Dan Muirhead

Growth advisor for organizations looking to build high growth sustainably. Mostly retweets and mini soap box moments. Sometimes nuggets of insight.

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@AmericanExpress y’all got to do something about the centurion lounge at MIA. This is always a cluster with way too many people, long wait time, etc. Just got on a 1 hour wait list? Bananas

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

Calling it now, this period will be known as the “non-cession.”

Of course that could change and of course it’s hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride, but one totally can’t call it a recession either.

They’re going to have to create a new term for this period https://t.co/NGT7ttf1Mc

[George Mack @george__mack]

The most useful razors and rules I've found:

1. Bragging Razor - If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim

If someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim

2. High Agency Razor - If unsure who to work with, pick the person that has the best chances of breaking you out of a 3rd world prison.

3. The Early-Late Razor - If it's a talking point on Reddit, you might be early. If it's a talking point on LinkedIn, you're definitely late.

4. Luck Razor - If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

I used this razor to go for drinks with a stranger rather than watch Netflix. In hindsight, it was the highest ROI decision I've ever made.

5. Buffett's Law - "The value of every business is 100% subject to government interest rates" - Warren Buffett

6. The 6-Figure Razor - If someone brags about "6 figures" -- assume it's closer to $100K than $900K.

7. Parent Rule - Break down the investments your parents made in you: Time, Love, Energy, and Money.

If they are still alive, aim to hit a positive ROI (or at least break even.)

8. Instagram Razor - When you see a photo of an influencer looking attractive on Instagram -- assume there are 99 worse variations of that photo you haven't seen.

They just picked the best one.

9. Narcissism Razor - If worried about people's opinions, remember they are too busy worrying about other people's opinions of them. 99% of the time you're an extra in someone else's movie

10. Everyday Razor - If you go from doing a task weekly to daily, you achieve 7 years of output in 1 year. If you apply a 1% compound interest each time, you achieve 54 years of output in 1 year.

11. Bezos Razor - If unsure what action to pick, let your 90-year-old self on death bed choose it.

12. Creativity Razor - If struggling to think creatively about a subject, transform it:

• Turn a thought into a written idea.
• A written idea into a drawing.
• A drawing into an equation.
• An equation into a conversation.

In the process of transforming it, you begin to spot new creative connections.

13. The Roman Empire Rule - Historians now recognize the Roman Empire fell in 476 - but it wasn't acknowledged by Roman society until many generations later.

If you wait for the media to inform you, you'll either be wrong or too late.

14. Physics Razor - If it doesn't deny the law of physics, then assume it's possible. Do not confuse society's current lack of knowledge -- with this knowledge being impossible to attain.

E.g. The smartphone seems impossible to someone from the 1800s -- but it was possible, they just had a lack of knowledge.

15. Skinner's Law - If procrastinating, you have 2 ways to solve it:

• Make the pain of inaction > Pain of action
• Make the pleasure of action > Pleasure of inaction

16. Network Razor - If you have 2 quality people that would benefit from an intro to one another, always do it.

Networks don't divide as you share them, they multiply.

17. Gell-Mann Razor - Assume every media article contains a % of false information.

Sandbox the article from your worldview until you've:

• Seen primary sources
• Spoken to 3 domain experts

18. Taleb's Surgeon - If presented with two equal candidates for a role, pick the one with the least amount of charisma.

The uncharismatic one has got there despite their lack of charisma. The charismatic one has got there with the aid of their charisma.

[Billy Oppenheimer @bpoppenheimer]

In 1998, Citibank and The Travelers Insurance Company merged.

They hired legendary designer Paula Scher to create a new logo.

In their first meeting, on a napkin, Scher drew what became the iconic Citi logo.

As Scher got up to leave the room, someone from the Citi team asked,

How can it be that it’s done in a second?

“It’s done in a second and 34 years," Scher replied. “It’s done in a second [and] every experience and everything that’s in my head.”

Takeaway 1:

As Scher has become a master of her craft, she's experienced an interesting problem.

"A lot of clients like to buy process," she explains. "they think they're not getting their money's worth [if] you solve the problem too fast."

This is known as the "Labor Perception Bias."

It's an interesting phenomenon: we are generally impatient, yet, we are skeptical if, for instance, we're at a fancy restaurant and the food comes out only minutes after we ordered.

One of famous examples of the Labor Perception Bias is the parable of the engineer and the hammer:

A factory owner hired an engineer to fix a broken-down engine. The engineer inspected the engine for one minute, took out his hammer, hammered the engine once, and then started the engine with no problem.

The engineer charged the factory owner $5000. The factory owner was shocked, protested that the engineer had worked for only one minute, and asked for an itemized bill. The engineer sent the factory owner an itemized bill:

Hammering the engine: $5
Knowing where to hammer the engine: $4,995

Takeaway 2:

On my desk, there is a notecard that says, “All success is a lagging indicator.”

The line comes from one of my favorite Ryan Holiday articles. “When a day’s writing goes well,” he writes, “it’s a lagging indicator of hours and hours spent researching and thinking… Receiving a promotion is a lagging indicator of a lot of quality work. Delivering a keynote with confidence is a lagging indicator of a lot of preparation.”

Knowing where to hammer the engine is a lagging indicator of the years and years working with hammers and on engines.

And Paula Scher’s ability to create an iconic logo in a second is a lagging indicator of 34 years spent honing her craft.

- - -

“When you sit down to create something...what you create is a culmination of everything you’ve seen and done previous to that point.” — Tinker Hatfield

Follow @bpoppenheimer for more content like this!

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@theisaacmed What do you attribute to the decline since peak? Anything in the works to create sustainable growth?

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@AlexHormozi And sleep better

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@strengthPlan @sebaspindu

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@patrickbetdavid @TuckerCarlson @valuetainment @patrickbetdavid are you also back channeling this deal? I get the publicity approach, but IDK, focus group of one, but better odds of securing with private convos too yeah?

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@fofrAI @sebaspindu

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@JamesClear Curaçao on the immediate strip to the south east of Pietermaai center.

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@weweb_io @sebaspindu

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@weweb_io @sebaspindu

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@elonmusk something changed in the algo. Your tweets are now the first 5 tweets, sequentially, in my For You feed every time I refresh. Literally every time. I mean, I like ya and all, but…

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

The breathing-like motion this one has, it got me…

[NASA Earth @NASAEarth]

2022 ended with a shiver, but the start of 2023 broke a sweat. 🥶🥵

This weather whiplash may have been caused by changes in the polar vortex, the band of strong westerly winds over the Arctic. Details: https://t.co/gnOAqDOncS

[Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600]

Another US election, another "Land doesn't vote, people do" style map showing the election results.

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@AlexHormozi @JohnIsBuilding Does this survey include big box gyms (ex: LA fitness) or only independent gyms?

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@AlexHormozi So, work, eat, sleep? No time for much else if still aiming to get 7 hours of sleep.

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

Kind of defeats the narrative around the 1%…

[Jeremy Horpedahl 🥚📉 @jmhorp]

US Households by total income, INFLATION ADJUSTED, 1967-2020, both in absolute terms and as a percent of the total

The number of rich households (> $150K) has exploded from 1.8 to 23.8 million. Very poor households (< $25K) shrunk from 24.7% to 18.1% (number rose slightly)

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

😬

[R/GA @RGA]

It's adorable that people think their replies matter

[Dan Muirhead @danielmuirhead]

@rosalia bring back those 2018 jams… please!! 🙏