Colt Jones

Husband | Dad 👨| Investor | Bitcoin | Endurance Sports 🚴

[The Tech Investor @TheTechInvest]

🚨BREAKING🚨

LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER, THE WARREN BUFFETT OF AI STOCKS, HAS BECOME $IREN SECOND LARGEST SHAREHOLDER AFTER INCREASING HIS STAKE BY 34%

New adds:
$CLSK +648%🟢
$RIOT +87%🟢

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

🚨 Important Point: Bitcoin

Let me remind you again, like I said two months ago.

Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER while the PMI was below 50 the whole time.

It's wild that people honestly think Bitcoin will correct 50% from here...

It's not 2015, people. We're talking about a completely different asset.

Bitcoin also doesn't follow the 4-year cycle. It never has. It has always followed the business cycle, and once again it is.

Like clockwork.

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which Dec 2018 and Jun 2022 were examples of).

Both sell-offs in Nov and Feb are in the hall of fame of Realised Loss onchain. Not the biggest in relative terms, but by far the largest in USD terms, over $7.5 Billion over just those two days.

We're in the bottom 20% of the most conservative, and bottom 5% of the most aggressive deviations from any sane anchor model.

Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken...

...Or you should be ignoring the bears, staying very humble, and quietly DCA stacking sats from here on.

Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains. It will claim many who don't want to see the rest of the movie.

We often experience retests of the lows, leaky price charts, powerful rallies...and then lower lows...often with a final capitulation event to book-end the time-pain chapter of the bear.

In my view, even though this sounds horrific, it is unlikely we have anywhere near the aggressive rate of decline, nor depth of decline as has already occurred in Nov'25 and Feb'25. The hard part of the drawdown is most likely behind us.

The difference between $17.6k in June 2022, and $15.6k in Dec 2022...was six months (the price delta is frankly irrelevant for any long-term investor).

There is no rush, but these Bitcoin prices are temporary. How temporary we do not know, but it's tremendously oversold, and there are few statistics I am aware of that suggest otherwise.

The bears will spend the next few months liquidating their trading accounts trying to short the bottom of a painful chopsolidation range. The bulls will do the same by getting too hopeful at the range highs.

Investing is a game of picking great assets, accumulating at low prices, and then being patient as fuck.

The 200-week MA is at $58.5k, a mere bees dick below the $60k low we already set. There are still folks out there who want to haggle over the missing 3%.

The Realised Price is at $55k, which from first principles, should stop being visited over time, as it deviates due to unrealised profit in lost coins (a topic for another day). We've already cleared every excess leverage level down to $60k, no stop losses survived February's move.

This is the time to stay humble, and stack sats.

If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don't fantasise over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day.

Buy the whole bottom. Dollar cost average for the next six months, and remove your emotions from the problem at hand.

A final note; ignore the bears. They will perpetually revise their targets lower and lower, and get plenty of clicks for doing so. Humans love bear-porn because we're wired to avoid risk.

This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for Bitcoin.

Ignore the bears, they lack ambition.

[Mike Alfred @mikealfred]

I had no desire to be rich so I could buy a Rolex or a Lamborghini.

I wanted to be rich so I could control my time and go for a long run at 10am on a Tuesday or take the afternoon off to hang out with my daughter.

Focus on what matters, not materialist bullshit. Life is short.

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

@TheRealPlanC "never sold" option?

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

I asked Grok about @mikealfred's commentary during the 2017 & 2021 cycles. I think I will keep my Mike notifications turned on!

Thanks, @mikealfred!

"Mike Alfred’s real-time commentary during those periods

Late 2017–2018
Mike was already posting on Twitter (though less frequently than today). He repeatedly called the top in real time in December 2017, told people to sell strength in early 2018, and stayed extremely bearish throughout 2018, constantly reminding followers “this is just like 2014, but worse.”

