Pleased to announce that Eitan Sapiro-Gheiler and I have created the Comprehensive Courts of Appeals Database, which extends the Songer Database to the universe of published Courts of Appeals cases between 1892 and 2025.
https://t.co/DpoQGIOxDA
🚨New NBER working paper alert 🚨
🤔2021–2024 was the worst U.S. inflation in four decades. The question: Did voters react to the rising prices, or to the shrinking paychecks?
😱We approached this paper with one major surprise: there is no official measure of inflation at the county level in the U.S.
🌟To study the relationship between inflation and electoral outcomes during, we first had to construct local inflation measures using county-level data on family budget costs and incomes.
The answer? -> Check it out! 👇
🔗 https://t.co/itZi8KOZfS
The five largest US tech firms are nearly doubling capex—from $380B in 2025 to $755B in 2026. They face bankruptcy unless productivity booms commensurately, from Jessica Wachter and Jonathan Wachter https://t.co/eqWk5HB9r0
The CEPR Advanced Forum in Financial Economics (CAFFE) 2025/2026 sessions come to a close on 9 June @ 14:00 CEST.
@StephenEKHansen presents "Macro Shocks and Firm-Level Response Heterogeneity"
https://t.co/iiABhqxXO5
Studying whether readers are willing to pay for local journalism by using quasi-random paywall hits at a major US metro newspaper, finding the answer is yes—but subscriptions alone won't pay for it, from @gregmartinphd, @shoshievass, and @cpfiffer https://t.co/WCRLwIeiQP
One person who was completely vindicated in time was Shiller with his AEA address on narrative economics.
I was there at the time, and thought: cool idea, but no way you can operationalize this.
LLMs have made it much easier to study narratives
https://t.co/FAH3HxpUi5
US AI giants are issuing debt all over the world. Google/Alphabet is leading the charge, according to Bloomberg. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below.
It was a great pleasure to participate in the "Deep Learning and Causal AI for Estimation" course sponsored by @FundacionAreces and @iesebschool. Course materials (slides + code) available on the Github repo below.
https://t.co/JxVhtIRTf4
Daron is still against AI in Science even though one of the best mathematicians Terence Tao says AI makes thought experiments and bold attempts less costly, which definitely lead to more general knowledge.
How much does the world work? Excited to see our research with Emmanuel Saez on global working hours featured in the IMF F&D Magazine:
https://t.co/19fHjpiJOB
The labor market has been steadily tightening, albeit just a notch--and maybe in absolute terms it is still loose.
Unemployment rate stable/edging down while job openings stable/edging up.
Ratio of V/U has risen from a low of 0.87 in December to 1.03 in April.
Building new data on startups in Africa to study which types of financing these firms demand, how financing is allocated in practice, and the implications for startup creation and the composition of the sector, from Emanuele Colonnelli, Marcio Cruz, @mariana_ppl11, @PorzioTommaso, and Chun Zhao https://t.co/5ltmAMn4N6