嵐塵雪

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@demk0814 🎉🎉🎉

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@demk0814 🎉🎉🎉

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

A New Fed. An Old Playbook.
Will the Fed Start Surprising Investors Again?

When I started trading more than 40 years ago, the Federal Reserve wasn't in the business of telegraphing every policy move weeks or months in advance. There were no dot plots. No quarterly economic projections. No press conferences after every meeting. And certainly, no endless stream of speeches designed to prepare markets for every possible policy move.

If the Fed changed policy, there was often no advance notice. You'd simply hear across the trading desk, "The Fed just lowered the Discount Rate." That was the announcement.

Over time, that changed dramatically.

The Evolution of Fed Communication
• Before February 1994 – The Fed generally did not issue immediate public announcements after FOMC meetings. Market participants often had to infer policy changes by observing the Federal Reserve's open-market operations.

• February 4, 1994 – For the first time, the FOMC publicly announced a policy decision immediately after a meeting, marking the beginning of a significant shift toward transparency.

• February 2000 – The Fed began issuing a statement after every FOMC meeting, regardless of whether rates changed.

• Early 2000s – The Fed increasingly embraced forward guidance, using communication to shape expectations about future policy.

• After the 2008 financial crisis – Forward guidance became a central policy tool, reinforced by press conferences, economic projections, and the now-famous dot plot.

The objective was understandable. Greater transparency was intended to reduce uncertainty, improve the transmission of monetary policy, and help households, businesses, and investors prepare for changes in interest rates. In some respects, it succeeded.

But like most things in markets, every benefit comes with a trade-off.

The more policymakers reveal in advance, the more that information becomes embedded in prices before the event occurs. Markets become more efficient. Surprises become less frequent. And opportunities created by mispriced expectations become harder to find.

For active investors, that's an important distinction.

Information alone has never produced exceptional returns. Insight does. Markets reward investors who recognize something the crowd hasn't yet fully appreciated. When policy is carefully choreographed months in advance, one of the market's greatest sources of investment opportunity - information gaps - begins to disappear.

That's one reason I've found the recent discussion surrounding Chairman Kevin Warsh's desire to reduce the Federal Reserve's reliance on forward guidance so interesting. Some commentators view it as a dramatic departure from modern central banking. I don't.

To me, it's simply a return to a style of policymaking that was standard for much of my career. Whether that's ultimately better for the economy is a legitimate debate.

From the perspective of an active investor, however, I have little objection to a Federal Reserve that reveals less and lets markets do more of the analytical work. Markets should respond to changing facts—not to an endless stream of forecasts about what policymakers might do months from now, which is simply a form of manipulation. Too often, those forecasts create as much confusion as clarity.

Markets function best when independent thinking is rewarded, not when everyone is handed the same script.

Will the Fed start surprising investors again? Time will tell.

But one thing hasn't changed. Markets have never paid investors for knowing what everyone else already knows. They reward those who prepare better, think independently, and recognize change before it becomes consensus. Whether it's the Federal Reserve, corporate earnings, or the next market leader, the edge has never come from following the crowd.

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@jimcramer …

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@austinsayhi 恭喜🎉

[A級投資玩家 @austinsayhi]

#長文但真誠建議閱讀
$NVDA 輝達再創歷史新高，再漲8% 股價到達165，我們就會見證人類史上第一個四萬億的公司，你手上有持股嗎？

莫名想起過去幾天遇到一些人讓我察覺到「稀缺心態」，一位是從小家境不錯但正面臨中年財務壓力，因而在生活種種面向上頹喪退縮的男子；另一位則是家境不算好，多年一直現實壓力下追逐夢想，也渴望多點錢進來，卻沒察覺自己並沒有那麼篤定相信能在財務上富有的女子。

我們常因為原生家庭與現實的磨損，累積稀缺心態而不自知，稀缺心態又容易讓人做出更疏遠財富的短視或衝動決策，股市中很多人是賠在這點，生活中錢包有破洞的人也是。

我的家庭也曾讓我累積很重很重的稀缺心態，這讓我在投資初期抱不住好股，賺不了大錢，相當折磨，後來支撐我走出來的同樣是稀缺，只是是「稀缺性」

請想像一個寧可窮死餓死也不願意賣掉身上唯一的愛馬仕包包的家道中落名媛，你覺得這是理智還是瘋狂行為？

如果是台灣人最喜歡這樣回答：「先賣掉包包，填飽肚子還可以拿其餘的錢去做生意，以後搞不好可以買更多愛馬仕包包」

乍看這是最理性決策，我卻不認可，並不會因為你多那麼一點點錢，翻身的機會就更高，想投資成功、想有錢、想翻身，你必須與眾不同，維持自身的稀缺性，保有愛馬仕同時也是保住了自己的品味與對更好生活的追求，也就是說不肯賣包包的名媛，並沒有被「稀缺心態」所擊倒，這種人比較可能得到巨大的成功。而想著賣包包求溫飽的人，乍看理性務實，實際上卻是被「稀缺心態」困住，將自己唯一的「稀缺性」資產脫手了

如果只是求生存，那麼選擇賣包包沒錯，如果是希望能賺到自己想像不到的財富，你必須跟你的包包共生死，這是得到巨大的成功必須的代價與覺悟。

追求並擁抱「稀缺性」的想法，讓我終於能走出「稀缺心態」帶來的侷限，改變的不僅是投資，還有花錢賺錢等等的金錢觀念。

深夜睡不著隨性抒發這篇，只是想說生活確實不易，被稀缺心態困住則會更辛苦。

願妳所愛 皆能滿足。

Austin

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@winwin1788 好香🥹

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@winwin1788 …銅的期貨提早賣飛🥹

應該是貿易商為了提前應對關稅衝擊造成的
而不是景氣週期繁榮驅動的

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Greatness is not a one-time event or a hit or miss affair, it's a process and a lifestyle... and greatness in all forms requires discipline. If can't be disciplined, you can't be great. It's as simple as that.

[TaichungBrunch @TaichungBrunch]

Why does everyone think KMT is now a puppet party of CCP?

Constant report via WeChat to their CCP boss.

Shame on KMT legislators for betraying the trust of Taiwanese citizens.

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@winwin1788 買回的速度也會很快🤣

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

You only need one strategy to get rich in the stock market. The sooner you commit to being great at it, the sooner it will pay you. But you will never get paid well for knowing a little about many strategies. To be great at one thing you have to sacrifice others. Now get to work.

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Here are some of the biggest mistakes I made when I was new to trading and very likely the same mistakes you will make a well. They all stem from one thing!

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@winwin1788 嘻嘻

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@winwin1788 利率環境跟經濟條件不同，過往32.5或許是絕對數字，在未來未必是絕對。
隨著美國降息預期下滑，美元指數依舊有一點走強的空間，台幣續貶的可能是還是有。
可以確定的是，台幣貶值跟市場情緒到達一個極端時，長期來看會是很好的入場點。

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@winwin1788 或許哪一天市場又會開始害怕流動性枯竭🤣

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@winwin1788 聯準會官員的嘴巴

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@winwin1788 讚讚👍

[嵐塵雪 @cyc08122]

@mengkunghsieh 鬼故事來的時間比預期還要快啊😂

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Unless there are a few issues where you at least slightly disagree with your political party, then you are not in a political party, you are in a cult