The Contrarian Economist

Uncovering economic truths no one else is telling

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

To read more: https://t.co/rxfzjKxtML

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

We used AI as a research assistant and created a study on the opportunity cost of excess savings; it shows that wealth is forgone when that surplus sits in low-yield deposits rather than a conservative portfolio

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

#5: There is a clear product gap. Priority segments include the urban middle class aged 25–35, with gaps in digital wealth management, hybrid pension-investment plans and financial education.

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

My take on https://t.co/1GHFKTFJzU

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

Consensus expects AI infra suppliers and hyperscalers to generate STRONG operating cash-flow growth before broad evidence exists that end customers are making commensurate economic returns from AI. This is not an accounting inconsistency, but it creates a duration and ROIC risk

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

The infrastructure build can continue while end-user monetization catches up, but eventually the capital deployed must generate sufficient incremental revenue or productivity to justify continued investment.

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

Unemployment: A National Misunderstanding https://t.co/1x7HtHxDl3

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

@ruima Seems like a great rally except LLM does not 'think' — it uses pattern recognition to predict the most likely next word in a sentence.

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

We studied the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and found a slow-burn domestic debt trap https://t.co/AZ8VHDgFDP

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

The power of compounding:
Investing 100k today for 20 years,
-at 10% return per year, your initial investment will become 672,750 by Yr 20 before adjusting for inflation
-at 20% return per year, it's a whopping 3,833,760

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

NASDAQ index history: An investment at the March 2000 peak (~5,048) did not break even in terms of purchasing power until January 17, 2018. It took roughly 18 years for the index to finally close above its dot-com era peak on an inflation-adjusted basis.

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

Big Tech has a $1.67T off-balance-sheet "shadow debt" problem and Oracle CDS is flashing 18-yr warning signs.
The hidden line connecting AI data centers to global credit stress on the latest The Contrarian Economist: https://t.co/CfhcEPsiOJ

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

Follow the trail from a shipping chokepoint in the Persian Gulf to the fertiliser in the ground to the price on your grocery receipt - and explain why the market is quietly mispricing all of it.

https://t.co/7S3A43z0Os

[The Contrarian Economist @contrarianecon]

Introduce the Contrarian Economist podcast to uncover interesting economic truths hidden in plain sight:

https://t.co/SKTIZVIsbf