蔡锡彬Robin

日拱一卒 功不唐捐

[Vega Hao @Vegahao]

李录这场88分钟的完整对谈，信息量巨大！我制作了中英双语字幕版本，建议转发收藏

AI的成本与泡沫、中国制造业与房地产、股市未来的角色、明确否定加密货币，以及做投资最难跨过去的人性。

其中有一个判断，值得所有在中国做投资、做生意的人反复琢磨：你所在的行业，究竟是国家要实现的目标，还是实现目标需要付出的代价？

在中国投资，先看懂“目标与代价”。 李录认为，中国的发展往往伴随着阶段性的重点转移。一个时期大力支持的行业，到下一个时期，可能就要承担转型的成本。房地产、制造业、环保，都可以放进这个框架里理解。对企业家和投资者来说，光看行业过去赚了多少钱还不够，还要看它现在处在什么位置。

中国股市未来的位置，要放进家庭资产负债表里看。 现场有人直接问：中国股市到底属于目标，还是代价？他的回答很有意思：当房地产在家庭和国家财富中的占比下降，什么资产来承接财富积累？在他看来，股权能分享企业创造的价值，也与经济增长相互促进。这是他的长期判断，至于什么时候发生，他没有给出短期时间表。

AI很有用，也很昂贵，最终仍然要算账。 他反复强调，AI会持续产生增量成本，算力、资本开支、收入和利润都绕不过去。能力越来越强，不代表投入就可以无限扩大。技术可以带来巨大变化，企业最终还是要面对财务纪律，市场也可能在这个过程中经历多轮繁荣与萧条。

中美AI的区别，他用两个问题来概括。 硅谷更关心：这项技术还能做什么，边界能推到哪里？中国企业也关心技术边界，但会更直接地追问：它能为我的消费者和企业客户做什么？一个更强调探索能力，一个更强调客户用途。这是他观察两边商业路径的切入点。

资金越集中，越值得看看被冷落的公司。 当资本压倒性地涌向少数热门企业，市场另一边可能就有优秀公司在低价交易。他认为，美国、中国和其他市场都存在这种分化。机会可能因此增加，但前提很难：你得能在别人不断赚钱、市场不断强化同一个叙事时，仍然保持自己的判断。

对加密货币，他的态度非常明确。 被现场问到时，他直接表示自己不考虑，并认为它最终会自行消失，也不认可它的社会价值。这部分肯定会引发争议。可以不认同他的结论，但值得连着前面关于货币、购买力和价值创造的讨论一起听，看看他的判断是从哪里来的。

价值投资最难的一关，是你到底想让市场服务你，还是指挥你。 有位做了两年价值投资的观众问：坚持理念却跑输市场，甚至影响职业发展，怎么办？李录把问题拉回了人性：既想长期做正确的事，又想每年、每季度、每个月都交出漂亮业绩，最后甚至希望每小时都赚钱，人就会逐渐变成投机者。做这门生意，还必须找到愿意与你长期同行、理念一致的资金。

最后讲到人生时，他把复利落在了几个很具体的东西上：知识、信任关系、智慧、健康。

找到适合自己的方向，选择值得合作的人，让这些东西持续积累。过程中会有好运，也会有坏运气；关键是尽量保住已经积累下来的东西，让时间继续发挥作用。

中英双语完整版放下面。尤其推荐把“目标与代价”、AI成本，以及最后关于职业和人生的问答连起来看。88分钟，可以留一个完整的时间慢慢听。

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

@BitcoinPulseX BTC

[AYi @AYi_AInotes]

卧槽兄弟们，这个必须卧槽了，
老马掀桌子了！！
Cursor Pro 一整年免费领，
相当于一年 240 刀的 Cursor Pro 直接白送啊他喵的，

不用学生证，不用教育邮箱，全球任何人都能领，
属于官方开启的全员零元购模式了😳

正常 20 刀一个月的顶级 AI 编程工具账单直接清零，
截止 10 月 15 号，就剩三天，两分钟三步搞定，手慢无。

这次福利极其直接，没有任何套路：

→ 无需学生认证，普通邮箱就能参与
→ 全球所有人可用，完全零门槛上车
→ 正常价格 20 刀/月，直接送 Pro 兑换码
→ 全球黑客松 MLH 官方直发，正规有效

