crowdturtle 🐢

Data scientist in big tech. Investor in cash-flowing real estate, special situations in public securities, and blockchain.

[crowdturtle 🐢 @crowdturtle]

@RamaswmySridhar @alighodsi why are you guys fighting?!??!

[sridhar @RamaswmySridhar]

14/16 anthropic's new s-1 shows the scale: $265.6b in future fixed/minimum purchases and $321.4b of leases not yet commenced as of june 2026. separate long-dated buckets, some conditional—not cash due today.

[sridhar @RamaswmySridhar]

15/16 also, don't confuse exposure with failure. anthropic had $16.3b of first-half revenue; compute expense was 55% of sales versus 201% a year earlier. the core question is whether demand keeps outgrowing committed cost.

[crowdturtle 🐢 @crowdturtle]

@emilychangtv proof that men and women CAN be friends

[crowdturtle 🐢 @crowdturtle]

@rochestersnitch @LoewyLawFirm Kind of makes me think it’s exactly a coin flip

[Haider. @haider1]

another terrible example of how clueless most people are about exponential progress

2 years ago, people in the math subreddit were questioning whether AI can solve unsolved math problems in a few decades. now AI has proposed a solution to one Millennium Prize Problem with more within reach

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

They all told you that inference was not a good business

It was wrong

[Will Manidis @WillManidis]

i've been hammering this since 2015 (there are substacks, somewhere)- but the first "primitive" we will need to lose to advance biology is the idea of a pharma company as such. drug programs can be cleanly seen as baskets of risk and the platonic ideal is vanishingly asset light

[tenso @distributedkv]

ngl this is getting out of hands.

[Jimmy Apples 🍎/acc @apples_jimmy]

This is why we do ai.

Very asi pilled.

[crowdturtle 🐢 @crowdturtle]

@boyhell Persian nurse

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Most surprising line in the S-1:

“Anthropic's revenue from Fortune 500 customers paying $100K+ a year averaged under 0.1% of those customers' total expenses in the September 2026 quarter. Over half the Fortune 500 is in that group.”

Absolutely wild given ~$75b in revenue.

[crowdturtle 🐢 @crowdturtle]

@SoHoShithead Bingo

[dnap @dnapway]

Dario reveals the people who called his GPT-2 fears "pseudoscience" in 2019 are now all applying for jobs at AI labs

"I personally was super freaked out by [GPT-2]. I looked at it and I said, my God, you just scale this thing up another factor of a million and it'll be better than humans at everything. This is the defining economic and scientific moment of the modern age. We just don't know it yet. This is going to determine the fate of nations and economies and the future of humanity."

"Maybe 10% of the people around me had exactly the same reaction, and it was often the smartest ones. 90% of the people around me, because GPT-2's capabilities in any particular area were not that impressive, it could translate languages, summarize a document and write a few lines of code here and there. It was the broadness and the generality."

"But people would look at it and say, in any particular area, that doesn't seem so smart. And so many people just shrugged and they just dismissed it."

"I just look at it and I say it's the same thing over and over again. The limitations of the models, six months from now, the things that seemed hard, they're going to be easy. 12 months from now, the things that seemed impossible, the models are going to be doing them regularly."

"It's everything we saw with GPT-2; we're seeing it over and over again in wider and wider swaths of the world. And the world is gradually finally being convinced."

Daniela Amodei: "I remember at the time there were some very well-respected computer scientists and AI and ML leaders who basically bullied some of the researchers who worked on [GPT-2] on Twitter and were like, this is stupid. We don't know why you guys are even talking, this model is so incapable."

"It was like you were sort of a quack if you believed this was a really significant moment."

Dario: "That's all been memory-holed. All the researchers who were like, oh, this is pseudoscience, it doesn't make sense, all of them are applying for jobs at the LLM companies."

"We never say it out loud to any particular one, but we look at them and they're like, we remember what you were saying in 2019. You have no credibility on this matter."

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

Taps sign

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

It’s kinda crazy to me that we melt sand down, clean it to 99.99999% purity, literal wizards have to draw it slowly into an ingot, we cut it, inscribe a hundred billion little on/off switches on it, and when you run electric current through it you can do basic arithmetic, which when you do enough of it can do any math on the planet, and which describes reality well enough that we can teach it the ontological meaning of words and their distance from each other on a high-dimensional space, and if you ask, it can tell you what word comes next and that apparently is powerful enough that if you do it a hundred billion times it’s the smartest thing to ever exist

oh yeah and we use this primarily for email

[Lucas Beyer (bl16) @giffmana]

can't believe it's actually working

[crowdturtle 🐢 @crowdturtle]

crypto is absurdly scary right now tbh

[Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_]

OpenAI has verified that no existing cryptosystems are compromised by today’s result. Looking at the current trendline though, Erdős, Navier-Stokes, the OpenAI 700+ GitHub dump, and today’s release were all in the last six months. It's hard to deny where this is going.

[Nicholas Fabiano, MD @NTFabiano]

Action-oriented people are more likely to achieve difficult goals.

Readiness is a result, not a requirement.

[Rishabh Karnawat @rishabhkio]

This summer, I had dinner in San Francisco with a founder who runs a $13 billion company. At one point I asked him how he got through the early days, when it felt as though the company might die, when there seemed to be no future and everything felt impossible. His answer has stayed with me ever since. He said that the problem in front of you will be solved regardless. Either you solve it and carry the company forward, or someone else will come along and solve it. But one way or another, it gets solved. The only question is whether it will be you.