Daniel Serra

I'm a geek with a beautiful family... I believe that a better world is possible, right now I'm contributing to create the mobility of the future.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.

Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:

Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD."

He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.

Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.

BUT IT DIDN'T

Those promises are now officially broken.

The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4.

Not a refund or a free upgrade...
A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla.

Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.

But that's not even the worst part.

Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety.

What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.

How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.

Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:

Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?

WRONG

Dig into the actual filing:

The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs."

They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.

GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.

Let me put that in perspective:

3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.

All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...

3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.

So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion.

The math doesn't work.

They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.

The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:

Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).

They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought.

Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year.

Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.

And here's what really kills the bull case...

The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:

Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.

That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion.

And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.

Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.

Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.

The stock is $387.

So what exactly are you paying for?

You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.

I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.

And I am telling you:

Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.

THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

[Daniel Serra @daserse]

@MerceMondelo Si

[Elisabeth Türk @ElisabethTuerk]

🌍 Join @UNECE ToS-ICP Session 📅 19-20 Nov, Palais des Nations, Geneva. Explore “AI for Net Zero & Climate-Resilient Infrastructure” with top experts and policymakers.✨ Special side event on digital circular economies! @AustriaUNGeneva

🔗 Register now! https://t.co/vXZCoWQGJy

[Francesc Mauri @mauri_francesc]

Si a les 17.30 h els sistemes d'alerta de la Confederació Hidro. del Xúquer a la Rambla de Poio, donen 1.000 m3/s (una aberració) i 2.000 m3/s a les 18.30 h (un tsunami d'aigua) pq la sala d'emergències valenciana no decreta el tancament de TOTES LES VIES DE COMUNICACIÓ?

[Cartelera Turia @CTuria]

La sede de Al Manar TV atacada esta noche en Beirut. Al Jazeera, AP en Gaza y más de 100 periodistas asesinados por Israel. De manual.

[Pla Estratègic Metropolità de Barcelona (PEMB) @pembarcelona]

It is always a pleasure to exchange ideas with @MazzucatoM . We continue to work with the mission approach to generate significant changes in metropolitan capabilities.
@estelabo

#PublicGood #UrbanPlanning

[Mariana Mazzucato @MazzucatoM]

Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer’s commitment to mission-driven government is promising but success depends on paying attention to the details of implementation. Our new report examines the fundamental shifts needed in policy design, partnerships & public sector capabilities.

Full analysis ➡️ https://t.co/NmDnoYeXqI

[EIT Urban Mobility @EITUrbanMob]

🚀 #NEW With 10M LEVs sold in Europe in 2022, a report by EIT Urban Mobility & @InnoEnergyEU now explores securing a #European battery supply chain for the LEV industry, highlighting key challenges and opportunities 🔋

Read now: https://t.co/wVFJt1PNoa

#SustainableMobility

[Daniel Serra @daserse]

@Apple first news about #carproject 2⃣0⃣1⃣4⃣
Project cancellation 2⃣0⃣2⃣4⃣
@Xiaomi first news about #carproject 2⃣0⃣2⃣1⃣
Go to production 2⃣0⃣2⃣4⃣
Where the innovation is coming from?

https://t.co/b2lxqlCekS

[Sandro Pozzi @sandro_pozzi]

Esta es la 'sangría' que dice Trump

[Vicente Guallart @vicenteguallart]

Avui s'estrena a @Filmin la pel·lícula documental "Protegim les Escoles" produïda per
@IAAC i dirigida per Jaume Cebolla. Està disponible en català, castellà i anglès. Va ser seleccionada al
@BARQ_festival. Gràcies a tots els que l'han feta possible!! https://t.co/GSbz6X5Vtp

[EIT Urban Mobility @EITUrbanMob]

🚴‍♂️💰 @WoltApp, a major delivery company & key partner of @EITUrbanMob, kicked off the Better Cities Fund - a €400k initiative driving last-mile #logistics decarbonisation by financially supporting the rental of e-bikes and mopeds.

🔗 Read more: https://t.co/FdDC8d7G8L

[kois @koiscasadevante]

500 horas anuales en el patio escolar. Estos gráficos muestran patrones de movimiento de niños y niñas de un colegio español. Los chicos ocupan el centro, las chicas los márgenes. El urbanismo y el diseño también educan. Renaturalizar, transformar y regular usos.

[Daniel Serra @daserse]

A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year: https://t.co/zzWBIMDZsn vía @ecfr

[Daniel Serra @daserse]

Terrible customer service by @Kodak I bought a Slide N Scan for Christmas and it is not working well. Two emails to European and Spanish Customer Service and no answer. Maybe old companies like @Kodak only work with smoke signals

[Booh @xavibotey]

♥️ si ets el nen que balla
🔁 si ets la nena de la dreta

[Martin Lefrancq @mmmart1]

🚗ownership rate is NOT a KPI for a 🏙️'s prosperity!

We often hear that argument in the #GoodMove debate in Brussels. But 🏙️'s like Paris, London and Singapore clearly show that there's no link. Watch this excellent video 👇 about how S'pore has handled congestion since the 70s!

[Daniel Serra @daserse]

Let's make Christmas celebration like in the 80s

[Daniel Serra @daserse]

New urban bike🚲 highway 🛣️ open in Barcelona. Amazing! The new tram line is taking shape🌳🚊

[Bani Anvari @BaniAnvari]

@BBCLookEast reported from our self-driving vehicle trial in @MiltonKeynes_MK. This is the final stop of our @LivingLAPT project funded by @EITUrbanMob, following successful trials in Prague, Brno, Helmond, Hasselt, Kongsberg, and Ricany. @uclnews @UCLEnterprise @UCLEngineering

[Daniel Serra @daserse]

Space matters 🛺🏍🛵🚲 Paris shows the way to fight against climate change.