David Claydon

Partner and Founder, Kaya Partners. AI infrastructure, energy and growth.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@georgemagnus1 Thanks George. What must do is to organise the inter and intra-block collaboration to build competing capacity at scale, minimising the reslience and security premium for doing so and enhancing the logic of de-risking. @edwardfishman sees multi block future. I agree.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@bindureddy Please can you say 1/10th of the cost. It makes much more sense.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@DominickGDonald @BrewerEricM That’s certainly the consensus view.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@LordRickettsP Should consider that if Hormuz does reopen, Iran is un sanctioned, Russia un sanctioned and Venezuela flowing, the medium term impact (1-2y) would be strongly negative for crude. LNG sees big volumes flow in ‘28-‘29. I wouldn’t lock in to a high price view. High prices bring low.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@LBC @lewis_goodall Lewis what you should pursue is storage capacity. SoS has charge of this, yet 4 years after the Ukraine shock we have a gas storage capacity measured in days - partly reason why we suffer more price volatility. Not expanding storage, even if production low, is absolutely crazy.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@JeremyCliffe @ecfr @a_publica Super note. Thank you Jeremy. My concern is the time inconsistency. Europe (and Ukraine) are about to be squeezed into Russia deal they don’t want. Their ability to resist is practical not just rhetorical. So while i like the optimistic note, I man not sure it fits reality..

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@shashj (Bloomberg) --

The Oslo-based Iran Human Rights group said at least 648 people had died in the protests by Monday, while estimating the toll could be as high as 6,000. The group warned the “risk of mass and extrajudicial executions of protesters is extremely serious.”

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@TanDhesi @PeterStefanovi2 You mean Greenlanders

[David Claydon @dcbath]

Another excellent and thoughtful intervention from @SanderTordoir from the pugnacious team @CER_EU i have been to too many events to make the same arguments.. boggles my mind that we are still having them.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

I think Sander's letter will be remembered long after the Economist's leader is forgotten ...

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@ProSyn That’ll be because it has worked so well i would guess?

[Centre for European Reform (CER) @CER_EU]

A new @CER_EU/ @DelorsBerlin /@BertelsmannSt policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do.

Read here: https://t.co/XlfMErAXfz

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@TorstenBell You lay it out well Torsten, and if CX had laid it out similarly we might not be in this pickle today. The perception (and perception is v close to reality) is that the sequencing of OBR inputs and the production of speeches and interviews from CX don’t mesh That’s a big problem.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@andrewrawnsley Another good one Andrew, but I’ll say again the gilt market + investors must be included in analysis. A weak budget & market recoil will shape the future for PM & potential candidates This is likely to be a minimum tightening with very little growth emphasis. If so, not durable.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@andrewrawnsley Another Rawnsley classic. Thank you. If I were an advisor i would be asking what the bond market needs. Getting that wrong and seeing gilt yields rise again will be a lot more costly than displeasing a few MPs.. problem is, nobody in the discussion understands what that means.

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@fbermingham Nor have Chinese confirmed..

[Matt Clifford @matthewclifford]

The UK is a great country with an extraordinary history. Our stagnation is real, but it's fixable and worth fixing.

Enjoyed giving this talk at @lfg_uk last week and so encouraged by the optimistic responses I've had from people who are building a brilliant future for Britain 🚀

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@fbermingham Is it possible/ realistic that EU supplies from Nexperia do not recover, but Trump negotiates a return of supplies for US OEMs?

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@Brad_Setser @pstAsiatech Quite right Brad. From what I can see the Aspire 910C is where Nvidia was 4 years ago. Semi volumes also look tiny in China. US leadership looks more likely to extend than to shrink in the high value chip AI/HBM and model development ecosystem. The US would be crazy to squander..

[David Claydon @dcbath]

@SamCoatesSky @JoeCookJ Thanks Sam. It’s irrelevant where we are in G7 growth. To stabilise debt, the economy needs to grow nominally faster than our cost of debt. We are not even close. The repeated fiscal tightening of RR clearly pushes growth down. We are in the loop.. and about to do more of same..