果實特🎒nuts.hl

Crypto Enjoyor Since ‘18
加密一級玩家

[Backpack中文 @Backpack_CN]

最终答案出炉，价差只有0.053%,远远小于1%🖤

左图是美股周一pre-market的第一分钟价格

右图是Backpack在solana上的 $spcx 同一时间价格

$170.61 : $170.52

历史上第一次，crypto用户提前于传统金融进行价格发现，在华尔街休息的时候完成套利

真实股票，24/7交易，0手续费

[Ren @renstocks_]

Most people think the AI buildout is just a couple of stocks – Memory, CPU, GPU, NeoClouds, Photonics..

$SNDK, $MU, $ARM $INTC, $AMD, $NBIS, $LITE, $AAOI, $TSEM, $SIVE

The reality is there’s so much more to it.. I built a complete map of the AI buildout – at least the one I’ve been trading around for the last year.. I put that map on my Substack… 12 layers deep.

Since I’ve seen it circulating on here, I’ll just post it myself.

The hard part isn’t knowing the full stack – it’s making sense of it.

Why is photonics down today but memory isn’t? Why is CPO so relevant in the AI buildout?

Bullish AF on AI infrastructure.

Go check out the full article for free on my Substack, and if you’re going to share it – please do, but link back to my article.

Here is the link: https://t.co/AqKTdxnlmJ

Let’s go find the next 1000% stock ⚡️⚡️

[Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_]

CNBC REPORTED THAT WALMART WILL NOW ACCEPT BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, AND OTHER CRYPTO PAYMENTS IN-STORE FOR ITS 1 BILLION MONTHLY CUSTOMERS.

THIS IS ACTUAL ADOPTION.

[Luca的AI思考 @aas354583338405]

这波美股回调前，AI 提醒我减仓，少亏了 3 万美金

很多时候，赚钱不是因为你知道了什么秘密，
而是你比别人更少漏掉关键信息，更早看到风险变化

这波美股下跌前，我的 AI 提前给我敲了警钟
它没有预测到了市场下跌，也不是替我自动交易
它只是帮我做了一件很简单但很有用的事：
把我可能会忽略的风险提示，及时推送到我面前

这次美股下跌前两天
Hermes 就把相关风险提醒的信息推给了我（参考图一）
也就是总结了我常看的几个关键博主和社群，
在提醒短期风险，以及原因是什么

这些信号单独看，可能只是一个观点
但当它们同时出现，就值得重视
所以我当天就把杠杆仓位清掉了
现货仓位也降到了只有 20%的NOK和MRVL
后面市场真回调了

按我原来的仓位算，这次AI及时提醒帮我
多保住了大概 3 万美金

我也在几个群里提醒了朋友们短期风险
不是跌完以后才马后炮（参考图2）

还有一次是黄仁勋喊单 MRVL 那天
AI 也及时把这个消息推送给了我
我刚睡醒看到以后，就在 Hyperliquid 上开了仓位
当天直接拉了 50%
吃到了 35%

这件事让我更确定一件事：
AI 最容易帮普通人赚钱的地方，不一定是直接交易
而是优化信息源
我其实一直在用 Hermes 处理市场信息源

只不过之前更多是在看加密市场
最近加密行情不太好，我才开始把美股 AI 这条线上接上
我让它每天会从几个层面帮我
监控信息 分析市场并写研报推送给我

1.宏观和资金面
比如 BTC、ETH、DXY、合约 OI、链上资金流

2.重要新闻
比如监管、机构资金、AI 科技、半导体供应链、美股 AI 链情绪

3.高信号信息源
比如我长期关注的博主、社群讨论、关键推文和市场观点

4.GitHub / AI Builders
用来判断 AI 行业真实开发者注意力正在往哪里流

5.Crypto 链上叙事
比如金狗/银狗、CA 证据、社区传播质量和叙事承载力

它不是把一堆信息原封不动丢给我
而是帮我过滤、归类、提炼重点
如果多个信息源都在提示同一个风险
它会把这个信号放到日报里

很多人都在说用 AI 交易
我也看过不少 AI Trading 的案例
总结下来，我觉得 AI 直接替你做交易非常难

但帮你优化信息源，其实很容易
现在信息源真的太多了
X、微信群、Telegram、研报、新闻、链上数据
每个地方都可能有重要信息
人不可能一直盯着所有渠道
尤其是微信群，消息太多，刷得太快
很多关键内容非常容易被忽略
你也没有足够精力一个个回头翻
这就是 Agent 真正有价值的地方
你不用它帮你拍板做投资决策
而是让它帮你过滤噪音、提炼重点，把分散的信息源连接起来

