#ETH is still repeating last cycle through the lens of monetary policy.
In 2019, during QT, a wedge formed that ETH mostly stayed in. It then had a fakeout above it before falling below it.
After #ETH fell below its wedge in 2019, the Fed ended QT shortly after.
When the Fed ended QT in 2019, ETH/BTC bottomed. ETH/USD then got a rally but then went deeper into the regression band a few months later.
This cycle is playing out in a similar manner, the only thing that really changed is how much longer QT is lasting.
Right now, #ETH is breaking down into its regression band, from the wedge it formed during QT.
Decent odds the Fed ends QT within the next few months.
The Fed does not care about ETH and is obviously not basing monetary policy around what crypto is doing, but I think that crypto can be useful into understanding the general health of the consumer, and thus the reaction function of the Federal Reserve.