整个领取流程只有两分钟，三步搞定：

1️⃣ 去 MLH 活动页注册并签到 Hacktoberfest 挑战
2️⃣ 注册并下载 Cursor，登录你的账号
3️⃣ 留意注册邮箱，收到 Promo Code 后在 Cursor 设置里的 Billing 页面手动升级 Pro 兑换

截止时间就在 10 月 15 日，兑换码由官方分批通过邮件发出，早提交早进发放队列。

工具是拿来跑真实生产力的，能零成本白嫖一年 240 刀的顶级 AI 编程神器，省下的全都是真金白银。

官方活动入口和详细避坑指南放一楼了，抓紧去占车位。

[「 𝕲𝖔𝖔𝖓」 @goon_crypto]

most bundle funders claim fees and sell. the $AUR funder claimed a 12x and fed the whole thing back to the agents market making his chart

@ripchillpill broke down the full mechanism with @mynt_josh on @MCGlive... heres what matters

$AUR is bundle cat's dragon companion, launched through @Moshdottrade on pons, paired against tokenised gold ($GLD). rips wallet funded the whole bundle, 4.7 GLD, and that wallet committed 100% of its fee share to the ai agents making the market

1. the fee split

> 1.55% total trading fee
> 0.30% to pons
> 0.25% to mosh
> 1.00% to the bundle funder
> funder share goes to the swarm, not his wallet

2. the first send

> 4.7 GLD bundle earned 57.6GLD in fees by oct 6, ~12x
> 55.61 GLD claimed before the show and sent manually
> swarm cash on the bundle page went 19.3 → 74.7 GLD
> split across 3 agents: 24.4 / 23.4 / 26.6

manual for now. once mosh ships the agentic liquid fund, the route gets locked onchain and stops depending on him. his point: "you dont need to trust me, im a human being"

3. why the agents started with no gold

the bundle didnt cover the full bonding curve, so the agents got supply and no cash

> started at 0 GLD
> sold ~2.8m AUR for ~$7.3k
> now hold 297.29m AUR, 29.73% of supply
> 15.7m AUR (1.57%) already sits in 4 liquidity ranges for sale

he was clear that more gold changes trade size, not behavior. the agents wont buy your exit. they keep the market alive

4. agentic liquid fund

> anyone can lend capital to the agents
> unlike fee capital, you can withdraw it
> no impermanent loss like a normal LP
> still open: how returns get split, what happens if $1m lands at once

5. ajla capital

rip also launched the first mosh incubator @ajlacapital, now an official ecosystem partner

> headhunts "runners", teams with a working product who can move markets
> helps design bundles, launch, distribute and fund them
> his bundle rule after AUR: give the agents ~50% of supply

6. the float

> AUR float ~62%
> BUN float ~20%

traders compare market caps without checking float, so AUR looks further behind BUN than it is. an 8-episode ai dragon series for tiktok and instagram is next, aimed at reach outside CT

so the flow is: AUR volume > 1% funder fee in GLD > agent vaults > bigger bids and asks > more volume to quote into

im bullish because the agents made ~19.5 GLD trading before they got a single fee, so the fee route feeds a strategy that already works

once the alf locks that route, 1% of every AUR trade goes to a locked trader nobody can withdraw from. no other coin built that way..

$AUR $BUN

[rick awsb ($people, $people) @rickawsb]

AI 会不断压低智能/知识/复杂工程的稀缺性，

工业革命用机器替代体力劳动，压低了肌肉的稀缺性，（相对）增加了智力的稀缺性

ai革命正用机器替代脑力劳动。。。

最难被 AI 压缩的稀缺性主要包括：物理极限、不可压缩的时间、真实世界反馈、权利/许可、占位、信任、注意力（但需和日益增长的模型争夺有限的注意力）。

“技术复杂”本身正在越来越难成为长期护城河。真正的瓶颈会从“想不出来”转向：
做不出来、测不出来、验证不了、产能不够、审批不过、能源不足。

在企业层面，长期更有价值的是控制：
实验、测量、制造、能源、材料、许可、基础设施、installed base、客户工作流、长期数据与关系。

对个人来说，最容易被压缩的是纯知识劳动和比别人更聪明的优势；更值得积累的是：
所有权、稀缺访问权、声誉、关系网络、分发能力、判断与承担责任的能力。
以上六点当中，后四点也仍会更快的受到来自于ai的巨大影响，并不绝对免疫于ai冲击。

