James Ruel

[Jesse Olson @JesseOlson]

$MSTR Adam and Eve double top pattern continues.

Price target is $80, this would put price -49% below the 200-week SMA.

Price is currently -26% below and trending to be lowest weekly close of this bear market.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

This is going to age so badly so quickly, feel free to bookmark

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

I have a strong gut feeling that, 2 weeks ago, Trump was informed about oil inventories approaching critically low levels, forcing the price to snap back to reality because soon there won't be enough to fulfill all the demand.

Since then, he has done all he could to "reopen" the SoH, to the point he ended up accepting all "unacceptable" Iran's requests that have NEVER changed since April

Now the US government is rushing to reopen the SoH, aiming to restore the traffic back to the pre-war state. This is something that, objectively, is impossible to achieve because of the mines in the water, Iran's strong grip over it, the war damage that will take months to repair, and the shipping industry unwilling to venture within the strait till there is 110% certainty the conflict won't escalate again.

As I write these words, the Israeli army is still in Lebanon and has no intention to leave it. Objectively speaking, this means there won't be any official MoU signature between the US and Iran on Friday that starts the 60-day negotiation phase. Furthermore, Trump already said in a NYT interview on Monday that if he does not reach a satisfactory agreement with Iran, especially on the Uranium topic, he will resume the military campaign.

Yesterday, a friend told me, "The market isn't trading based on reality; it is just betting the house on Trump"

So far this week, there has been no meaningful pickup of traffic in the SoH despite Trump's rush to announce it was "fully reopened"

Buyers around the world are still sitting on the sidelines; winter restocking is even over a month late, and peak driving season is starting. India is already rationing fuel, and the same is starting to happen in Russia, in case you missed the news. Refining spreads remain close to the peak too, as a sign of how strong demand is.

This is the simple reality, and traders are sticking their heads deep in the sand to avoid seeing it betting on a Trump's "miracle", but the last time I checked miracles only exist in the Bible

[Jesse Olson @JesseOlson]

@Roman_Trading If you try to time the exact bottom, then you buy all the way down.

If you wait for a higher probability of a reversal, then you wait to buy the right dip. https://t.co/5pya2ia6aK

[Marty Bent @MartyBent]

If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

Caught up with @jvisserlabs to discuss the emergence of the agentic economy, whether or not AI is in a bubble, and what it means for bitcoin in the long term.

Must watch.

[Jesse Olson @JesseOlson]

$BTC has hit all four targets. ✅

Fourth target needs to hold as support or watch the blue line get retested.

You dismissed these charts? Now you know to follow me and turn on notifications. 🤝

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Copper now diverging from gold in a meaningful way.

Yes, AI, industrial demand, and onshoring are part of the story.

But the real driver is a tightening supply-demand imbalance that the market is only beginning to price in.

That said:

Metals rarely stay disconnected for long.

This gap is setting the stage for gold to become the next catch-up trade, in my view.

https://t.co/sJjIAEqwqb

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

SpaceX has almost finished writing V1.0 of an in-house AI training stack in C that exact-maps to 220k GB300s with 800G NICs, making heavy use of pipeline parallelism and getting as close to bare metal as possible.

The potential speed improvement vs JAX for large training runs is over an order of magnitude.

[IREN @IREN_Ltd]

IREN has entered into a $1.6bn purchase agreement with Dell for air-cooled Blackwell systems to support its previously announced 5-year, $3.4bn managed services AI cloud contract.

The systems are expected to be deployed across existing data centers at Childress, Texas, with commissioning targeted for early 2027.

Upon commissioning, the AI cloud contract is expected to increase IREN's annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) from $3.7bn to $4.4bn.

@danroberts0101, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of IREN commented:

“Securing capacity and accelerating commissioning are our top priorities in a market where time-to-compute is everything. Hyperscalers, enterprises and developers choose IREN as a partner because we own and control the full stack - the physical infrastructure, the compute, and the operational capability to deploy at scale.

Our relationship with Dell ensures access to hardware at the scale and speed the market demands. Every deployment we complete makes the next one faster, and that compounding execution advantage is what we are building.”

Learn more: https://t.co/xcg2XFO5b2

[Erik Townsend 🛢️ @ErikSTownsend]

The final point Rory cites from Iran in the below tweet is the most critical one.

Iran has been crystal clear since the conflict began that they are unwilling to give up possession of their ~440kg of 60%-enriched HEU. That's the central "risk" that Trump and Netanyahu started this whole war over. When Trump said Iran was "just weeks away from a nuclear weapon", what he really meant is that it would only take a few weeks to enrich that 60% HEU to 90% (weapons grade). That's what the whole war was started over in the first place, and it will always be the central issue that has to be resolved before the conflict can end.

