Cornel Ciocirlan

Fighting against 21st century plague: disinformation. Supporting Ukraine. Views my own.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

Finally a realistic estimate of China's military spending.

$700B in real terms / $1.2T PPP-adjusted sure feels credible given the massive investments China is making in their army, navy, air force, nuclear, etc.

China is preparing for war.

Cc @ElbridgeColby

[Mackenzie Eaglen @MEaglen]

Beijing's military budget $$$ is *much* larger than the Chinese Communist Party reports publicly.

[Rush Doshi @RushDoshi]

This is an interesting question. My take: I do not quite accept the notion that China did not seek to "weaponize" rare earths and instead stumbled into a position of advantage. For at least 16 years, and likely more, the purpose has been an economic weapon. This is not like, say, solar or EVs, where excess capacity is sort of an accident.

Here, for example, is a semi-authoritative book cited by @JohnF_Sullivan on rare earth strategy written in 2011 for the state China Economic Publishing House the year after the Japan situation:

"What magical quality do rare earths possess that makes the usually arrogant and domineering Americans so furious? What magical quality do rare earths posses that leaves the usually wealthy and arrogant Japanese grief-stricken? China is the only country in the world capable of supplying all 17 rare earth elements, particularly holding a larger share of heavy rare earths that have prominent uses in military applications. To change China’s international position in the rare earth industry, since 2009, the Chinese government has launched a vigorous rare earth defense war, adopting a series of rectification measures including suspending approval of mining rights, controlling total mining volume, reducing export quotas, raising export tariffs and and severely cracking down on rare earth smuggling."

A key purpose of these post-2009 steps, which PRECEDE China's weaponization against Japan in 2010, was to hone a better coercive instrument.

Then there is some empirical evidence suggesting PRC action in this sector was about leverage.

First, most obviously, China used this as a coercive instrument in 2010. That shows, for at least 16 years, they have understood it as a critical leverage point.

Second, China's government has for decades manipulated the price of rare earths to prevent anyone else from achieving scale - dropping the price to kill foreign investment. Why did they do this when they already had 90% market dominance? The logic is toward control, not profit, and it is not the result of disaggregated independent Chinese market actors (which do not exist in this sector).

Third, related to that point, if this industry operated on economic logic, we would probably see more fragmentation. Indeed, for a brief time, we did see that before 2010. But then the PRC sharply consolidated the rare earths industry into state-backed companies. They shut down, arrested, harassed, and outright expropriated private actors. This was partly to ensure greater state control over external flows - the better to maintain leverage. The quote above refers to that effort.

Fourth, I do not think China's controls on rare earth minerals were modeled off U.S. controls. For example, the October controls went far beyond any U.S. controls. China's idea was any product, anywhere in the world, with .1% value coming from Chinese produced rare earths, required a license to be sold to anyone else in the world. The closest analogy -- and Chinese scholars have said this directly -- is to U.S. financial sanctions, not export controls.

Fifth, this is not a case where "there are many different actors, and they often overperform in search of particular targets." The industry has for a long time just been a few actors, tied to the state, acting at the state's direction. China's cultivation of leadership in this sector dates back to the 1960s, accelerating in the 1980s, with direct involvement of Deng's family in the 1990s and Premier Wen in the 2000s.

The empirical evidence seems to indicate a conscious desire to dominate this sector. One can debate whether or not such an intention was justifiable given U.S. control over chokepoints like finance.

But I think it is hard to advance the claim this was just the independent action of market participants that happened to accidentally create a position of extreme concentration and dominance.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@Brnas05576799 @WarMonitor3 So you arw saying Russia should nuke Ukraine ? 'Cause thats the only part of their arsenal they haven't used yet.

Is Russia ready for a world where Latvia, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Romania and even Moldova get nukes ?

Go back under whatever rock you crawled out of.

[Moy Miz @moymiz]

Russia doesn’t do tourist visas for Americans right now. The State Dept has a Level 4 advisory - Do not travel. So when @RealCandaceO shows up in Moscow calling it a “family vacation,” ask yourself: how does that happen?

Remember Brittney Griner? Russia held her like a chess piece until we traded a literal arms dealer to get her back. Americans aren’t tourists to the Kremlin; they’re assets.

Candace didn’t sneak in. She was invited to speak at Putin’s own economic forum, alongside sanctioned Russian state figures. The only way an American walks into Russia in 2026 is if Russia opens the door.

