I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long…
Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right).
They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for.
While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA.
Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America).
While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia.
Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC…
While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028.
As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times.
And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector).
Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early.
I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.
@TradexWhisperer I sold nbis so I could buy a new car and was going to buy it back but because it went up a lot i kept not wanting to buy until it had a correction
$MU 8.3x $SNDK 8.7x
The entire AI trade runs on memory, and memory trades at 8x.
Nomura says $1.4 trillion TAM by 2030 but the market is pricing it like a dying industry.
The Bargain of the Century is staring at you.
If you re-rate $MU and $SNDK to 16x forward PE
$MU is $1,600
$SNDK is $2,500
And that is still an embarrassment of a multiple for what these companies are becoming. AI Cognitive Capacity Infrastructure.
The semiconductor sector average is 34x.
16x is less than half. $DRAM
@TradexWhisperer Do you not think it'll crash when sk hynix and Samsung factories are in operation, creating more supply, thus lowering the price of memory and stopping the memory shortage