Prometheus Kosciuszko

“You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks.” W. Churchill

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@gnoble79 Low unemployment is a contrary indicator!

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@waitmaya It’s 31.
1+2 =3, 3+4=7, 7+8=15… so 15+16=31

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@JuneGoh_Sparta Do you think they stop exporting Diesel? (Korea that is)

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@willemijn_arjen West is already at war with China-Russia-Iran.
If you are a wealthy citizen of any of these countries, or want to trade w them w/out fear of sanction by the US, you only have so many options to store wealth. Most of those options wouldn’t feel safe. Gold would feel safe to you.

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@LT3000Lyall There are no compounders FOREVER. Because of entropy. But there are co's which can predictably compound for a decade or more. They're probably not in the hot industries though!

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@HedgeQuartersHQ @Figure_robot Robot

[Andy West @HedgeQuartersHQ]

Dear Investor,

Humanoid Robotics is getting real - planned IPOs, #Tesla ( $TSLA) manufacturing plant for Optimus been green lit, @Figure_robot capitalizing itself for mass production of 100k units over next 4 yrs…Do you know how to get good exposure?

We’ve done a 65 page deep dive mapping all the players, explaining the products, breaking down the bill of materials and considering which stocks are poised to win at the early stage.
#humanoidrobotics #IPOAlert #investing
To get the report:
1. Follow me (so I can DM you)
2. Like and retweet
3. Reply here with "Robot" so I can follow you up with the link.

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@cmkusher Back in the 80’s there was an old guy who lived in Sydney who used to buy and sell stocks (BHP etc) to London fund managers at discounts/premiums. On Friday nights he’d get pissed and his wife would do the trading instead! All on land lines

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@BadfishRanch @dampedspring Brilliant!!

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@cjoye e.g. I have a listed infra-co investment in NZ which pays >7% distribution yield, but revenues rise with inflation, while costs do not.. (i.e. inflation beneficiary), yet analysts still compare it to nominal bond yields.

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@cjoye A gap in your analysis of bond yields vs equities and real-estate etc is that bond yields are nominal and many companies and real estate assets have revs linked to inflation.
X-asset relationships informed by years of low+stable inflation also seem to have infected your process.

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@Culture_Crit To me, the point of art is that it means different thing to different people based on their experiences. There is no right or wrong.
For me, now, I find it disturbing: I see women being willingly consumed by a machine.

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@crossbordercap I'd love this to be true, but it's not on the official agenda is it?

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@evernotehelps I have 2 major gripes:
1. Is there a way to use nested numbered points which look like the attached?

2. Can you please fix the pagination issue whereby lines get half cut off when you convert a note to PDF? It would also be useful if you could view the page breaks

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@DrJim_Walker @crossbordercap In the 80's they included the interest payments directly (i.e. rates - which they were cutting) in the CPI, so as rates rose, so did CPI, as rates were cut, CPI fell more than it would have under current calcs.
There's a good paper on the Cleveland Fed website on it

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@HayekAndKeynes So is wage inflation also lagging? (i.e. everyone now thinks it sounds intelligent to say "yes but wages drive everything, so inflation for longer", but when unions etc. use goods inflation as the basis for arguing big wages claims, doesn't it make sense to think wages follow?)

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@IrrationalMrkts Also (speaking from personal experience) losing money mark to market in the short term is also difficult to deal with - despite having a long term view on value

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@DonMiami3 Interesting lesson is that they still can't make money!

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@RostronE @MichaelKantro Here is the interesting thing I've learned re EPS forecasts:
1) analysts ALWAYS have earnings higher next year.
2) Fwd estimates typically decline by far less than actual EPS.
So when you calc where fwd EPS will be at the trough, it's probably higher than you think.

[Prometheus Kosciuszko @dabbuster]

@MichaelKantro Thanks mate - so many bullshit artists on TWTR.
Timing is the key.
So far (early) this reporting season is shaping up as the inflection point for earnings. A bit earlier than I feared.
Reversion to mean in margins and over-consumption seems to have started in earnest.