所以我现在越来越觉得：
普通人用 AI 优化投资交易的第一步，不是自动交易
而是先让 AI 帮你建立一个更强的信息系统
让它帮你看更多关键信息
更少漏掉风险变化
这才是 AI 在投资里最容易落地的用法

后面我会分享我具体是怎么用AI抓取的这些信息源
欢迎大家关注

[解构师 Beyond @0xBeyondLee]

老美有资格铁锤爆交易所金币的，有以下几个部门 ⬇️

- 司法部 DOJ
- 金融犯罪执法网络 FinCEN
- 证券交易委员会 SEC
- 商品期货交易委员会 CFTC

山东学交易所 Backpack 显然是深入贯彻落实了这一点，一个劲从以上部门挖人

- 前 CFTC 代理主席 Mark Wetjen 被挖走担任 Backpack 美国区总裁
- 前 SEC 代理主席 Michael Piwowar 加入 Backpack US 董事会
- 此外 Backpack 还成为 DTCC 工作组成员

当有资格定义合规的人，下场佯装成需要被定义的人，不合规就成为了不可能

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

For people out there citing Bank of America quotes now about selling.

Just remember:

They said $EWY/ KOSPI (SK Hynix/Samsung) was an extreme bubble back in March.

And blamed retail for the cause, then implied they should sell Korean memory equities: comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis, .com bubble, and Silver crash.

Then shortly after retail sold their longs, memory rallied to all time highs.

Institutions are not your friends.

Usually when an unusual flood of negative news, they need liquidity.

[貝格先生🐢 @market_beggar]

從 Liquidity 的角度淺談「最後一哆嗦」的理想框架🗺

BTC 自五月初進入「劇本 2」的射程範圍後，
耗費了恰好一個月的時間跌破 60K，
將過去三個月在上漲過程中積累的 Liquidity 全部清掃完畢，
市場正式步入新階段：最後一哆嗦的築底整理期。

以下，我將和各位詳細聊聊 Liq 角度的理想底部結構👇：

//

猶記 6 月初，我發布了一篇 Liq 技術分析帖：
📖 「Liquidity 清掃進程 50%」：靜待最後一哆嗦
https://t.co/ZmLuqNCA3j

當時的其中一段原文如下：
＂下方目前仍存有大量待清掃的 Liq，包含 70.5K 的 Equal Lows，
以及下方 60~65K 滿滿的 Trendline Liquidity。＂

結果在短短一週的時間內，Liq 就全部被清掃完畢，
我反覆強調的「Liquidity 引力效應」再次得到印證。

有人問：
「現在 Liq 被清完了，接下來呢？」

從 Liquidity 交易的角度來看，結合 BTC 一如既往的市場慣性，
我認為如果接下來市場能夠出現以下階段，
就能說明我們距離最終底部愈來愈近：
1️⃣ 超跌反彈（正在進行中，每次暴漲暴跌後必然出現的階段）
2️⃣ 二次下探（最好是能出現 Lower Low，以防留下 Trendline Liq）
3️⃣ Stop Hunt：下探深熊估值抄底區後迅速拉回，完成流動性獵取
4️⃣ 築底完成，趨勢反轉

針對上述的概念，如果你是新朋友，或許會感到疑惑、不解，
不過這些概念我先前都有寫過詳細的概念教程，
有興趣深入研究其中邏輯的朋友，可以參考以下鏈接🔗：

📖 Stop Hunt 概念詳細教學
https://t.co/tofAyc3z4o
📖 識別 Liquidity：淺談何謂「Trendline Liquidity」
https://t.co/yGUzhtxJNO
📖 全程貼文為証：我如何透過 liquidity 完美預測 ETH 的兩波暴漲
https://t.co/h1Sf0voH68

//

當然，從週期交易的角度來看，
價格能否摸到「深熊估值模型抄底區域」才是更重要的；
技術分析的定位，更像是在輔助我們評估、細化最終的進場位置。

但，老話一句，如果 BTC 未來能來到：
🔺 Cointime Price
🔺 Realized Price
🔺 LTH Realized Price（LTH-RP）
以上三者中的任何一個，都已是絕佳的週期性抄底時刻。