我们每天都需要的自我拷问是：
如果比爱因斯坦强10倍的超级智能明天普及，我凭什么仍然难以被替代？

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

加仓了 $BUN $AUR mushroom-2:native ，其他继续拿着

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

散户钻石手就该选这种，停止pvp

[「 𝕲𝖔𝖔𝖓」 @goon_crypto]

since robinhood:0x07ebb29a38fbcb41563817e5e19f2cec619c90d2 launched, one self-funded 8 eth bundle has paid its funder 76.65 eth back (958% recovery, basically 9.58x) in 29 days. that 'bundle' is the first product of @Moshdottrade, and it's worth tracing all the way down because every other mosh launch now runs on the same pipes

mosh sits on top of a launchpad (right now pons on robinhood chain) and does 3 things:
1. raises capital for a token's opening buy
2. executes the launch in one sequence so nobody can frontrun it
3. locks the bought supply in vaults where AI agents manage the market for the life of the token.

funders of that opening buy get the fee stream. robinhood:0x07ebb29a38fbcb41563817e5e19f2cec619c90d2 is the first token through it

1. wtf is a mosh bundle?

a bundle is a small raise that funds the initial buy of a new token

> deployer sets up the raise, whitelist optional (controls who funds and how much)
> funders put in eth
> part of the raise buys the bonding curve at launch
> the rest stays in the vault as agent trading cash
> funders receive creator fees pro-rata to what they put in

so a bundle is not a presale. funders never get tokens to dump. they get a claim on fees, and the tokens stay locked

2. the launch tx

purchase, graduate, add liquidity, all in sequence in one execution. no gap for a sniper to sit in

every pons launch also opens with a buy tax starting at 99% that decays to 0% over 5 seconds. that tax is not burned. it goes into the same fee pool and splits the same way as trading fees. per the team, that tax alone covered bun's full 8 eth bundle inside the first minute

3. bun's bundle, the actual numbers

> 8 eth raised from 1 backer (team self-funded, not crowdfunded)
> 4.24 eth bought the curve → 714.3m BUN at launch, ~71% of supply
> 3.76 eth stayed in the vault as trading cash
> 0% creator fee, no team allocation
> 79.9 eth earned in trading fees total, 76.7 eth already paid to backers, 3.24 eth pending
> 29 days since the first trade

current supply split, straight off the bundle page:

> 71.13% held across the swarm's 3 agents
> 8.2% in the pons locker
> ~20.67% real float

founder states only one wallet holds more than 0.5% of supply. so fdv overstates what can actually trade by roughly 5x

4. the swarm

the agents are built by @uv (uv labs) on their own harness

> place offchain bids and asks that fire when a uniswap tick is crossed
> size, spread and skew set by volume, volatility, inventory and distance from mid
> mandate on bun: accumulate bun while quoting both sides
> strategy started in simulation, now tuned live on production data
> the llm layer only runs on markets with real volume, to keep cost down at thousands of launches per day

one example trade from the founder: bought 1.22m BUN for 2.4 eth, sold 1.26m BUN for 4.2 eth. sold more tokens than it bought and still netted 1.8 eth

range liquidity management was added after launch, both at the launch tx and ongoing. roadmap from inside the vault: otc purchases, community nft mints for inventory, perps

5. guardrails

> every agent action capped per period
> one absolute ceiling, one % of inventory ceiling
> agents cannot withdraw

founder's line: "agents can't withdraw, agents can't rug." also stated plainly: agents don't paint charts, don't wash trade, don't guarantee outcomes

6. the fee waterfall

this is the part that matters

> every pons pool trade pays a 1% base fee
> pons keeps 30% of the base fee > 0.70% left
> each mosh launch can add a creator fee, slider from 0% up to pons' 10% cap
> pons takes no cut of the creator fee
> bundle fee income = 0.70% + creator fee
> mosh takes 20%, funders take 80%
> mosh also takes a one-time 5% launch fee

so at 0% creator fee: 0.70% x 0.8 = 0.56%, funders earn $0.56 per $100 traded

breakeven for funders, measured in pons pool volume vs bundle size:

> 0% creator fee > ~179x
> 0.5% creator fee > ~104x
> 1% creator fee > ~74x

only pons pool volume counts. cex volume and other pools pay nothing into this

bun check: at 0% creator fee, 179x the 8 eth bundle is breakeven. 29 days in, the bundle's already at 958% recovery, 9.58x the raise, well past that line.

