Inainte de un Bitcoin halving, ETH a făcut un high local, apoi a urmat o creștere mare către o extensie Fibonacci majoră.
Acum suntem iar acolo
Dacă istoria continuă să rimeze, Atingem 2.0 sau 2.618
Inca nu e gata! Sa nu ziceti ca nu v-am spus
#ETH#Ethereum
Today a crazy quantum story just got wilder.
On March 31, the Google Quantum AI team published a landmark result on Shor's algorithm for elliptic curve cryptography. Technically, the paper was a bombshell: a dramatic 10x improvement over the state-of-the-art. As a stunt and wakeup call to the blockchain space, those optimisations were illustrated on secp256k1, the elliptic curve underlying Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures.
But perhaps the most striking part of the paper was sociological, not technical. Instead of following standard academic process, the optimisations were kept secret, hidden behind a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof. Google's accompanying blog post mentions they "engaged with the U.S. government". The ZK proof demonstrates the existence of algorithmic improvements without leaking details. Academic censorship with ZK, a historic first!
As a co-author of the Google paper I witnessed some of the context surrounding this censorship. To be honest, multiple aspects of that context don't sit well with me. As much as I believe the general public ought to know more, I am limited in my ability to whistleblow. Though let me be clear about one thing: the Google team's professionalism has been absolutely exemplary, and they deserve nothing but praise.
Censorship has a way of backfiring. The Streisand effect, where an attempt to bury something only draws more attention to it, is exactly what's unfolding today. First, Google's key optimisation has been rediscovered by the French. And in a thrilling turn of events, a collaborative Shor-at-home challenge just launched. The initiative, available at ecdsa[.]fail, breached a new Shor world record in a matter of hours.
Let's start with the rediscovery. Just two months after Google's paper, French quantum expert André Schrottenloher cracks the main secret optimisation. His paper, titled "Optimized Point Addition Circuits for Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithms", landed on the arXiv today. Big congrats to André, who beat several other nerdsnipped experts to it. In a blog post also published today, Craig Gidney, the world expert on Shor optimisations, revealed that he'd been sitting on this very optimisation for a whole year under censorship pressure.
Interestingly, André missed a handful of minor optimisations, both from Google's original publication and from improvements found since. It's plausible there's still plenty of juice left to squeeze out of Shor, and this is exactly what the ecdsa[.]fail challenge is about. The verifier program developed for the ZK proof does double duty, automatically filtering for valid submissions. Dozens of compounding small and micro improvements are rolling in. As of the time of writing there's an 8.4% improvement to Google's circuit, as measured by the product of logical qubit count and Toffoli gate count. Nice!
The nerdsnipping ran deeper than anyone expected. Over the last few weeks it became clear it extended well beyond André and other quantum experts. Behind the scenes, a small army of amateurs quietly got to work. Inspired by Karpathy-style autoresearch, they turned AI on Shor. Ironically, the verifier program for the ZK proof makes an ideal reward function for AIs. The barrier to entry for this modern style of research is refreshingly low, with several non-experts, even a teenager, finding nice optimisations. Get in touch if you'd like to join a Telegram group with fellow autoresearchers :)
Part 2: neutral atoms and qday
The story doesn't end with Google. On the same day Google went public, a stealthy startup called Oratomic published its own Shor paper in a coordinated release. It made a splash, ultimately becoming the most upvoted paper on scirate[.]com, a website ranking arXiv papers.
Oratomic's claim was wild. By building on Google's logical optimisations and applying custom physical optimisations for neutral atoms, they claimed just 10K physical qubits were sufficient to run Shor's algorithm on secp256k1. That number is mind-bogglingly low.
Knowing essentially nothing about neutral atoms when Oratomic's paper landed, I was intrigued and decided to learn more about the tech. I fell straight down the rabbit hole and spent a couple hundred hours on the topic. I got a little obsessed and watched every YouTube video I could find and spoke to a bunch of experts.
My conclusion? The tech is real, very real. Even Google recently decided to start a neutral atom lab, a notable pivot from their sole focus on superconducting qubits. If you care about qday, i.e. the day a quantum computer will break the first piece of cryptography in production, neutral atoms demand your attention. I shared some of my learnings on Shor and neutral atoms in a 30min talk at the ZKProof cryptography conference. You can find it on YouTube by searching "zkproof neutral atom".
