David Nash🔸

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

Here is 2003 for comparison, and a link to both on the same page. http://t.co/nzILdVKjmw @HansRosling @MaxCRoser

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@ben_j_todd @stalmico You really think it's top GiveWell charities vs economic growth policy, private sector (Wave, Wasoko) or innovation (GLP's, Starlink, solar panels)?

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@MattZeitlin I collated more up to date data here - https://t.co/OU7wLJWRbH

[Yaw @YawBoaduBenjam2]

This is part 1 of 2 on Nigeria's 2nd stint at civilian rule (1979-1983). Sadly, it was more corrupt than Nigeria's first democratic government after independence. Once oil prices collapsed in the 1980s, Nigeria entered calamity mode.
https://t.co/BOsN9PTN0l

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@oliverwkim @YawBoaduBenjam2

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@SarahTheHaider This is relatively succinct given the topic - https://t.co/22bcGCH7OD

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@michael_nielsen There are doubts about the population figures, the last DRC census was over 40 years ago, was likely flawed, and extrapolated from ever since. - https://t.co/4AEjLfzJv7

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@CraftmeatI @whyvert Where did you get the ~160/170 figure from on their website? I thought they normalised the data to match the UN figures

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@ryancbriggs @leilavclark @mattyglesias Seconding Ryan, there's a fair amount of global development work that doesn't get the same visibility. I write a newsletter covering development economics, aid, innovation, effective giving etc if that's of interest - https://t.co/uU8ZztPu6P

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@AndyMasley It was the opposite for me, so many abandoned buildings in central Lisbon and Porto

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@johnmbridge_ @albrgr It's a bit out of date but I wrote this to help people get up to speed - https://t.co/Nb5DySwjtV

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@GjMcGowan @BernoulliDefect @mattyglesias Maybe more than a new MP but I won't be surprised if they pursue more extreme policies if Reform get a majority.

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@GjMcGowan @BernoulliDefect @mattyglesias I think MPs could argue they were held back by what could get a majority in parliament. So it's not necessarily inconsistent if they join Reform and have a different mandate.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

The 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects from the UN Population Division (2024 WPP) has serious credibility problems, both in data accuracy and in projection plausibility. This matters because it undermines rational demographic discussion.

Here’s the pattern: I present recent data from national statistical institutes, and someone counters with 2024 WPP figures, either directly or via websites and AI tools that draw from it. The disconnect has become impossible to ignore.

Let me illustrate with China’s birth data from 2019 to 2025, plotted against the 2024 WPP estimates and projections.

In 2024, China’s births rose modestly by around 520,000, thanks to the Year of the Dragon, traditionally considered auspicious for childbearing. What's revealing isn’t the increase itself, but how small it was.

Then came 2025: births plummeted by 1.62 million to just 7.92 million. Even accounting for the dragon year bump, this represents a 1.1 million drop from 2023.

The scale of this decline is staggering. The 2024 WPP didn’t project China would reach this birth level until 2048. Reality has arrived 23 years ahead of the 2024 WPP.

Why the massive discrepancy? The 2024 WPP assumes China’s fertility rate, after years of nearly uninterrupted decline, would suddenly reverse course starting in 2024 (births would increase a bit later because of smaller cohort sizes of women in their fertile ages; recall the difference between fertility and birth rates).

This assumption rests on a statistical mechanism called “reversion to the mean,” built into the model for mathematical convenience rather than empirical evidence.

To be fair, China’s fertility (like global fertility) is entering uncharted territory. We’re witnessing demographic dynamics we’ve never seen before. I’m not demanding perfect projections. I can’t predict the future either.

But I am asking for intellectual honesty about these models’ limitations. The 2024 WPP doesn’t provide it.

So, when you cite the 2024 WPP to challenge demographic data, consider: you’re probably working with flawed assumptions.

For a deeper look at the WPP's implausibility, see my slides at

https://t.co/geZQFXwN8h

particularly slide 18.

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

@mattsclancy @arpitrage I think the previous declines were due to wealth/health/education. But this has recently accelerated beyond those trends, especially when you look at countries that have had a much faster change in smartphone access compared to GDP/health increases.

[Dave Jones @CleanPowerDave]

NEW RECORD: Africa imports 2GW of solar panels for the first time in a month.

And this is happening EVERYWHERE in Africa...

[VoxDev @vox_dev]

📢 International migration is one of the most powerful tools available for poverty reduction and economic development.

At our VoxDevLit launch event on January 14, @deanyang will summarise evidence on international migration.

Register➡️ https://t.co/wfwONRfCMt

[Rohit Shinde @rohitshinde121]

Everyone blames Islamic fundamentalism for Pakistan falling behind. I disagree. Many fundamentalist states are doing better.

Indians need to understand Pakistan’s economy better than that.

<link below>

[Nuño Sempere (SF 4-17/June) @NunoSempere]

My DMs are open, and if someone wants to give me and my team $10-50M to go and invest in a post-Maduro Venezuela we have already done some preliminary work.

[Julia Willemyns @jujulemons]

The Venezuela debate is bizarrely shallow. Everyone’s arguing about international law and what this means for Russia & China. Hello?? The West’s enemies don’t give a crap about international law!!!

What actually matters is will this make life better for Venezuelans? Idk ... but we shouldn't immediately be optimistic.

US-backed interventions in Latin America (Guatemala '54, Brazil '64, Chile '73, Argentina '76) didn’t produce stable, humane outcomes. They often removed, like Maduro, a Bad Guy. Just to allow another Bad Guy to rise to power.

I wonder how many people in DC are thinking about building up Venezuelan legitimacy, incentives, and state capacity.

I just really hope someone has a good plan because regime change without institutions doesn’t give you freedom, it just changes who’s holding the whip.

[David Nash🔸 @davidnash]

GiveWell excels at finding high-certainty interventions. But for donors with higher risk tolerance the landscape is far less mapped.

I've compiled 50+ funding opportunities across economic growth, health, migration, advocacy and meta-infrastructure.

https://t.co/0OaEYAkgdY