It's plausible that Trump is giving up to save face, declare victory, and move on. In that case this whole conflict will have been for nothing. Far more likely, Trump is buying more "negotiations occurring under ceasefire" time to avoid congressional approval requirements. It's also plausible that Trump incorrectly believes that Iran will allow its 60%-enriched HEU to leave Iran, and when he finds out they refused (consistent with exactly what they've repeatedly said they would do), he may accuse them of breaking the agreement.

It's crystal clear that Iran sees that outcome coming, and is "in damage control mode" now, making it publicly clear that they have not agreed to hand over their HEU. They don't expressly say here that they will never turn it over, but they've made clear in other statements in the last few days that this exact order was given by the Supreme Leader this past week.

I therefore conclude 1 of 2 things has to be true: 1) This is another "fake news" peace deal that's intended to buy more time before facing congressional approval challenges, but will ultimately prove just as meaningless as the last several similar "peace deals" that never panned out, OR 2) Trump is giving up and will try and save face by declaring victory, taking credit for reopening the strait, and might then pivot to Epstein-files tactics to brush minor details like Iran still has the nuclear material that could be enriched to weapons-grade in just a few weeks and Iran will begin charging massive tolls for traffic transiting the Strait under the proverbial rug.

But #2 is very unlikely, because Rubio has already made public statements (Saturday, from India) reiterating the nuclear materials hand-over red line. He wouldn't be pushing that message if Trump was giving up and looking to save face.

I lean toward #1 above, considering that Iran has already emphasized that Trump's formative MOU "does not in any way mean free passage thru the Strait".

Remember, Trump needs to avoid any "resumption of the war" because he's already well beyond the 60-day deadline for congressional approval to continue the war. So this whole thing looks to me like a tactic to defer the nuclear materials negotiation (i.e. the real "red line" substantive matters that were the main reason the war started) into a 30-day drag-this-out phase, where we get at least some traffic through the strait and stay immune from congressional approval demands.

If that's right, it will prolong this until both sides eventually reach the obvious conclusion that neither is willing to bend on its red-line demands, which all center on the nuclear material hand-over that hasn't even been discussed in the negotiations that precipitated this weekend's "peace deal" announcement from @POTUS.

If you're tempted to say "But...They are talking about opening the Strait NOW, and that will solve the global energy supply problem, so this is still massively bearish oil prices", think again. Better yet, follow @CommodMkt. Even if the Strait were fully re-opened to pre-war traffic levels (very unlikely), it would take 6-8 weeks for the tankers to reach their destinations before energy supply could begin to recover. By then we'll have reached the next red-line challenge in this negotiation. Bottom line, this ain't over till it's over. And it's not over nor can it or will it end this weekend.

I'm working on a Substack post going into more detail on all this now. It will explain what the MSM have consistently failed to explain: Why the 440kg of 60% HEU is so important, and why there seems to be such a disconnect between Trump, Lindsay Graham and others insisting "Iran was only a few weeks away from a nuclear weapon" vs. Tulsi Gabbard insisting "Iran doesn't have and hasn't had a nuclear weapons program for over 20 years". Believe it or not, they're both right, and the explanation is nuanced. Follow my substack now if you want to be notified. Should be posted by early Sunday morning.

[Daniel Roberts @danroberts0101]

Childress. Liquid cooling online.

[“Coosh” Alemzadeh @AlemzadehC]

#Bitcoin thanks you for the map and will take the wheel from here

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Amen, brother Raoul! Ditto RE: loving your work too. Thank you for the continued education and for using your platform for the greater good as well. This is so much bigger than investing. Humanity needs more brave people like you. 

I wholeheartedly agree with you on the underlying technical dynamic being real. I’ve been privileged to observe what the technology can do at the absolute highest level that is just now becoming available for commerical use and… 🤯. Many jobs will evaporate in the coming years. Our society will experience radical change. There’s no doubt about that. 

I simply struggle to agree with the premise that any country can “win” this fabricated race. Winning implies the use of military force to guarantee lasting victory that neither country is likely to pursue because of fear of retaliation and escalation. The post-WWII proliferation of nuclear arms around the world is strong evidence against the feigned “race” thesis. If there was ever a miliary race to win, it was that one. And winning meant next to nothing in comparative advantage terms. 

In my view, what is more likely to occur is the world permanently splinters into two nodes with China AI and U.S. AI underpinning them. Treaties, tariffs, sanctions, capital controls, and even threats of physical violence will be used to force countries to choose—i.e., more of what we have now. 

