cryptomedius

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel How can mass produced Model S/X be a good investment if these collector cars with significant historical value have lost money in real terms?

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel There were ~2500 Tesla Roadsters ever made, with ~60 sold in the UK, and currently only ~35 are still on the road. Priced at ~£100k at the time, with 5% inflation, that makes it £200k+ in today's money. You can buy these ultra rare roadsters today for £110k - 155k

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel I would also add not to ship it to your home address or use your real name and contact details - the @Ledger data leak is a perfect example of why.

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel Lets take $0.65 as a realistic average, that’s ~$125-$156 per day, or $45-$56k per year in gross revenue. Maintenance costs would likely be ~$15-20k, so now that’s $25-40k net.

Why would anyone pay $150k for a car that earns only $25-40k per year?

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel Uber drivers earn ~$1 per mile before costs. A robotaxi Tesla would likely operate 16 hours a day max (the rest is for maintenance etc), with average speed of 12-15 mph, it would cover ~192-240 miles per day. Earnings per mile will likely drop to ~$0.50–$0.75 due to competition.

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel Would be interesting to compare it with US inflation chart for the same period.

It seems that the expansion happens during periods of inflation and tech breakthroughs (web, ai). Possibly 3-3.5 will become the new average, and retest of the old average (~2) could be a strong buy.

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@ClassicDavid3 @MarcDeMesel Well, it would also mean that BTC will make a new low (lower than previous cycle), AND it would mean that the major top is in (which is only 35% above previous cycle high) - I'm not betting on any of this, but if we were to go full bear from here - that's not out of question imho

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@ClassicDavid3 @MarcDeMesel Last cycle people were saying 15k - yes, but then it was clarified by Saylor and he mentioned 12k (something like that if I recall correctly). As of now, 15k is "only" 84% from the current top, still very much within "normal" bear market correction. What is so special about 30k?

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel *correction:

~20% chance for Exact 1 success
~30% for exact 2
~25% for 3
~14% for 4
~5% for 5
~1% for 6
~0% for 7 and 8

So risk to reward per individual investment should be very high. Do you know your average ratio? And how do you decide how much to allocate per investment?

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel Lets assume you managed to find 8 non correlated investments with the following risks:

3 allocations with 80% chance of total loss
3 with 70%
1 with 60%
1 with 50%

The probability of success:

~95% that 1 will make it
~18% for 2
~5% for 3
Less than 1% for 4

Sounds good, right?

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel @Will_Be_Free2 https://t.co/b6cEwkEOol

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@Will_Be_Free2 @MarcDeMesel BYD is a vertically integrated company, and their Seagull is around $10k, is that not cost effective enough?
https://t.co/XQJy6rLtPq

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel I found this book very helpful. Some parts might be a bit painful to read, but I would still recommend it. Have you read it?
https://t.co/qjREz0EyfX

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel You are a brave man Marc openly talking above it in public, hope you managed to break the cycle and pass only love and positivity onto your kids.

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel I completely agree with this. Laws around structuring, etc may change, but providing financial education to our kids is absolute must.

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel It doesn’t sound like a low risk investment to me. What am I missing? Also, wouldn’t you need to own a lot of properties to make it meaningful? And what about the management costs for all of that?

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel A 10% rental yield sounds great, but in which country? And what about the total return on investment, including capital appreciation, taxes, and other expenses?

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel This way, if something were to happen to me tomorrow, I would have peace of mind knowing my family would likely be financially secure. But with your approach, who would manage everything if you were gone tomorrow?

[cryptomedius @cryptomedius]

@MarcDeMesel Shorting is Hard. Do you know anyone who makes money (consistently) by shorting stocks? Market can continue to be irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Look what Chris is doing with $MSTR and he is a Pro: https://t.co/ctFLYDWjRf

[Chris Dunn @ChrisDunnTV]

Bought the breakout on this mystery chart today 😎