📖 黃金坑追蹤系列（十七）：「四大深熊抄底模型」最新數據
https://t.co/OVucnsEGtC

並且，誠如昨日的帖子所分享（https://t.co/l64YlNanRF），
目前「PSIP < 50%」的週期性抄底訊號也已觸發，
對於想開始布局、建倉大級別現貨部位的朋友，
強力建議可先閱讀昨日分析帖的內容。

最後，依然要再次提醒各位：
一段趨勢性行情出現後（暴跌 or 暴漲），
通常都需要經歷約 1~3 個月的盤整修復期，
而目前的市場階段之所以非常關鍵，其原因在於：
「如果接下來開始震盪，很可能就會在震盪的過程中，
一腳踩入那些深熊估值模型的抄底區，完成真正的最後一哆嗦‼️」。

保持耐心，終點站不遠了。

以上就是今天的內容，希望對各位有幫助🫡

//

📚 相關閱讀資源

黃金坑抄底系列（下方引文）功成身退，最後一哆嗦正式來臨
https://t.co/7sm7gVjV7l

「美方資金的屠城」：本次暴跌的階段性覆盤
https://t.co/AUSA31JFMu

「BTC 熊市進度評估」：1y~3y 籌碼占比最新數據更新
https://t.co/kMj4hI9FNK

[Fiona ❤️& ✌️ @nft_hu]

台积电的三层蛋糕论

[Bilawal Sidhu @bilawalsidhu]

holy crap! apple just beat google to the punch -- 3d gaussian splatting is coming to apple maps.

these 3d scenes are made from oblique aerial imagery. but unlike blobby photogrammetry -- no more broccoli trees, no more melted powerlines -- ground level detail that actually holds up.

here's hoping google maps/earth follows suite soon -- they have a significantly larger corpus of sensor data to work with. time to splat the world!

[Fiona ❤️& ✌️ @nft_hu]

周日读书日📖
我的好朋友兼饭搭子小Q 出版了他的第一本著作<大国博弈>

小Q本人也是我最有名的朋友之一了，他不仅是B站百大，而且是我心中最称职的美食猎人，住到哪儿吃到哪儿。

如果你想了解国际政治后的权力博弈，如果你想了解联合国工作者的日常，如果你想看这本书，欢迎关注我➕转发本推。

❤️随机抽5位观众送书。因为邮寄问题，限中国大陆地址收货。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why:

1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security
2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count
3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai
4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle
5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now.
6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix
7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax
8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time
9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade
10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff
11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now
12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google.
13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it.
14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america
15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild.
16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act)
17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon.
18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well.
19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important
20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff
21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight?
22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks
23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long
24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition
25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck
26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors.
27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains
28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity.
29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine.
30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE

Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.

[Moonlight🌙月光 @Moon1ightSt]

