BREAKING: 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI has crashed -6% from its intraday high and turned negative, wiping out all of today's gains.
Looks like another circuit breaker is on the way for the Koreans.
🦔Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have started demanding hedge funds put up more cash to cover their AI stock bets, according to the Financial Times. Hedge fund leverage grew at the fastest rate since Goldman started tracking it in 2016, and now that AI stocks are falling, the banks want protection. The Nasdaq 100 is down 10% from its June peak. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 25%. Long-short hedge funds had their worst single day since COVID.
My Take
Hedge funds borrow enormous sums from banks to make big bets. When those bets go wrong, the banks demand more cash or start selling the stocks. That forced selling drives prices down further, which triggers more demands for cash, which forces more selling. We watched this cycle play out in Korea over the past two weeks, with 1.2 million margin calls and 360,000 accounts wiped out. Wall Street is now in the same cycle with much bigger money involved.
Goldman disclosed that 16% of its own prime brokerage book as of June 30 was tied to AI memory chip stocks, so the banks demanding cash from hedge funds are themselves exposed to the same bet. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now make up 40% of the whole index, a higher concentration than the dot-com bubble, and most of those are AI names. If you own an index fund, you hold a piece of this. The Fed held rates today with three members who voted to hike. Meta just missed earnings and dropped 7%. CDS spreads on Big Tech debt hit records yesterday.
A lot of the pressure I've been covering for months arrived in the same week.
Hedgie🤗
There is a reason $NVDA’s 5 year credit default swaps are going parabolic. All this overreaching by #nvda to push the circular spending to biblical proportions .
Howard Lutnick is a co-founder of the Thiel-backed streaming platform Rumble, who received $775m from Brock Pierce’s Tether, privately contracted Andrew Tate to “create content” for $6m a year, and whose former general counsel, Michael Ellis, became deputy director of the CIA.