2021–2022
Mike turned aggressively bullish again in late 2020/early 2021, rode the entire move up, then flipped extremely bearish in November 2021 — literally the week of the all-time high. From November 2021 through all of 2022 he posted hundreds of times comparing the price action to 2018, saying “this drawdown will be 80%+ just like last cycle” and “most people will sell at the bottom again.” He stayed net-short or in cash for almost the entire bear market and only flipped long again in January 2023. In short, the 2021 cycle was slightly milder (-77% vs -84%) and a few months longer, but followed an almost identical emotional script to 2017–2018 — which is exactly why Mike kept saying throughout 2022, “I’ve seen this movie before.”

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

@AKWilk @TheCinesthetic

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

@mithcoons @grok what do you think? What are odds the 4 year cycle repeats and we are now in a downtrend?

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

@mikealfred How about a run too?

[Mike Alfred @mikealfred]

If ASST hits $2 tomorrow, I’m opening a bottle of Screaming Eagle tomorrow evening and will invite one random follower who likes and reposts this to join me for a complimentary steak dinner.

[Mike Alfred @mikealfred]

Absolutely nothing fundamentally changed with Bitcoin on the move from $110,000 to $98,900 and then back up. The only thing that happened is that a bunch of Bitcoin influencers on X revealed themselves to be completely unserious people.

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

@cantonmeow for now...

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

@mikealfred Most people don’t know how to skate to where the puck is going to be. The focus on where it has been.

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

When you are part of the yuppie elite there is no reason to be curious either. You have a recipe that is approved and no reason to deviate. Great read, thanks @Croesus_BTC

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

@Z06Z07 @krogoff @tadtweets I wrote this piece 5 years ago about why my Stanford MBA friends dismiss Bitcoin.

It resonated with a lot of people then, and remains evergreen now.
https://t.co/9pQNKB5c1I

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

@BITVOLT My guess is that government is a welfare program 🤷

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

Fall pump ahead

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

@theBTCMiningGuy @mikealfred I see your $69 target and raise to $420.

[Fiat Archive @fiatarchive]

FORMER FINANCE PROFESSOR TAD SMITH: "After 25 years teaching finance, I realized at 58:

If the money printer grows 8-10% annually and the S&P 500 returns ~9%, it’s just treading water. True wealth comes from outpacing the printer.

That’s the Bitcoin journey."

[Joe Consorti @JoeConsorti]

Bitcoin Is Rangebound Heading Into Q4 As Monetary Easing Commences

Cliff Notes:
• Bitcoin has been rangebound for more than ten weeks as long-term holders distribute into strength while institutions accumulate.
• Seasonality is turning in bitcoin’s favor, with October and November historically its two best months.
• The Fed’s easing cycle and loosening credit conditions tilt the macro backdrop bullish heading into Q4.

Bitcoin has been rangebound for over two months, almost completely uninterrupted. This has proven to be a strong area of overhead resistance, lining up with last year's extended consolidation period throughout the summer and into early fall. Many have jumped to the conclusion that this consolidation period is the result of paper bitcoin, which is the umbrella term used by skeptics to explain how large inflows from ETF buyers and treasury companies haven't been accompanied by a commensurate increase in the price.

Taking a look under the hood, the most plausible explanation is actually quite simple, and one that we've seen before: supply from long-term holders and demand from institutions offset each other, with neither side strong enough to push the price materially beyond the range. This has created a deadlock where the price chops around due to a lack of volume from either side.

This is a hallmark of prior BTC cycles. Long-term holders, defined as those who’ve held for 155+ days, began distributing the moment bitcoin broke above $110,000, as you can see on the right side of this chart in orange:

That cohort, which had been steadily accumulating during the run-up from ~$75k to $110k, flipped to net sellers once the $110,000 milestone was breached. Note that the distribution from these holders has decelerated rapidly in recent weeks, suggesting we're nearing a point of seller exhaustion for this cohort at this price level.

Long-term holders (LTHs) tend to sell into strength and accumulate as the market draws down. That pattern has occurred three times over the last 21 months: LTHs sold as BTC rose from $45k to $70k, again on the way to $100k, and once more now that we've crested $124k. This rollercoaster-esque pattern can be seen in orange on the chart above.