【专访股神 #Serenity：台股AI真正的大机会，可能还没开始】

这是全网第一篇与 Serenity #白毛股神 @aleabitoreddit 针对台股表现的访谈

访问者：月光Moonlight @Moon1ightSt

（全程英文，由月光整理并翻译成中文）

最近几个月，如果经常关注美股和AI产业链的投资者，应该都会注意到一个名字，就是Serenity

他长期研究股市行情，对于台湾半导体供应链也有相当深入的理解，甚至曾公开讨论过台湾金管会相关法规，让许多人惊讶于他对台湾市场的熟悉程度

这次，月光特别邀请 Serenity 分享他对于台湾AI供应链的看法，以及未来几年最看好的投资方向

月光：近年来你多次公开讨论台湾半导体供应链

在目前这波AI浪潮之下，你认为台湾市场最具潜力的投资机会是什么？

Serenity：我个人认为，Co-Packaged Optics（CPO，共封装光学）将会是下一阶段最大的产业主题

事实上，我从去年就开始布局第一波光通讯超级周期，当时受惠的公司包括

* Lumentum
* Coherent
* AAOI
* AXTI

等光通讯企业

但现在产业正在发生重大转变

在英伟达NVIDIA的推动下，未来光学架构正逐步从传统方案转向CPO架构

根据高盛预测：

* 2026年CPO市场规模几乎接近零
* 未来将成长至910亿美元
* 占整体1540亿美元市场规模中的绝大部分

换句话说，未来几年台湾CPO供应链可能会成为最大的受益者

从CW Laser晶圆厂、光学元件、组装、先进封装到测试环节，几乎整个产业链都会受惠

Serenity最看好的台湾CPO概念股

1. 上诠（3363）这是我最喜欢的标的之一

上诠同时与台积电及辉达供应链有合作关系，主要负责

* FAU（光纤阵列单元）
* 被动光学元件

未来有望成为CPO时代的重要受益者

2. 鸿腾精密旗下讯芯-KY（6451）

讯芯是鸿海体系中的光通讯封装与测试公司

随着2026年下半年CPO开始大规模量产，我认为讯芯将获得相当可观的订单量

3. 精材（3374）

精材是台积电旗下测试厂

由于台积电未来预期将更积极推动垂直整合战略，因此精材有机会获得大量COUPE（台积电硅光子平台）相关测试业务

4. 均华（6830）

这家公司相对低调

但在CPO生产过程中，良率检测将变得极其重要

均华未来有机会成为该领域极具主导地位的检测设备供应商

5. 鑫创电子（8147）

作为英伟达供应链成员之一，主要提供：

* CPO连接器
* Cage模块
* 散热相关组件

未来发展值得持续关注

月光：

那么，除了CPO之外，还有哪些被低估的机会呢？

Serenity：

除了CPO，我认为ASIC供应链也是非常值得关注的方向。

世芯-KY（3661）

我预期世芯未来将取得更多ASIC设计市场份额。

特别值得注意的是：

亚马逊近期的私募投资，被视为世芯获得更多Trainium项目的重要讯号。

此外，世芯与Ayar Labs在CPO领域的合作，也代表其未来市场空间（TAM）仍有进一步扩张机会。

稳懋（3105）

稳懋是全球领先的化合物半导体晶圆代工厂

过去市场对它的印象主要来自：

* SpaceX Starlink供应链
* Broadcom供应链

但我更看好的是它在光通讯领域的发展

稳懋正协助硅光子相关企业扩大雷射器量产能力，这将成为未来新的成长引擎

Broadcom相关供应链

我同样看好与博通相关的台湾供应链企业

例如：

* PCB厂商
* 载板供应商

其中欣兴电子（3037）便是相当有吸引力的标的

联发科（2454）

市场已经非常关注联发科参与Google TPU开发的消息

虽然部分利多已经反映在股价上，但我认为市场对于联发科未来ASIC业务的成长预估仍然偏保守

未来几年，联发科有机会成为美国大型云端服务商Hyperscaler 供应链中极为重要的一环。

月光：

两岸局势会成为最大风险吗？

许多投资人对于两岸关系与地缘政治风险仍然相当担忧。你怎么看？

Serenity：

我个人并不认为台湾AI供应链目前存在泡沫

事实上，许多台湾企业的估值相比美国纳斯达克同类型公司，仍然明显偏低

至于地缘政治风险，我认为市场可能有些过度放大了

原因很简单！台湾已经是全球科技供应链中不可或缺的一部分

我不认为任何国家会选择一种零和博弈式的大规模供应链破坏

当然，从7到10年的长期来看，美国正在透过英特尔等企业建立自己的本土供应链

但在未来两三年内，我并没有看到特别重大的系统性风险

Serenity最后提醒：真正需要关注的是这个指标

如果要说未来最值得追踪的风险因素，那不是两岸关系，而是美国大型云端科技公司的资本支出 CapEx

目前AI产业繁荣的核心动力，来自：

* 微软
* 亚马逊
* Google
* Meta
* Oracle

等大型云端业者持续扩大投资

只要这些企业继续增加AI基础设施建设，台湾供应链就会持续受益

但如果未来某一天，Hyperscaler开始明显削减资本支出，那么台湾AI供应链可能就会出现较大幅度的估值修正

[Bean哥 @BroBean88]

也许这才是 新股神 Serenity 喊单 800V 的原因？

大家应该都知道，Serenity 以前喊单都是精准打击。一个标的、一个逻辑、一个瓶颈。AXTI 磷化铟衬底，SIVE CPO 激光器，HPS.A 变压器，全是一针扎到底的风格。

这次 800V 清单不一样。20 多个标的横跨 7 个市场，从美股到 A 股到港股到日股到巴西股。而且她自己补了一句集思广益，并非个人看好。

感觉不像她平时的做派。

也许她是在觉得 AI 产业链的下一个主战场不在芯片，不在光模块，在电力架构？

而且这个战场大到她一个人研究不完，所以她把全景图摊开来让所有人一起研究？

英伟达去年发了 800V 白皮书，今年 3 月 GTC 上德州仪器和 ST 微电子已经展示了量产方案，Vertiv 和 Eaton 宣布年内出产品。从 PPT 到量产只隔了一年。