Here's an interesting observation about this duo of breakthrough papers: neither Google nor Oratomic say a word about what their results mean for qday. No timelines. Zero. Nada. That is especially baffling given that the whole point of whitehat quantum cryptanalysis is to inform qday estimations and help the general public make good decisions.
So let me attempt to partially fill the silence, similarly to what Scott Aaronson did in his April 29 post. Given everything I know, including scary non-public information, I now put the odds of qday by 2032 at 50%. 10% by 2030.
Anecdotally, the US government has its own date: 2035. Originating at the NSA and later adopted by NIST, it's when branches of the US government will be disallowed from using quantum-vulnerable cryptography. In plain language: with hindsight, that date is a joke and should be discounted entirely. I don't see how NIST avoids being forced to pull it forward by years.
Part 3: post-quantum cryptography
There are good reasons to sound the alarm today, but please do not panic. Rushing carelessly towards immature post-quantum cryptography is a recipe for disaster. IMO a good target date for migration is 2029, roughly 3.5 years out. 2029 happens to be the date selected by Google, Cloudflare, and the Ethereum Foundation.
These days most of my time goes to safely migrating Ethereum towards post-quantum cryptography as part of the broader lean Ethereum effort. There's a lot to do. We need to rip out and replace BLS signatures at the consensus layer, KZG commitments at the data layer, and ECDSA signatures at the execution layer.
The plan to get there is compelling, and is based on hash-based cryptography. Within the Ethereum Foundation we've developed a Swiss army knife called leanVM (github[.]com/leanEthereum/leanVM) powered by the magic of hash-based SNARKs. Thanks to truly exceptional work by Emile, Thomas, and others, its performance is derisked. Regarding security, leanVM is a jewel, a minimal zkVM crafted for end-to-end formal verification and maximum security.
Want to help? There are two $1M initiatives. First, the Proximity Prize (proximityprize[.]org). Solve a long-standing mathematical conjecture in coding theory, improve hash-based SNARKs, and go home a millionaire. Second, the Poseidon Initiative (poseidon-initiative[.]info), offers $1M for breaking Poseidon, the SNARK-friendly hash function.
➡️ UPDATE CONFLICT ORIENT
Luna ce tocmai s-a incheiat a fost presarata de fel de fel de "stiri" despre eventuale negocieri, liste de concesii sau de solicitari/revendicari, amenintari, etc. Am tot cautat sa ma leg de ceva concret intr-o posibila postare insa rand pe rand toate aceste informatii s-au dovedit a fi "gargara" sau ca sa folosesc termeni mai academici: simple instrumente de a transmite anumite mesaje inamicului sau diversiuni menite sa intarzie/ sa descurajeze actiuni ale acestuia (evident, de ambele parti). Dar se pare ca ultimele zile indica iesirea din aceasta zona "gri" (sa spunem) a declaratiilor si amenintarilor si lucrurile se indreapta catre o noua runda de actiuni militare palpabile. Concret, ce stim sigur ca s-a intamplat:
- 23-26 mai: Israel a efectuat multiple lovituri aeriene in sudul Libanului (zonele Tyre, Nabatieh, Burj Shemali si alte sate). Ministerul Sanatatii libanez a raportat zeci de morti si raniti. Hezbollah a raspuns cu drone, rachete si artilerie impotriva fortelor israeliene;
- 26-31 mai: Fortele israeliene au capturat castelul strategic Beaufort (Qal'at al-Shaqif) din sudul Libanului. Ministrul Apararii Israel Katz a anuntat ca trupele vor ramane stationate acolo ca parte a unei zone de securitate;
- 25-26 mai: SUA au efectuat lovituri asupra siturilor iraniene de lansare rachete si ambarcatiuni in stramtoare Ormuz (aproape de orasul-port Bandar Abbas). Au fost distruse cel putin doua vase rapide iraniene care incercau executau misiuni de minare a stramtorii. Acest incident a tensionat negocierile indirecte dintre SUA si Iran (care aveau loc in Qatar), dar nu le-a oprit complet la momentul respectiv. A crescut pretul petrolului si a evidentiat fragilitatea incetarii focului, mai ales pe fondul disputelor privind redeschiderea completa a stramtorii fara taxe impuse de Iran;
- 30-31 mai: SUA au lovit radare, centre de comanda si control drone, elemente de aparare aeriana in Goruk (provincia Hormozgan) si insula Qeshm. Iran a raspuns prin doborarea unei drone MQ-9 Reaper si a lansat rachete balistice (si posibil drone) asupra unei baze americane din Kuwait (zona Ali Al Salem). Desi au fost interceptate, fragmentele si schijele rezultate au cazut asupra bazei, au ranit personal american si au cauzat avarii serioase/distrugerea a inca 2 Reapere;
- 31 mai: Lovituri aeriene israeliene in Deir Zahrani (district Nabatieh) si zonele al-Abbassieh, Tyre. Hezbollah a lansat salve de rachete si drone asupra pozitiilor israeliene din nordul Israelului (inclusiv raniri de soldati);
- 31 mai / 1 iunie: Fortele israeliene au consolidat controlul asupra crestei Beaufort. Netanyahu a ordonat extinderea operatiunilor mai adanc in Liban (dincolo de raul Litani) si lovituri asupra tintelor Hezbollah din suburbia sudica a Beirutului (Dahiya). Au fost emise avertismente de evacuare;
- 1 iunie: Hezbollah a intensificat atacurile cu rachete si drone explozive asupra nordului Israelului. Sirene au sunat in zone precum Kiryat Shmona si Galileea; majoritatea interceptate, dar au fost raportate incidente cu raniti.
