Opus 4.8 was distilled from Qwen. This is 100% real, I didn't even have to mess with the settings, got it after 3 requests.
I guess every accusation really is a confession.
Tricking the US Government to protect frontier labs’ business model by using a China boogeyman is a mistake.
It is protecting the equity of 5,000 people who are investors in OAI and Ant at the sale of everyone else. This would be a terribly stupid decision.
Let the market sort this out!
The events of the past few weeks may simply mean that the frontier labs’ business model is not good and that their revenues aren’t sustainable.
That’s ok. It’s ok to have a business model that worked for some time then all of a sudden didn’t (remember Groupon)!
This still leaves a lot of value for a lot of other American companies:
- CPUs
- GPUs
- hyperscalers
- neoclouds
- rack manufacturers
- electricity and power
- skilled trades
- application layer AI
None of this value goes away. In fact, if the model layers’ costs decrease by 10-100x, competition would accelerate and I would argue that the value to everyone else will go up more than what is lost.
Let the free market sort this out vs allowing two companies whose stock is owned by less than 5,000 people decide this for America.
At this point, we can safely conclude that Chinese labs have fully caught up. We used to think it will take years for them to catch up, then 6 months, then now, kimi just beats fable across many dimensions. China-US AI battle has entered its most exciting times.
Why do you think Chinese labs only got there by distilling alone and lack all other methods? Did you know the top researchers in Chinese labs went to the same top university with similar GPAs as the top researchers in OpenAI/anthropic, which are mostly Chinese as well?
The researchers getting rich off Anthropic secondaries are cheering for the thing that would make them ordinary employees again.
Right now they are paid like NBA free agents because they are the labs’ most visible moat. The frontier labs are struggling to hold a durable, ownable edge: models get copied, undercut, or matched by cheaper and open rivals within months. So the real advantage lives in a few hundred people who know how to push the frontier, and who can also leave, raise billion-dollar, double tranched seed rounds, and compete directly.
That is why the labs are paying them not to leave. with secondaries as retention payments, mission / fear, etc...
Pharma shows where this can end up. In a drug company, the value does not belong to the scientist. The scientist can be paid well, but not hundreds of millions over three or four years, because the durable value sits in the patent and the FDA approval. The researcher who discovered the molecule can quit tomorrow, but the company still owns the asset.
A regulatory moat would do something similar for AI labs. It would move value from the person to the institution.
Regulation is a wall against three threats at once: competitors, open source, and the labs’ own researchers. The researchers getting rich off secondaries today are, by cheering the regulated future, voting to end the exact leverage that made them rich.
We are still massively short compute. $META and xAI are selling compute because there is no inference demand for their models. It's a compute allocation problem (too much compute in the hands of players with no internal use for it) not a compute surplus problem.
LeBron James, 41, announced he’s leaving the Lakers one day after his son Bronny’s $2.3M contract became fully guaranteed.
After an eight-year tenure with the Lakers, it remains to be seen what he’ll do next. A return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, his hometown team, which he led to a historic 2016 title, would be a poetic final chapter — and could give Cleveland the missing piece it needs to get over the hump.
https://t.co/tN5tzBDdq5
LeBron James, 41, announced he’s leaving the Lakers one day after his son Bronny’s $2.3M contract became fully guaranteed.
After an eight-year tenure with the Lakers, it remains to be seen what he’ll do next. A return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, his hometown team, which he led to a historic 2016 title, would be a poetic final chapter — and could give Cleveland the missing piece it needs to get over the hump.
https://t.co/tN5tzBDdq5