David Albrecht

Practitioner (mostly software), elder millennial, progressive capitalist. Building @dialsco

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

An entire generation (Milennial / Z) has spent their working lives in a zero-rate world. Any surprise so many ended up in PE, banking, real estate, low/no-profit startups (Uber, WeWork)?

We're "ZIRPers" -- products of our time.
Higher rates = huge shift.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@jasonfried Moving? Arizona / CA / FL / ?

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

"Your subfloor is toast" - GC
Under a sink in Homewood, IL

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@cluesdotlife Get a Life House

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@JackDan66096166 @shawngorham This is the right model. Nobody's suggesting a doctor / dentist is poor. The sale is just the cherry on top of year after year of great earnings.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

You're selling an expensive thing.
The proper baseline assumption: "it's like selling a house".
- Long process (months/years)
- Expensive (agents, diligence)
- May never close
- Fraud risk

NYSE/Nasdaq: billions transacted daily with ~0 of above issues. A modern miracle.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@jackmurphylive @fortworthchris @TakeWeightOffMD Great and needed perspective. I do believe buildings change more slowly than politics, though. I live in SF, and as much as I want to "escape" the excesses of progressives and their ideas, the built environments of Tempe, Houston, etc can't be the last word.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

Transformers (GPT, etc) are best thought of as a new computing architecture -- a new "type" of computer. Two impt points. (1) They are not procedural machines that can run spreadsheets, or add. and (2) They're going to require entirely new chips to run.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@moseskagan Think the concept of "normal" in finance is problematic. Every day is a new adventure: debt ceiling crises, sovereign defaults, QT, wars/invasions, idiots crashing planes into buildings, high inflation, etc. A never-ending human story of turning the knobs, and seeing what happens

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@torysheffer @shawngorham Trends that can't continue forever make me nervous. Perhaps irrationally so, because time scales can be long (50-100+ years).

At some point, people just say hell with this (CA), and move. When do we hit that point? Does it exist?

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@torysheffer @shawngorham Serious q (live in CA, grew up in IL): "the So Cal home appreciates at a faster pace than anything he buys here".

Does this have a limit? Or is the theory that rich will keep getting richer (a good bet) and always prefer CA real estate, driving prices to infinity?

[DHH @dhh]

The worst thing about Tesla is how they make every other car feel desperately lacking in forward momentum. Who knew 1,020hp would one day not only feel reasonable for a 5-seater sedan, but also be accessible for under $100k. Three cheers to techno optimism 🥂

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

Academia = scarcity. Never enough jobs, funding, equipment.

Good: ultra-competitive, 50 people work *really* hard to get the 1 available job. Competition -> great work.
Bad: burnout, conservatism, "publish or perish" = never do *anything* that might not work/produce results

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@moseskagan Pure (vs applied) math.
You can do that at a rigorous school, I'm hiring you in 3 seconds.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

Think of this next time some midwit drones on about "the importance of incentives".

Habits are way, way more powerful than incentives.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

Another fun people lesson from real estate: the stickiness of habits.
Late payers pay late even when there are fees. On-time payers don't ever pay the fees because they pay on time. The fees are necessary to establish the right incentives, and yet, empirically, change behavior ~0

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

Put differently: the best resume won't get you anywhere if the company isn't hiring.

Even bad people get hired when businesses need to hire a lot of people to do something, fast.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

Resumes don't hurt, but the real secret to being hired: know how to do something the business needs done RIGHT NOW and is really suffering, because they can't do it.

Sales, building the product, fixing critical bugs, hiring a ton of people, whatever.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

WWII taught veterans something very important: leadership.

Probably one of the biggest mass education events in US history. There is nothing comparable to this today and I think it really shows.

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

Guy on twitter. Half of what he says is trash and the other half is gold. Is there a solution to this?

[David Albrecht @davidralbrecht]

@StealthQE4 Amazing tweet. I'm glad guys like this (video) aren't running monetary policy.

The dual mandate is (a) price stability and (b) full employment. Not "making real estate folks rich".