Overall, I estimate that the SCOTUS decision caused the average same-sex-attracted American to be
- 36% more likely to live in a "citizen & non-citizen" romantic partnership
- 72% more likely to marry someone with a different US citizenship status
@BasilHalperin Apps also create the appearance of more options (mostly real). So people can be pickier, like putting height filters. But strategic users will optimize over the (unobservable on the app) things they care about most, which requires costly dating.
@BasilHalperin Congestion exists. Large vs small cities demonstrate that; people are less willing to commit because it’s reasonable to expect a better match after continually searching.
@StatisticUrban@SashaGusevPosts There is room for incremental change with take-up & complementarities! If daycare spot are limited, leave isn’t helpful. If my peers don’t take leave, then I can’t either. Responses take time too: fertility takes planning. Lots of room for policy experimentation & more research.
I've always found fertility discourse to be a bit strange because most parents I talk to say "we'd probably have had more kids if we could just get stable help during the first few years" and yet on here people speculate about potential causes like fragments of a lost language.
@YIMBYLAND Seems like this is happening in cities people move to from CA. But if CA becomes a bit cheaper, people will start moving back. YIMBY blind spots: i) supply can induce demand, ii) some level of supply increase can raise prices, iii) things can worsen before an affordable outcome.
@YIMBYLAND Building housing in desirable places like NYC and California could actually increase prices if it induces demand: more people move there, more people want to be there, more jobs, more amenities.
Forget flowers, chocolates, jewelry, and kisses. Tomorrow I'll post an update on Poisson versus NegBin, cross section and panel data versions -- with simulation evidence.
Not expecting any love in return.
@john_voorheis Oh, point taken about CPI. I guess the average housing costs experienced (ignoring opp cost) by owners is a time-of-entry-weighted moving average of mortgage payments
@john_voorheis Shifting interest rate risk from households to banks creates deadweight loss? Can you explain where that comes from?
If I signed a lease for 30 years, I don’t think that would count as rent control, unless a 1 year lease also counts as rent control.
Where is same-sex marriage legal?
This also very closely tracks countries that have made rapid progress towards gender equality.
As far as I am aware, no one has yet explained this striking coincidence.
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