Wayne Kerr

🌽 🌾 🫘 🐄 🐖 manage risk dummy

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

Record crush is one thing, but US beans are still moving on the export side too. China is buying and the shipping pace backs it up. Brazil isn't squeezing us out as bad as everyone said it would. $ZS

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

Corn put in a contract low intraday on that report and still closed higher. When supply-heavy numbers can't hold a market down, that tells you something about how much bad news was already priced in. Filed that away. $ZC

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

Wheat was the friendliest number in that whole report and it's barely getting any airtime. Acres came in well under what traders expected, stocks light too. Is everyone just too locked in on corn and beans to care? $ZW

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

China's buying pace on beans has me curious. Brazil's keeping more corn at home for ethanol now, so does that push more Chinese demand our direction on soybeans, or do they just sit on their heels and wait? Anyone got a read on how that's actually playing out? $ZS

[Karen Braun @kannbwx]

🌾USDA projects U.S. farmers will harvest just 32.1 million acres of wheat in 2026.

That would be a 149-year low, the smallest harvested area since 1877.

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

Did trump’s insiders get the report numbers early?

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

Exports came in better than expected and the world apparently still needs our corn. Filed that away. $ZC

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@1beantrader Corn crop is fine, check the markets.

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@RealTackyElliot @LucasAHaag @sht1980 Margins are thin in grain production. Scaling up is the best way to increase income

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

Smallest cow herd since 1951, and corn that won’t pencil. Makes me wonder what’d happen if 10 or 15 million of the country’s worst crop acres went back to grass or forage crops. Seems like it’d help more than one problem — what am I missing?

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@dustkrei So you don’t want to deal with cows?

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@sht1980 @LucasAHaag That’s a good point

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@john223441 You’re 100% right, but that’s my point, help young ambitious producers get started. There are a ton of young farmers ready to throw the towel in, I’d be willing to bet they would change their operation to stay alive. But it’s too capital intensive and risky to do without help

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@russcript1 Why can’t that change? We need more young ranchers.

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@lrofarmer Hard to argue that

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@LucasAHaag This is a really good point, and unfortunately a sad reality. Seems like it’s happening anyway.

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@NicoAIQ That’s kind of my point, let’s send some of those checks in a different direction.

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@dustkrei Young ag producers want to deal with profits… not sure they care where they come from.

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@REGENETARIANISM We need ethanol to blend, do we not?

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@MuleSki44313302 Partially true. I would argue less risky and more subsidized, probably easier too though.

[Wayne Kerr @daddy_hedge]

@NebGradDubDub I disagree, I think we are learning that the modern diet is making beef demand more inelastic. It’s the most easily converted, nutrient dense food on the planet. Just ask @SBakerMD