In the same vein, coins dormant for more than two years, seen on the chart in blue, have been selling since early 2024. Those coins are composed of both OGs and prior/early-cycle entrants. The pace of that selling has been significant, yet it isn’t out of character. Coins rotate out of the hands of those who are likely very deep in profit to new market entrants, establishing an increasingly higher marketwide cost basis for BTC to spring from. What appears boring is actually significant for bitcoin's stability when the next leg of the bull market commences:

On the other side of the equation, we have institutions: both the ETFs buying for their clients and BTC treasury companies, which have been buying aggressively at the same time that supply is being distributed by long-term holders. This chart comes from Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments. Now you can clearly see the battle taking place. Institutions, the Treasury companies and ETF issuers, are buying in, while long-term holders are bailing out. The market has found equilibrium in this band because one cohort is offloading while another is absorbing:

This tug-of-war is why bitcoin is stuck, but it won’t last forever. Already, we’re seeing signs that long-term holder distribution is cooling. Net outflows from LTH supply have slowed, which means fewer coins are being sold into the market. Institutions, by contrast, have shown no sign of letting up. ETFs are evergreen buyers, particularly as rates come down and people venture out on the risk curve. Treasuries are opportunistic, constantly shorting the dollar through various instruments to purchase bitcoin at an accelerating pace, making for an increasingly structural source of demand. The scales are tipping in favor of net accumulation.

Seasonality is the other piece of the puzzle. September is historically bitcoin’s weakest month, and we're coming off of a dreadful August where BTC fell 7.4%. October and November are its two strongest, with average returns of +22.9% and +35.7%. These months have consistently acted as accelerants, propelling bitcoin higher as cyclical supply dynamics intersect with favorable macro conditions. This has been particularly acute over the last two years. With September nearly behind us, the seasonal tailwind will be at bitcoin's back:

The macro backdrop is favorable, too. The Fed has begun cutting its policy rates again, with its first 25-bps cut last week marking the official turn from restraint to easing. As credit conditions loosen, so long as the economy remains intact, investors will venture out on the risk curve. Last cycle, bitcoin was one of the highest-beta beneficiaries of monetary easing. Last year, as the Fed began its first set of maintenance cuts through the end of Q3 into Q4, bitcoin once again performed well. The same dynamic is likely to play out again, especially if growth remains resilient.

All of this points in one direction: the deadlock will likely draw to a close soon. Bitcoin isn’t stuck so much as it is digesting supply at a key psychological milestone. Entities that've held BTC for an extended period are taking profits, as they always do. Institutions are buying on the other side of that equation. Once distribution is over and demand keeps pressing higher, the balance will break.

The question isn’t whether bitcoin can escape the range but rather how much energy has been stored up during this ten-week consolidation. In past instances of bitcoin being rangebound during a bull market, the longer the consolidation, the more violent the eventual breakout. With long-term holder distribution abating, persistent institutional demand, bullish seasonality, and a friendly Fed all aligned, the odds favor another explosive leg higher in Q4.

Take it easy,
Joe Consorti
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Horizon helps homeowners stack Bitcoin using their home equity, without debt, interest charges, monthly payments, or term limits. To see your home's bitcoin potential, visit https://t.co/a9maJ1ZXwN
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Disclaimer: The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Investing in Bitcoin and other digital assets involves significant risk due to their high volatility and potential for substantial losses. Readers should perform their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Nothing in this blog constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or investment products. Horizon does not offer financial products directly nor receive referral incentives.

[Colt Jones @colt_88a]

I started stacking BTC in 2022—miners felt too risky.

Listening to @mikealfred gave me the framework to understand them better. After doing my own research, I sized a miner position within my risk tolerance.

Now miners (+197%) have outperformed BTC (+72%).
Next step: figuring out where to go from here. Thanks, Mike. Your insight and honest thoughts are appreciated. It is up to individuals to do something (or nothing) with them. We are all adults making our own decisions. 🚀