David Nadel

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@R2R_Capital That’s why fundamentals can improve while the tape still looks disconnected. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX that in sectors like photonics, the winners tend to emerge through cycles rather than isolated moves

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@piyush1337 Better approach is scaling rather than waiting for a perfect print. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX that in high-volatility photonics names like Sivers Semiconductors, entries matter less than positioning over a full cycle, especially when algos

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@sulecimnaber The nuance is that even advanced ecosystems can be conservative at the frontier layer where future revenue isn’t fully visible yet. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX that asymmetry often forms exactly in those early uncertainty zones 📈

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@NKLinhzk Optical/photonics names like Sivers Semiconductors sit in that gap between current numbers and future optionality. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX that valuation gaps often reflect time horizon mismatch more than fundamentals ⏱️

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@pprgb888 The edge usually comes from separating noise from actual adoption trends. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX that algos amplify moves, but don’t define long-term direction 📉➡️📈

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

It’s mainly just “follow the leader” algorithmic selloff in current photonics markets.

Most laser/optical related companies from $AAOI to $SIVE seem tied to $LITE performance…

Despite individual fundamentals improving. Eg. (AOI with $AMD / $NVDA discussions).

Algorithms don’t differentiate well, especially if something is higher beta than others.

But if you know something markets don’t like Sivers with more optical transceiver customers unannounced.

You can outperform in the long run.

There’s a lot of 20%-30% intraday moves nowadays, so I personally wouldn’t trade these movements.

Just going long on the Kingmakers in photonics thematically since I’m confident in exponential TAM growth.

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@talethdabm89 A lot of weak hands only focus on quarterly revenue while ignoring the partnerships and positioning. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX that institutional interest around the sector has been quietly increasing

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@Quantrarian52 honestly the amount of research and supply chain mapping here is deeper than most retail threads. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX that the market may still be underestimating how important CPO and photonics could become over the next cycle

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@AatAzerti people are still looking at short term price action while the real story is the photonics/CPO positioning over the next few years. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX that the supply chain confirmations lately have been stronger than what the market

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me.

Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share.

I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B.

And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects.

I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive.

As in the part few months we’ve discovered:

> AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in

> Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up

> $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce)

> O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE

> $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes

> New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE

> $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source)

> information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices

> information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers.

> Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators.

> new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium

> $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers

> Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source

> Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc)

> pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report

> Nasdaq listing expected soon

> MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers

> M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area

> $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report.

> $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector.

All of this market research was done before earnings.

Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done.

I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward.

Only thing I’m looking at are:

> TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments

> volume ramp expectations from existing companies

> Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts

> any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@BawzRs Sometimes it’s lack of awareness, sometimes narrative lag. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX tracking what smart money does, not just what it says, often highlights mispriced setups before they trend. 👀📊

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@FlachtFunds Calls like that usually come from understanding momentum before it becomes obvious. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX being early often looks random in hindsight, but there’s usually a framework behind it. Same idea applies to markets. 📊🧠

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@Peebz69420 When a name sits at a real supply-chain or strategic bottleneck, price can move fast once attention shifts. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX the bigger question isn’t how far it’s gone, but whether the original mispricing is fully corrected yet

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@DavieDavidZ When capital concentration meets strategic incentives, things that seem unrealistic suddenly become plausible. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX most people dismiss scenarios like this right up until positioning starts to unwind.

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@CoinCommoner The real risk isn’t volatility, it’s misreading who’s forced to act next. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX crowded shorts tend to create their own catalysts once momentum shifts. Staying disciplined matters just as much as being right. 📊⚖️

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Yeah I'm not sure all the shorts on $TE is a good idea...

When the OpenAI runway model likely has enough to buy the entire company.

That being said:

Anyone remember I predicted Faker to win worlds, and they actually did?

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@PurdyInvestor If the bottleneck persists and alternatives remain limited, repricing can take longer than most expect.Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX the mistake people make is anchoring on entry price instead of tracking whether the original reason for the move

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@chowdhuryriyad I’m watching capacity expansion, customer concentration, and policy follow-through more than short-term price action. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX once something is framed as strategically sensitive, markets often underestimate how long that

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@MaksimXBT InP substrates aren’t interchangeable, especially at high-performance specs. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX the edge comes from understanding where substitution is hard, timelines are long, and demand is inelastic

[David Nadel @david_nade79]

@nzz_07 Some names have strong engineering and local demand, but others face barriers when markets or governments shift. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel ALEABITOREDDITX asymmetric opportunities often come from structural vulnerabilities, not just growth narratives