An entire generation (Milennial / Z) has spent their working lives in a zero-rate world. Any surprise so many ended up in PE, banking, real estate, low/no-profit startups (Uber, WeWork)?
We're "ZIRPers" -- products of our time.
Higher rates = huge shift.
@JackDan66096166@shawngorham This is the right model. Nobody's suggesting a doctor / dentist is poor. The sale is just the cherry on top of year after year of great earnings.
You're selling an expensive thing.
The proper baseline assumption: "it's like selling a house".
- Long process (months/years)
- Expensive (agents, diligence)
- May never close
- Fraud risk
NYSE/Nasdaq: billions transacted daily with ~0 of above issues. A modern miracle.
@jackmurphylive@fortworthchris@TakeWeightOffMD Great and needed perspective. I do believe buildings change more slowly than politics, though. I live in SF, and as much as I want to "escape" the excesses of progressives and their ideas, the built environments of Tempe, Houston, etc can't be the last word.
Transformers (GPT, etc) are best thought of as a new computing architecture -- a new "type" of computer. Two impt points. (1) They are not procedural machines that can run spreadsheets, or add. and (2) They're going to require entirely new chips to run.
@moseskagan Think the concept of "normal" in finance is problematic. Every day is a new adventure: debt ceiling crises, sovereign defaults, QT, wars/invasions, idiots crashing planes into buildings, high inflation, etc. A never-ending human story of turning the knobs, and seeing what happens
@torysheffer@shawngorham Trends that can't continue forever make me nervous. Perhaps irrationally so, because time scales can be long (50-100+ years).
At some point, people just say hell with this (CA), and move. When do we hit that point? Does it exist?
@torysheffer@shawngorham Serious q (live in CA, grew up in IL): "the So Cal home appreciates at a faster pace than anything he buys here".
Does this have a limit? Or is the theory that rich will keep getting richer (a good bet) and always prefer CA real estate, driving prices to infinity?
The worst thing about Tesla is how they make every other car feel desperately lacking in forward momentum. Who knew 1,020hp would one day not only feel reasonable for a 5-seater sedan, but also be accessible for under $100k. Three cheers to techno optimism ๐ฅ
Academia = scarcity. Never enough jobs, funding, equipment.
Good: ultra-competitive, 50 people work *really* hard to get the 1 available job. Competition -> great work.
Bad: burnout, conservatism, "publish or perish" = never do *anything* that might not work/produce results
Another fun people lesson from real estate: the stickiness of habits.
Late payers pay late even when there are fees. On-time payers don't ever pay the fees because they pay on time. The fees are necessary to establish the right incentives, and yet, empirically, change behavior ~0
Put differently: the best resume won't get you anywhere if the company isn't hiring.
Even bad people get hired when businesses need to hire a lot of people to do something, fast.
Resumes don't hurt, but the real secret to being hired: know how to do something the business needs done RIGHT NOW and is really suffering, because they can't do it.
Sales, building the product, fixing critical bugs, hiring a ton of people, whatever.
WWII taught veterans something very important: leadership.
Probably one of the biggest mass education events in US history. There is nothing comparable to this today and I think it really shows.
@StealthQE4 Amazing tweet. I'm glad guys like this (video) aren't running monetary policy.
The dual mandate is (a) price stability and (b) full employment. Not "making real estate folks rich".