Cooking by the Numbers

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@BobKnakal Open to sales associates not attending? Asking for a friend! Haha

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Good introductory stuff.

The one major caveat with a DCF analysis is that your entire underwriting is fixated on a predetermined discount rate throughout the length of the underwriting period.

Very linear projections, meanwhile you’re manipulating revenues and expenses leading to post garnishing estimations.

And that ultimately results in estimation errors.

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@ShlomoChopp @bridgelenderguy Pretty certain he’s trying to recover 100% of his basis + some.

He tried to do the same with the GVA portfolio in the Carolinas - all class B/C assets…

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@Peter_Psathas @patcarino What are looking for in RS products in NYC?

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@resetbasis

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@resetbasis Did you take down your original substack? Your content was gold…

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@resetbasis @IdiotWind1717 Are these posts still available? Would love to check them out..

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@HayekAndKeynes @ChartCrime Do you have a link to source?

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@CaseyMericle Are any pro forma’s accurate?

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@depinwhale @TripleNetInvest Not sure I agree

Again, the comps make absolutely no sense. Not a single RS unit pushing for more than $120k/door. Are DHCR’s in order? How much is actually being collected? The deferred maint here is likely a headache…

Banking on rates declining is a risky thesis for upside

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@TripleNetInvest So much can go wrong here

Assuming 100% rent regulated, how much rent is actually being collected, whether DHCR’s are in order, and the amount of deferred maintenance here. $400k per unit is > 4x today’s comps.

And with Good Cause in place, hard to see any upside

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@depinwhale @TripleNetInvest An all time low? Without full information, it’s tough to tell but assuming 100% RS, $400k/unit is not an all time low… RS comps easily going for sub $120k/unit.

Everyone keeps banking on some sort of reformation but NYC has only gotten incrementally worst annually.

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@earley_benjamin @patcarino I’m guessing that was a Ponzi scheme too 😂

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@earley_benjamin @patcarino You probably never heard of tiger global or tiger management…

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@LotusDisrespect @resetbasis GVA blew up. Mismanaged their portfolio completely, took on loans at peak valuations, no distributions, shady management.

https://t.co/MmxF5pQ3TE

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@LotusDisrespect @resetbasis Just witnessed this with Benefit Street after repossessing GVA’s assets. Lent at the peak of 21’.

Got them a serious offer for the GVA portfolio at a 12% haircut and they noted they’ll manage themselves...

Only issue is they are well capitalized…

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@J_Bagel_B @ClarenceWongCRE @jasonmiller15 I know it’s dependent per project, but assuming fire codes, etc - how much of this will likely take up the existing space?

I’m going to assume approx ~10% +/- of the 15k sqft.

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@rhunterh The problem is you can’t study, let alone, isolate MMT without also understanding the overall policy of the state. It’s a system that coalesces with government affairs, especially when referring to a particular ideology.

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@aryal1994 DONE!

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@NEFLIndustrial You misunderstood clearly but ok. Best of luck, bud.