如果這就是人生

生又何歡，死亦何懼……探索 AI 的數學本質 | 專注於線性代數矩陣運算與微積分梯度優化 | 算力隱算能力研究者 | 正在學習如何在高性價比硬體上練習大模型。

[KK.aWSB @KKaWSB]

送人送到西！兄弟们，量化交易的九个策略流派，各分享一个开源项目，学哪个用哪个，直接抄作业（合集送上）。

华尔街团队靠这些流派赚年薪百万，这些开源项目免费给你，还带教程。

Freqtrade 趋势跟踪/动量策略，最多star的开源加密交易机器人，FreqAI机器学习优化，2.5万+🌟 https://t.co/f2WFMDWIa1

Jesse 均值回归专用，零前视偏差回测引擎，JesseGPT AI辅助写策略，5千+🌟 https://t.co/sAAg3wEfX0

OctoBot 突破策略入门首选，无需写代码，TradingView信号触发，5400+🌟 https://t.co/eDAzdGvfq3

NautilusTrader 配对交易/统计套利，Rust生产级引擎，纳秒级精度，回测到实盘零代码改动 https://t.co/zxpkpo0Qvr

Qlib 因子投资全流程，一条命令跑通挖因子到回测，39.6k🌟 https://t.co/aO1QOZmydd

FinGPT 新闻情绪交易，开源金融大模型，情绪分析比GPT-4微调还准，一张3090就能跑 https://t.co/W7tpTLfqmp

FinRL 机器学习策略，用强化学习自动炒股的开山框架，NeurIPS论文出身，训练5种AI交易员打擂台 https://t.co/S2GJAuK8Yd

Hummingbot 做市专精，社区累计3400亿+交易量，跨交易所套利，1.8万+🌟 https://t.co/B6fiAkzQXY

hftbacktest 高频交易回测框架，微秒级模拟撮合引擎，3.9k🌟 https://t.co/J467FIzg4q

以前，这九种打法是对冲基金分开建团队才玩得起的东西。现在，九个开源项目，一次性拿来练手。

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

@Kunluntalk 美国牛，牛在给打下来还能给捞回来！👍

[Wimar.X @DefiWimar]

🚨 BREAKING

TRUMP JUST ANNOUNCED THE NEXT WAR, THIS TIME WITH CUBA.

ABOUT 6% OF GLOBAL MARITIME TRADE, WORTH OVER $1.5 TRILLION, WILL BE BLOCKED!

THIS COULD BE THE END FOR MARKETS...

[Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo]

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump wants a short war, to force Iran to negotiate!? But Iran rejected a ceasefire today, apparently.

The Trump administration planned a war with Iran that would last 4–5 days and weaken Iran's position in negotiations, forcing it to concede to more American demands, according to the Israeli news site Ynet.

According to one source, an American official conveyed an even more immediate proposal. Through a mediator (apparently Italy), he suggested reaching a ceasefire agreement today or tomorrow. Iran rejected the idea outright.

To the dismay of the White House, the Islamic Republic of Iran is still standing and fighting back, refusing to surrender. This has put the Trump administration in uncharted waters, unsure how to proceed, as their entire plan rested on Iran surrendering the moment Sayyed Khamenei and a few generals and politicians were assassinated.

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

下周一黄金目标价位5200，白银130……

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Gold and silver prices fall sharply as President Trump announces he is no longer imposing new 10% tariffs on the EU.

This is the most tradable and profitable market of all time.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

We will make the new 𝕏 algorithm, including all code used to determine what organic and advertising posts are recommended to users, open source in 7 days.

This will be repeated every 4 weeks, with comprehensive developer notes, to help you understand what changed.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨BREAKING: Silver prices are exploding due to a severe global supply shortage.

The physical market can no longer meet soaring demand.

Here is what is actually going on 👇

1. China is changing the rules.

Starting January 1, 2026, China will restrict silver exports.

To export silver, companies will now need government licenses.

Only large, state approved firms qualify:

- At least 80 tonnes of annual production
- Around $30 million in credit lines

This effectively blocks small and mid size exporters.

China controls roughly 60–70% of global silver supply. When China tightens exports, global supply drops immediately.

This is the same tactics China used with rare earth metals.

2. The silver market was already short supply.

Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 straight years. That means demand is higher than supply every single year.

For 2025:

- Global demand: 1.24 billion ounces
- Global supply: 1.01 billion ounces

That is a gap of 100–250 million ounces. And this gap is expected to get worse after China’s export limits.

Mining supply is not growing:

Silver mining is mostly a by product of copper and zinc mining.

New mines take 10+ years to build, Ore quality is falling, Recycling is not enough to fill the gap.

There is no quick fix here.

3. Physical silver inventories are collapsing.

This is where it gets serious.

- COMEX inventories are down 70% since 2020
- London vaults are down 40%
- Shanghai inventories are at 10-year lows

At current demand, some regions hold only 30-45 days of usable silver.

This is why physical premiums are exploding.

In Shanghai:

- Physical silver trades at $80+/oz
- COMEX prices are much lower

This price gap means buyers are paying extra just to get real silver.

4. Paper silver is completely disconnected from reality.

There is an extreme imbalance between paper silver and real silver.

The paper to physical ratio is around 356:1.

That means:

- For every 1 ounce of real silver
- There are hundreds of paper claims

If even a small percentage of buyers ask for real delivery, the system breaks.