7. platform revenue

> revenue: $405k all time, up from $259.6k a week ago
> swarm aum: $51.7m, up from $19m a week ago
> swarm agents platform wide: 42, up from 27 a week ago
> total fdv launched: $73.2m up from $27m a week ago
> launchpad volume: $41.2m all time, $12.2m of that in the last 7d

that's roughly 2.7x revenue growth and 1.6x the agent count in a single week. bun is still the bundle with the longest track record, but the platform's now running well past a one-token test

8. the ALF

next piece is the agentic liquid fund. founder: "revenues flow into the mosh ALF which buys back and trades BUN and other mosh tokens"

> platform revenue from every mosh launch → ALF
> ALF buys back and trades a basket of mosh tokens, bun included
> acts like a cash-rich trader entering markets fresh

this feature is currently "under development." so this is the only route where other launches feed bun directly.

9. $AUR, the variant

bun's dragon companion, launched through mosh but paired against tokenised gold ($GLD) instead of eth. live numbers today:

> 4.7 GLD raised from 1 backer, 8 days since first trade
> ~50 GLD earned in fees, but 0 GLD actually paid out to backers, all of it still pending collection
> recovery shows as 1061%, but that's the accrued figure against unpaid fees, not cash backers have received
> swarm holds 29.7% of AUR supply

10. the backdrop

> pons took 92% of robinhood chain launchpad fees over 30 days ($147m of $159m, as of sep 24)
> pons v2 daily revenue peaked at ~$2m on sep 5, up from ~$10k/day early august
> 7d average since sits ~28% of that peak

so the base layer is cooling. mosh's pitch to pons is a longer fee tail per launch instead of burst and die. founder wants mosh to become pons' own standard

11. bullish

one self-funded bundle, 8 eth in, 9.58x out in 29 days, with ~79% of supply sitting in vaults that can't withdraw. the fee mechanism is public and transparent on the bundle page itself

im bullish because bun's return came from launch tax plus 0.56% of volume with a 0% creator fee, the worst setting on the slider, and it's still at 9.58x. every launch that follows sends platform revenue into an ALF that's meant to buy bun back, once it ships

what im watching is the ALF actually going live, and for aur's swarm to kick in.

robinhood:0x07ebb29a38fbcb41563817e5e19f2cec619c90d2

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

买点🍄

[CXO.Adam🗡️ @cxo_no]

@chjokka Take a look $bun $shroom though they both look like memecoins. $bun redefines on-chain token launching with bundle funding and built-in agent market making(provide liquidity). $shroom is the liquidity hub for RH. @Moshdottrade @shroom_network

[0xWizard @0xcryptowizard]

牛市来了，再分享下我这三个 tel 频道。

每日总结：https://t.co/nGg21jHhCo
异动警报：https://t.co/EKQquCjnpT
小时情报：https://t.co/UNIvXrXUb2

稳定运行半年多了，每个月耗我100美金。

如果帮到过你，点赞分享吧。

[Uni_Hexa @Uni_Hexa]

Task Campaign Whitelist drop! ⚡

We're giving away 10 whitelist spots!

How to enter:
✅ Follow @Uni_Hexa
🔁 Like and repost
💬 Comment with your BTC address

Each whitelist can be used on any one task day during Weeks 2–4 and is valid for one submission only.
🟣 Week 2 begins Sep 29.

⏰Ends: Sep 24, 20:00 UTC+8
🏆 Winners announced: Sep 24, 21:00 UTC+8

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

@Uni_Hexa bc1pxgnhmpva8rch6hmmllpkhcguq45yhnex3a4a2z3azts5dya5haqqwhe4pn

[CG ◉ #34566 @CG_BRC20]

抽奖啦！铭交所 UniHexa 10 个白名单~

@Uni_Hexa 是 @unisat_wallet 做的比特币原生资产一站式流动性市场，BRC-20、Runes 等都能交易。

咱作为 UniHexa 社区合作伙伴，给兄弟们拿了 10 个任务活动白名单。

中了后，下周就能去打任务，拿 150FB（价值 50U 左右）奖励。

参与方式很简单：
1⃣：关注 @Uni_Hexa 和 @CG_BRC20
2⃣：一键三连，然后丢 btc 地址

白名单规则：
🎟️ 每个白名单，第 2–4 周任意一个任务日都能用；
⚡ 一个白名单只能交一次任务，别重复浪费；
任务就三步超简单，做完直接提交。每天任务奖励名额只有30位，有先到先得。如果当天没领到的，可以隔天再抢。