Even if China AI is much more advanced than U.S. AI, the U.S. would simply ban its allies from using it. We still have 3,700 nukes and most of the Western world's proven petroleum reserves factoring in Venezuela. The U.S.’s military power nor its economy are going away if China beats us to ASI. That’s the fallacy which I sought to expose in my post. 

Thanks as always for the super thoughtful discussion!

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

AI & FOURTH TURNING: I feel obligated to chime in here and equally obligated to start by saying that my commentary is in no way intended as a slight to my good friend and mentor, @RaoulGMI.

My commentary is not about Raoul’s substance, but about the general framing regarding AI—and, more importantly, who benefits and who loses from said framing. What framing, you ask? The framing that pits the U.S. and China against each other in a feigned “race” to develop AGI and ASI.

I distinctly recall the U.S. “winning” the nuclear arms race and that has neither stopped another ~10,000 nuclear warheads from being developed by allies and [mostly] enemies alike—nor has it granted the U.S. a meaningful advantage over its rivals in achieving its military objectives (see: Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and now, Iran).

The “U.S. vs. China” framing regarding the development of AI is little more than a convenient narrative designed to engineer a fear-based sense of urgency that stimulates the capital-raising efforts of entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley, the portfolios of investors on Wall Street, and the campaign-finance efforts of politicians in D.C. and Mar-a-Lago.

FWIW, China has amassed 600 nuclear weapons—up 71% since 2020—with another 400 projected to come online by 2030 (source: Federation of American Scientists via Visual Capitalist). Anyone who has studied Sun Tzu’s Art of War knows that China has no intention of using these weapons of mass destruction on the U.S.—just as we have no intention of using any one of our 3,700 nuclear warheads on them. This is all a big game designed to make people in/around the defense industry wealthy and powerful—in that order.

Simply put, the goal of this latest form of brilliantly engineered sophism is to foist AI upon our society at a SPEED that is guaranteed to consolidate wealth and power on a historic scale that will make even the Gilded Age titans blush.

Make wise choices at the ballot box before the demise of our democracy renders you and your children unable to. The tech oligarchs are already spending billions of dollars to purchase favorable election results (for THEM) at every level of OUR government.

This undemocratic form of gerrymandering, whereby one small group of people wields substantially more political power than its members’ individual votes allow, will only accelerate if your passive approval of the speed of deployment and lack of thoughtful regulation of AI allows income and wealth inequality to explode to unprecedented levels over the coming half decade.

Please know that I am wagering my credibility to communicate all this as one of the most steadfast bulls on global Wall Street throughout the AI theme (since January 2023; ChatGPT debuted on November 30, 2022)—save for a brief-but-prescient two-month stint as a bear that culminated in mid-to-late April 2025.

My goal with this post is not to help you make or save money. My goal is simply to use the intellect, education, experience, and platform that I’ve been blessed with to contribute to a more prosperous world for ALL, not just the conniving FEW.

I love you and Jesus Christ loves you,
—Skipper 💜

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

When silver was $49, I said it should double and then correct. Overall, I think that was good general guidance.

[Jordan Lindsey @TradersMastery]

Now everyone wants to talk about this.

Here we go.

[Jackson @macrojack21]

252% market cap to GDP

the highest in history

the strongest bull case for bitcoin

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

I have changed my mind on how AI will impact jobs in America.

Previously, I believed AI would replace many entry level roles typically filled by young employees. The technology would then work its way up the organization and eventually reduce the total number of jobs in a company.

The data is saying something different, so when I get new information I am willing to change my mind.

The number of software engineers being hired has been increasing. The number of open software engineer roles is growing.

The number of new college grads who get hired has increased 5.6% over the last 12 months. The unemployment level for people aged 20-24 years old who have a college degree has fallen from nearly 9% to almost 5% as well.

The Wall Street Journal recently wrote “AI created 640,000 jobs between 2023 and 2025 in the U.S., according to an analysis by LinkedIn of job posting data, including new white-collar positions such as Head of AI and AI engineer.”

And I am starting to see companies throughout our portfolio aggressively hiring to keep up with the demand for their products and services.

If AI can make employees more productive, which is widely accepted as fact, then companies are going to want as many productive units of labor as possible. This is a key reason why I am changing my mind.

AI appears to be a magical technology that will make companies more productive and more profitable. The net result will be more corporations, more startups, and more jobs.

All three are big, positive wins for the American economy.

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

@SecScottBessent Prove it.

World Liberty Financial & Trump token. 😂

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

BITCOIN: With this roadmap analysis you won't catch the bottom, but you will avoid bias, and you will be able to identify the new bull market when it comes 👇