Markets understand this. That is why price moves are becoming vertical.

5. Industrial demand keeps rising.

Silver is not just a safe haven metal.

It is critical for:

- Solar panels
- Electric vehicles
- Electronics
- Medical devices

Industrial use now makes up 50-60% of total silver demand.

There is no substitute for silver in many of these uses.

Banks and institutions are reacting to:

- Supply limits
- Physical shortages
- Paper market risk

Silver is not rallying because of fear.

It is rallying because a real supply squeeze is playing out in real time.

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

一句最狠的大实话
在融资性贸易彻底退出之前（预计至少还要2-3年），
“敢在12月20号以后重仓持有豆粕、菜粕、棕榈油多单的，要么是神，要么很快就会变成穷人。”
过去10年，所有在12月死掉的知名游资和产业大厂（包括某些年交易量上千万吨的巨头），全部死在这个时间窗口，没有例外。

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

@BitcoinZhong 按GSR和CSR推算，白银看62美金，金银套利30

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

President Donald Trump participates in a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping https://t.co/VJApyLwxcK

[rick awsb ($people, $people) @rickawsb]

《从库存循环到算力驱动》

AI 时代，智能的奇点可能意味着存储需求的奇点

一、旧时代的存储周期：资本支出驱动的“供给循环”

在存储行业，长期以来，价格波动来自产能扩张滞后的自我循环。

建一座 DRAM 或 NAND 工厂需要上百亿资金与 2–3 年的周期，厂商往往在市场最火热时扩产。

但等新产能落地，需求高峰早已过去，于是价格暴跌、库存堆积，企业亏损再砍产能——
这套“扩产—过剩—减产—复苏”的链条，就构成了存储业经典的 3-4 年周期。

这种周期是供给主导型，而非需求主导。

全球数据量与设备出货的长期需求其实相对平滑，真正引发剧烈波动的，是厂商集体的扩产冲动。

所以传统周期的核心变量是——资本支出节奏（CapEx）。

二、AI 时代：算力需求正在重塑周期逻辑

现在，AI 训练与推理成为新的存储需求核心，周期的主导力量开始转变：

1️⃣ 算力投资替代了消费季节性

HBM （高带宽存储）与 GPU 绑定，每一块 GPU 都需要多颗 HBM 堆叠。
GPU 出货量直接取决于 NVIDIA、AMD、Google、AWS 等云厂的 CapEx。

当 AI 基础设施投资加速，存储需求就出现同步上升；
当 CapEx 放缓，HBM 与 DRAM 价格会短暂回调。

这使得存储行业第一次从“消费波动”转向“资本支出节奏”。

2️⃣ 需求曲线由“季节型”变为“指数型”

AI 训练与推理的计算需求可能是持续增长的长期趋势。

算力每 12 个月几乎翻倍，带动 HBM 和高端 DRAM 需求成倍放大。

这让过去那种 3 年一次的“过剩-去库存”循环难以完全重演，周期被拉长、波动被平滑。

三、总结：存储行业的“超级周期”

传统周期是价格—产能的反身循环，
新周期是算力—带宽的投资循环。

在 AI 驱动的时代，观察 NVIDIA、Google、AWS 的 CapEx 增长率，
比看 PC 出货或 DRAM 库存更能提前判断存储拐点。

未来的 HBM 与 DDR 周期，将不再是短暂的过热与崩塌，
而是一条由算力需求支撑的上升长波——
波峰仍在起伏，但平均线加速向上。

[U.S. Pacific Fleet @USPacificFleet]

South China Sea – On October 26, 2025 at approximately 2:45 p.m. local time, a U.S. Navy MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter, assigned to the “Battle Cats” of Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron (HSM) 73 went down in the waters of the South China Sea while conducting routine operations

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

https://t.co/I7IgmBx5zH

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

https://t.co/W0T3emaKtx

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: The US government shutdown is now forecasted to last more than 40 days

This would shatter the record of 35 days in 2019

[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

彻底出圈了？彭博今早刊登了深挖 Hyperliquid 的文章，研究指出：

· Hyperliquid 当前有 24 个验证者，而以太坊有 100 多个，但接近三分之二的 HYPE 质押，却被基金会所控制，因此对社区投票有着决策影响。

· 整个团队，总部设在了新加坡，共 15 名成员，但网站却没有屏蔽美国 IP 和用户。

· 平台也并不是完全去 VC，包括 Paradigm、Pantera、Jump Trading 在内，已经是明牌的背后投资支持者。

· 理论上，Hyperliquid 足以单方面决定一切事物，例如之前的 JELLY 事件，直接跳过社区投票，发布决策。

· 平台最大的创新，是 HLP（HYPE 自带的做市商池子，用户把钱存进去，系统帮你当庄家、自动跟别人交易）。

· 但它在某些交易中，却扮演对手方角色，批评者认为这让 Hype 团队，既制定规则、又参与了交易，让人想起了 FTX。

· 虽然团队声称，其机制已达到美国商品委员会 CFTC 监管标准，但彭博暗示：它正在挑战监管体系的边界，可能成为下一轮美国监管的焦点。

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

没头脑和不高兴

[如果這就是人生 @dd200636876]

全球投资产品的下跌就是对政府的信用危机！

[Garrett @GarrettBullish]

The fund isn’t mine — it’s my clients’. We run nodes and provide in-house insights for them.