborated by resting order $
With that said they probably don’t touch because of incredible adverse selection/insider flow there
@bobaissoup and I launched a project today called https://t.co/w4aPkvAisc
find the lowest price on any diamond across 20+ retailers. We’re the only site where this is possible!
you can also search by certificate number (never been possible before) and style.
@__paleologo I know some folks at short-onlys that don’t even bother to buy SPX against their book. They are so far from thinking about idiosyncratic portfolio construction
@DeepDishEnjoyer@AviFelman@gametheorizing@1000xPod I find the line to be hazy. Say you replace “risk” with “flows” - that’s more an alpha than pure risk premia but what if it’s flows caused by de-risking vs. some other mechanical effect?
@0xFaust12@paulpgustafson One pushback on this is that imagine stocks are volatile to the point that stock/sector weights of the index change meaningfully day to day. I would still consider a cap-weighted index of these stocks a risk factor (i.e. the market factor) despite high turnover