这跟她之前每一次换方向的逻辑完全一致。总是在一个方向从"概念"切换到"订单"的那个节点出手。

AXTI 是这样，SIVE 是这样，现在 800V 也是这样。

但这次规模比以前大得多。800V 不只是一颗芯片或者一个材料的故事，是整个数据中心内部供电系统推倒重来。

涉及的公司数量、市场数量、技术分支数量都比之前任何一个方向多一个数量级。

我觉得这也是她选择集思广益而不是精准喊某一个标的的原因吧。

[蓝狐 @lanhubiji]

真实资产上链的趋势已经形成：

稳定币：3086亿美元

基金上链：329亿美元

商品上链：74亿美元

股票上链：17亿美元

更重要的是，呈现出来的趋势，不仅是突破新高，更是在为《清晰法案》之后资产上链暴增做预热。

[Fiona ❤️& ✌️ @nft_hu]

今天有订阅的小伙伴说觉得内存和光互连都觉得恐高不敢买，那我推荐的还是800VDC带来的电力架构下的新机会。
（我个人是觉得内存和光，尤其是光很不错）｜

这部分可以分成三块：
1️⃣数据中心电力基础设施
由施耐德电气（Schneider Electric）、伊顿（Eaton）、维谛技术（Vertiv）等传统电力与配电巨头主导。
掌握高压开关、母线槽以及固态变压器（SST）等中高压设备的关键技术。

通常都是整套系统交付+维护，很稳但是弹性会差一点。

2️⃣电源系统组件与解决方案
由台达电、光宝科技（Lite-On）、Flex 等厂商主导，覆盖从白区（电力机房）到 IT 机柜的直流配电与能量转换环节。

核心产品包括 Power Rack（电源机柜）、BBU（电池备援单元）、超级电容(HSC)、母线与汇流排等。
目标是在高功率密度场景下，实现高效率电力传输与稳定的供电保障。

3️⃣功率半导体解决方案
由英飞凌（Infineon）、瑞萨电子（Renesas）、罗姆（ROHM）、安森美（Onsemi）、德州仪器（TI）等厂商引领。

借助碳化硅（SiC）、氮化镓（GaN）等第三代半导体材料，开发高效率、高功率密度的千伏级开关器件。

这些器件决定了 HVDC 架构在效率、功率密度与系统稳定性方面的性能上限，是整套系统的技术核心之一。

[Evan.Z @ddny09]

台积电创始人张忠谋的告别信：

我已经九十四岁了，这些年，身体的讯号越来越清楚地告诉我时间不多了。五年内，我做了三次心脏手术。糖尿病让我学会节制，也让我明白：人能留下的，不是财富，而是选择。
过去十年，我看着家里的人在规划未来，在他们的未来里，我已经不在了，但他们很富有。我不怪他们，只是明白金钱，从来不能代替信念。所以，当我离开这个世界时，我不会留下任何股份，一股也不留。
台积电将继续上市运行，但我的股份将按照我设计的系统分配：70%给那些与我并肩二十年以上，用双手打造这家公司的工程师与同仁。剩下的30%，将全数捐给慈善与教育基金，支持台湾下一代的科技梦。
我的家人，不需要股份。他们各自有自己的天地妻子投身慈善，女儿在金融界努力，亲人们各自在不同的路上前行。而他们真正得到的，是我一生的收藏：三千多本工程学与科技原典，我收藏的中国书法和绘画约150件著名大师的作品以及一本书，我留给台湾的最后礼物：我的自传，不是关于成功的故事，而是关于「责任」与「选择」的记录。为这片土地再做一次贡献。愿每位仍在努力的台湾人，都能在这本书里，看见属于自己的信念。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection:

It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?

If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.

Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.

$RPI is the perfect example:

1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.

Earnings comes out and I was right.

Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).

So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.

For stuff like $AXTI:

1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls.
7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations.
8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc.

A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up.

With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing:

1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player.
2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here.
3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows).
4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts?
5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess.

_

I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life.

So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers

Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years.

Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels.

Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs.

Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid.

So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff.

Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

[fox hsiao @pirrer]

矽谷有夠捲，現在 @foundersfund 居然把一堆大咖找來一起玩美國狼人殺並拍成節目。

你可能玩過的「狼人殺」，其實是從西方一個更老的遊戲 Mafia 改主題來的。而現在，矽谷把原版搬出來玩了。

這桌玩家你大概都叫得出名字，從 Sam Altman（OpenAI）、Palmer Luckey（Anduril），到 Signal 創辦人 Moxie Marlinspike、Figma 創辦人 Dylan Field、Flexport 的 Ryan Petersen，再加上長壽圈名人 Bryan Johnson、職業撲克牌手 Liv Boeree，十二個人圍著一張圓桌，輪流指認誰是混在裡面的「黑手黨」。

這是 Peter Thiel 的創投 Founders Fund 做的新節目，主持人是行銷長 Mike Solana。他受夠了創投那種無聊內容，覺得總得有更有趣的方式認識一個人。最妙的是拍攝地點選在舊金山 Tosca Cafe，那是當年「PayPal 黑幫」聚會的老地方，在這裡玩 Mafia 一語雙關。

好玩的地方在於，這種遊戲會逼出平常訪談裡看不到的一面。誰能面不改色地說謊，誰一句話就戳破對方，誰又被自己人賣掉。一群習慣掌控全場的人，被丟進一個必須互相欺騙的遊戲裡，那個張力很好看。

我把整集做了繁體中文字幕，連每個人出場的中文名牌都補上了，看他們怎麼互相算計，非常有趣。

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

@gmoneyNFT Hyperliquid

[The White Whale @WhiteWhaleLabs]

Where Has All Of The Liquidity Gone?

Everyone keeps asking why crypto feels dead.

I don’t think crypto is dead.

I think crypto is being diluted by the same entities who once called it home.

For years, crypto was one of the only places on earth where you could find 24/7 markets, insane leverage, endless volatility, and a permissionless casino where anyone with enough courage or stupidity could sit down at a table.

That was the product.

Not decentralization, vibes, whitepapers, or "the future of finance"

The product was opportunity.

But now crypto no longer has a monopoly on that feeling.

Prediction markets are exploding because they offer traders something crypto used to offer better than anyone else: the ability to bet on almost anything, instantly.

Politics.
Sports.
Weather.
Economic data.
Elections.
Pop culture.
Geopolitics.
Whatever the internet is arguing about that day.

That liquidity used to rotate into coins.

Now some of it rotates into “Will this happen by Friday?”

And once someone gets addicted to trading probability itself, a random mid-cap crypto chart starts to look a lot less special. Why ape another recycled L1 narrative when you can trade the actual event everyone is talking about?

Then you have the TradFi invasion of crypto-style perps.

This is the part I think people are still underestimating.

Until recently, no person could wake up at 2AM and use 50x leverage to long or short the S&P 500.

Now that world is here.

The same mechanics that made crypto perps so addictive are being applied to the largest, most liquid, most culturally relevant markets on earth.

Stocks. Indices. Commodities.
Maybe eventually everything.

That changes the game.

Right this very second on Hyperliquid alone there's over 2.6 Billion in Open Interest on all things Tradfi.

That is liquidity that could have been chasing BTC, SOL, ETH, privacy coins, AI coins, or whatever other narrative CT wanted to pretend was inevitable this week.

Instead, it is sitting in a leveraged TradFi market using crypto rails.

And it probably is not going away.

That is the unfortunate reality.

Some of this is not cyclical.

Some of this is permanent.

Prediction markets are not a fad.
Tokenized equities are not a fad.
24/7 TradFi perps are not a fad.
The ability to trade everything, everywhere, all the time is not a fad.

It is the natural evolution of markets.

Crypto gave the world the architecture.

Now the world is plugging other assets into it.

That means crypto assets are competing for attention against a much larger universe than they were before.

The total crypto market cap is no longer just competing with itself.

It is competing with the stock market.

And the stock market is enormous.

Once you let people trade pieces of a $ 60T+ U.S. equity market through crypto-style infrastructure, you have massively expanded the surface area for speculation.

That sounds bullish for rails.

It is not bullish for most tokens.

There is a difference.

A perp DEX doing billions in S&P 500 volume may be great for the exchange.

It does not mean your favorite altcoin will attract the liquidity it used to.

This is the liquidity problem.

Crypto used to be the casino.

Now crypto is becoming the casino building, and no longer the game itself.

And the games on that casino floor are multiplying.

So no, crypto is not dead.

But the old model is dying.

The days where liquidity had nowhere else to go except BTC, ETH, SOL, and whatever narrative CT was farming are fading.

The pie is getting bigger, but the number of slices is growing even faster.

That means weaker tokens bleed harder.

It is liquidity dilution.

The casino expanded.

The question is whether your token is still one of the main tables or just another dusty slot machine sitting in the corner.

🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