Iranul a suspendat imediat toate negocierile indirecte (prin intermediul Qatar si Pakistan) cu SUA dupa atacul asupra bazei din Kuwait. Decizia vine ca reactie la loviturile americane din Goruk si Qeshm, dar si la ofensiva israeliana continuata in Liban, pe care Iran o considera incalcare a incetarii focului pe toate fronturile - motivul invocat este ca orice violare a armistitiului pe un front (Liban, Gaza sau Hormuz) anuleaza intelegerea generala.
Mai mult, au declarat explicit ca „deschiderea de noi fronturi” este luata in calcul, precum si mentinerea controlului asupra Stramtorii Ormuz, inclusiv posibila inchidere completa pentru navele fara permisiune iraniana. In plus, oficiali iranieni de rang inalt (inclusiv consilieri ai Liderului Suprem si comandanti Quds Force) au reluat amenintarile cu blocarea Stramtoarei Bab el-Mandeb prin aliatii houthi din Yemen. Aceasta ar afecta ruta Red Sea-Suez, blocand circa 10-12% din comertul mondial de petrol si marfuri, similar cu situatia deja tensionata din Hormuz.
Decizia a complicat grav eforturile de pace mediate international, a dus la cresterea brusca a pretului petrolului (peste 3-5% intr-o zi) si a crescut riscul escaladarii regionale. Situatia ramane extrem de tensionata, cu Trump afirmand ca discutiile continua in ciuda anuntului iranian, in timp ce Teheranul pare hotarat sa foloseasca ambele stramtori ca parghii de presiune economica globala.
Daca situatia nu se va rezolva undeva in aceasta vara, rezervele strategice de petrol ale SUA, Europei si principalelor tari asiatice (China, Japonia, Coreea de Sud) risca sa se epuizeze aproape complet. SUA au deja folosit peste 40% din rezerva strategica nationala (SPR) in ultimele luni pentru a compensa pierderile recente, iar Europa si Asia au accelerat si ele retragerile din stocurile de urgenta. Analistii de la International Energy Agency si U.S. Energy Information Administration avertizeaza ca, fara redeschiderea completa si sigura a celor doua stramtori, stocurile critice ar putea ajunge la nivele minime istorice inca din august-septembrie, ceea ce ar declansa o criza energetica severa la nivel global (150-160 USD / baril conform ExxonMobil, JP Morgan, Bloomberg etc).
Administratia Trump este, asa cum v-am mai spus, prinsa intre ciocan si nicovala. Ciocanul (Israel) ii cere sa continue presiunea pe Iran, in timp ce nicovala (Iran) da dovada de rezilienta si mai ales control pe situatia economica globala. Daca alege decuplarea de Israel si o pace in termeni favorabili Iranului se va face de ras si va slabi enorm imaginea Americii in lume. Daca alege escaladarea si implicit antagonizarea si mai mare a Iranului, merge catre criza gloabala si dezastru la Midterms in noiembrie. Ecuatia este extrem de complicata si nu pare deloc usor de rezolvat.
Orice interactiune cu postarea (like, retweet) este apreciata enorm; contul meu este blocat definitiv de X de la ads/promote. Probabil ca singura varianta va fi deschierea altui cont nou, dar pana una-alta inca voi posta pe acesta.
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