David Vining

Husband, father, author, future emperor of Macedonia, Greece, and if I get around to it, Troy.

Corstae! Available now! Buy now!

[David Vining @davidmvining]

https://t.co/KZicIP9ipN

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @Outsidethecycle I thought that pattern stopped after 2012 and the LV became more friendly to Democrats.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@earlyvotedata @MadLibHatter I really think Cooper should be considered an underdog. The reg changes since he last won statewide are enough on their own, and then you add how badly his gov ended and that it's a fed, not state level race. Plus, NC polling sucks.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @realerikjanthes Didn't we already lose the election because of Goode and Pretti?

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @interstatejuche "I can't move to Oklahoma! There's no art scene!"

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @skidrivebike Black vote unified. Prog vote split. A recipe for domination by Ossoff, right?

RIGHT?!

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus So, they're oversampling Austin.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @amechi_nwandu Tester looked like he could actually use a gun in his ads in Montana. That's the difference.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@alexthechick

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @CatholicSmark @WomanDefiner Budget standoff. Shutdown. Trump uses his legal powers to shut down the Education Department completely to keep war funding going.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus The estimates on ratio self to forced deportations I've seen range from 3-6:1. Feels like minimum self deports is at least 4.5 million.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@alexthechick @ComradeArthur I made a whole video about it!

https://t.co/PLoebzGjo7

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @Mtmoelle @AaronBlake The polls in summer are 100% accurate because the final polls 2 years ago were 60% accurate.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @UpwardFrood Has Iraq replaced Vietnam at this point?

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @TopicsRandom2 @FaytuksNetwork That's like 3 Learing Centers in Minneapolis.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @703Kyle Vivek will, amazingly, be an upgrade.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus @educoachtx @amg227_ @MichaelWatsonDC @Ejmiller25 You can't plead the 5th on things for which you have been pardoned. Long held case law.

He just doesn't want to admit truth or open himself to perjury.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus It's my understanding from following @derzum_ that DHS and BP have been doing this for more than a year.

The NYT just noticed yesterday, so people are assuming it's new.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@SuitablePolitic I don't see how Thune gets anything done with Tillis, Cornyn, Cassidy, Murkowski, Mitch, and Ernst still in office. Tillis and Murkowski are outright against the SAVE act now, and with Mitch not really there, you need just 1 more to say No to nuke any chance of anything.

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus

[David Vining @davidmvining]

@TonerousHyus

[Matt Forney @mattforney]

This is what I mean when people are in denial that Kamala Harris will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. In the last competitive Democratic primary race (2020), the leader at this stage of the race was...Joe Biden.

2008 was the last truly fair Democratic nomination race, where the winner wasn't predetermined and the DNC wasn't trying to stack the deck in said winner's favor. Obama and Clinton were evenly matched at the outset and were in a virtual tie even after Super Tuesday. It wasn't until mid-March that Obama pulled decisively ahead.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton lead every pre-race poll, excluding some polls that included Joe Biden, who ultimately did not run. Potential challengers were discouraged from running; the only candidates aside from Clinton and Sanders who even made it to the debates were Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Martin O'Malley, the former two dropping out after the first debate and the latter dropping out after Iowa. When the race began, Clinton held a continuous lead in votes and delegates except briefly after Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire.

In 2020, Sanders briefly held a lead after Nevada with Buttigieg in second, but when Joe Biden won South Carolina in a landslide, almost every candidate withdrew and endorsed him. This was a blatant DNC op to fuck Sanders; they were waiting to see which candidate would hoover up the Big Black Vote so they could solidify support behind them. Note that the only major candidate who didn't withdraw after South Carolina was Elizabeth Warren---even though it was impossible for her to win---because her campaign was splitting the vote with Sanders.

There are several dynamics at play here:

1) The DNC did not like that the 2008 primary was a drawn-out slugfest that took away resources that were necessary for the general election and have progressively restructured the race into a coronation with extra steps. The last two contested presidential nominations saw the candidate who led in pre-primary polling win: Clinton in 2016, Biden in 2020. There is no reason to believe this will change in 2028.

2) The Democratic Party has become overwhelmingly nonwhite. Whites are the only swing bloc in American politics because they're the only group that votes on the issues as opposed to ethnic solidarity. The last election in which whites were a large enough faction in the Democratic Party to matter was 2008; Obama won by swallowing the black vote whole and clipping enough college-educated whites to pass Clinton. Clinton won in 2016 by swallowing the black vote whole and winning a majority of Latinos, while the white vote split between her and Sanders. Biden won in 2020 by swallowing the black vote whole...you get the idea.

3) Blacks (aka Kamala's allies) control the DNC. This is why they voted to keep South Carolina the first race in the primary. Latinos tried to push Nevada to the front of the line, but while Latinos still narrowly trend toward Democrats as a whole, enough of them have become independents or Republicans that they no longer have the clout to overcome the Big Black Machine.

4) The MSM wants to pretend the nomination will be a horserace because saying otherwise would tacitly admit that the Democrats are now the ANC (and because if they admitted Kamala has both a decisive lead and structural advantages, people would get bored and tune the whole thing out).

Structurally, the race favors Kamala Harris as the winner and Sandy Cortez (I refuse to call her "AOC") as the runner-up. Blacks outnumber Latinos in terms of both registered and likely voters (blacks vote religiously, Latinos have to be prodded). Latinos also do not vote for "their" candidates in African-level landslides (in Sandy Cortez's 2018 primary race, Latino neighborhoods voted for her white opponent; she won support mainly from white voters). If I were to spitball it, here's how the race will play out, in the order that the first races will be held:

South Carolina: primarily black. Kamala wins in a landslide.

Nevada: primarily Latino. Sandy Cortez wins narrowly.

New Hampshire: primarily white. Genuine toss-up, but also has the smallest delegate haul of all the early races.

New Mexico: primarily Latino. Sandy Cortez wins narrowly.

Michigan: primarily black. Kamala wins in a landslide.

Virginia: primarily black. Kamala wins in a landslide.

Super Tuesday follows Virginia, by which Kamala will have built up a decisive lead (Michigan and Virginia having the biggest delegate hauls of the early races), which will sway undecided voters on its own. Kamala wins the nomination. End of.

Do you see the problem here? There is no lane for an insurgent candidate. There's no lane for a WHITE candidate. Maybe Bootysex or Newscum win New Hampshire. Doesn't matter. They will have no momentum going into Super Tuesday after losing the subsequent races. The race schedule favors Kamala so heavily that not even Sandy Cortez will be able to overcome the Big Black Machine. Kamala is also explicitly courting the DSA voters who would ordinarily default to Sandy Cortez or a white progressive.

"But she flamed out in 2020!" Joe Biden flamed out in 1988 and 2008. Time heals all wounds.

The only challenger who could beat Kamala is someone who can pry the black vote from her in the way Obama pried it from Clinton in 2008. No one in the current field can do this; it would have to be a Jasmine Crockett-tier candidate. It won't be any white guy; Clinton won the black vote in 2016 because blacks liked her husband, Biden won it in 2020 because he was Obama's veep. Entirely possible a dark horse (heh) emerges, but unless that happens, it's Kamala's race to lose.

Eerily, what the Democrats have done is similar to what the Republicans did in 2008 and 2012, where the early races benefited centrists like McCain and Romney that nobody really liked. McCain won Florida early on and took Super Tuesday in a landslide. Romney won Florida, Michigan, and Arizona---the biggest prizes in the early 2012 calendar---and took Super Tuesday in a landslide. If the DNC didn't want Kamala or someone like her as their nominee, they wouldn't have paved the path for her last week. Kween Kamala will be koronated.