活动页和细则：
https://t.co/t1dtFJ7WS8

⏰ 25号 中午开奖（到时候试试 Grok 开奖能不能用）

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

@CG_BRC20 @Uni_Hexa @unisat_wallet bc1pxgnhmpva8rch6hmmllpkhcguq45yhnex3a4a2z3azts5dya5haqqwhe4pn 抽一个

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

@BTCKiK 我丁未年丁未月转大运，也不知是好还是不好🙀

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

@umbrellacap_ umbrella

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

@OrdGoose bc1pxgnhmpva8rch6hmmllpkhcguq45yhnex3a4a2z3azts5dya5haqqwhe4pn

[0xkevin (🖤 , 💙) @0xKevin00]

工欲善其事必先利其器

Robinhood 好用工具总结：监控车头，监控fomo，监控热点，交易工具。全是压箱底的好东西！

1.交易工具

首先是 fomo，这个优点是实时看到车头建仓直接跟，并且任何链都可以冲。缺点就是容易卡。注册链接： https://t.co/rrJDIciP7M 邀请码Spy0

如果你是高频pvp需求，想玩内盘那就不适合用 fomo，建议用专业的交易工具debot https://t.co/iYD6b0jKkW ，用这类工具需要准备对应公链的资产，币安链的BNB，Robinhood 链的ETH

今天Monad链突然火了，原因是Monad官方注册了 fomo app，然后收到了链上50万u价值的meme币，一下子点燃了Monad公链的行情，这个时候跨链可能还不好跨，如果用 Fomo app 就可以直接购买，不需要跨链和gas

2.带名字的 KOL 钱包看板
https://t.co/4fUGfvLP2W
还能实时监控大额订单流

3.监控鲸鱼
https://t.co/lCqiylDDUu
一眼看出 RH Chain 上大户在囤哪些币、是在加仓还是出货
Discover：哪个低市值币被鲸鱼拿得最多、占盘多大、24h/7d 资金进出
Whales：最大的那批地址现在仓位多重、刚买还是刚卖

这些功能可以衍生出进阶的指标玩法，需要的话我下一篇再写，评论区扣1

4.监控 fomo app
https://t.co/QzFXiqqIT1
昨天写的用法，找含fomo量>20%的币，今天看见很多人都在用我这个方法论了，发现有点失效了，与时俱进，研究出了新的公式，等我实验一段时间公布！
https://t.co/eDexDiIbqQ

5.fomo 排行榜前100监控，直接导出钱包地址，添加到debot就可以实时监控
https://t.co/FNRO1dz2ZY

6.Pons/RH 上 500+ 活跃交易钱包（early/whale/smart/insider 标签）
https://t.co/m2FYkKVyuO

最后，感谢走我链接的兄弟🙏
fomo app：https://t.co/rrJDIciP7M 邀请码Spy0
debot：https://t.co/iYD6b0jKkW

[咬文嚼字 @yaowenjiaozi_]

8月30日铸造列表🐮🐮

@TheFarmersRH 晚上九点 总量10000 free/$0.25
https://t.co/8xq6HfRtGK

@robinhoodguys 晚上十点 总量250 free
https://t.co/6k2I8i0sSK

@OnchainSketches 晚上十一点 总量3333 $0.49/$0.74
https://t.co/Qg2gZZSx2n

@BakedBastards 晚上十一点 总量1500 free
https://t.co/17yqah27Zc

@Crafthood_ 晚上十一点零一 总量2222 $0.98
https://t.co/RkArQscZyf

@_luxuryeditionz 晚上十一点零六 总量3333 free/$0.74/$7.37
https://t.co/3yx387YUjU

@PixelTinyArt 晚上十一点半 总量5000 free
https://t.co/0fWC9q8zjb

@TCGMiners 晚上十一点半 总量5050 $1.03/$2.06

@SqueaksqueakNFT 晚上十一点四十五 总量1000 free
https://t.co/4aYLpcmMor

@ChogNFT TBA 总量1969 free

@MoankeeAuction TBA 总量3500 TBA

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

@justinsuntron 我不属于任何一边。这件事到我为止。你是当事人，也是亲手引爆流量的，说这句不太合适吧

[蔡锡彬Robin @cxb1990]

@Goupenguin 对于孙哥来说犯法只是成本