Call it what you want. But nothing about that trip was a vacation.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@Hexagram012 @andrewmichta Mearsheimer has been 99% wrong on anything concerning Russia-Ukraine.

And in this war being "neutral" means being pro Russia (the aggressor).

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

Can't believe I am quoting Laura Loomer. Better late than never I guess :):

[Laura Loomer @LauraLoomer]

I don’t think conservatives realize how much Russian propaganda we have been fed over the last few years as “independent journalism”.

It’s starting to become very clear to me how many people who claimed to be defenders of the West were just saying that to suck in a pro-West audience so they could slowly brainwash them with foreign propaganda until they could convince their viewers to work against the West.

Those “interviews” we all defended were not actually interviews. They were psychological operations meant to weaponize political factions in America for the purpose of pushing foreign interests.

And many of us fell for it because we let our anger with the system get the best of us and we decided to trust personalities who have never been honest about who they are and where they come from.

I’m starting to think the entire podcast ecosystem is and always has been on giant psychological and information warfare operation.

Criminals and terrorists no longer need billions of dollars for weapons and aircraft. They just need an influencer and podcast budget to create more damage to our society than high powered weapons.

I hope the DOJ will investigate all of this.
It’s a shame so many false accusations of Russian collusion were spread over the last 10 years as a way to smear Donald Trump and his allies with lies, because now that actual Russian interference is here in our media and on social media, nobody believes it’s real.

It’s starting to get very creepy just how coordinated, organized and well funded this OPP is.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@ChrisO_wiki This is really dumb.

A small tweak to the AI algorithms would make these dazzle-painted objects 10 times easier to identify & lock on to than regular camouflage...

Also 100% positive military gear. No second guessing needed :)

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@DeverPepijn @raging545 For the last 30 days it has been and still is.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@Euractiv The world is burning and you guys talk about passenger rights when the EU already has the *best* rights on the planet.

Priorities please.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@7daystravelling @VadymVietrov Bro, he is Ukrainian and you are in Switzerland. He forgot more about Russia than you ever knew.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@7daystravelling @VadymVietrov Total pension income for average Russian retiring at 65: €21,888

Total pension income for average Frenchman retiring at 65: €390,960.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@KennethFitzsi15 @Tatarigami_UA In reality NATO should create a 30-50km buffer (no fly) zone over Ukrainian territory bordering any NATO country.

But this would require close integration of NATO and Ukraine Air Defense.

Not easily done with a non NATO member.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@KennethFitzsi15 @Tatarigami_UA Romania has the capability (its F16s shot down a Russian drone over Estonia last week) and will

This drone likely flew over Ukraine until the last 1-2 km when it turned towards RO over a populated area (Galați city).

Not easy to pull the trigger.

[U.S. Ambassador to NATO @USAmbNATO]

We stand with our NATO Ally Romania and condemn this reckless incursion on its territory. Our thoughts are with the injured in Galati. We will defend every inch of NATO territory.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@TateTheTalisman You listen to your rear end too much if you think it is "very good authority"

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@candycakes72 @BenRothenberg It *is* the answer. She didnt have to like war propaganda on her social media. She chose to.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@vick86spb @lostinthelightz Ukrainians are not war criminals. Russians are, and they do not deserve to compete let alone have their anthem played.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@Matthew60702433 @lostinthelightz The Russian anthem ahould *never* play at any sports wvent until they stop the war they started.

And in the meantime, the West should boycott gymnastics and set up an alternative federation. Let the Russians and Belarussians compete with themselves.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@Mylovanov Whatever you do, judicial reforms must be very carefully designed.

Term limits, and political oversight on judges (while respecting their independence) are key.

Learn from Romania. Independent judges can be (and some are) corrupt. There needs to be external oversight.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

@Blyaphocat @JamesEagle17 they gained 20% in 2022. almost nothing since.

[Cornel Ciocirlan @ctrlro]

Just because someone designs iPhones doesn't make them qualified to design Ferraris.

[Miguel A. Pastor @mapastor69]

@pablodevillota Han contratado al diseñador de Apple para hacer un Ferrari. Apple lleva explotando años el mismo diseño, tanto que ya resulta cansino. Ahora diseña un coche que es un iPhone con ruedas. Un coche que nace cansino (estéticamente digo). Ni siendo multimillonario me lo compraría.