Dedafima

[Dedafima @dedafima]

“Where are $TSLA wireless chargers going to be?”

“Cybercab charging going to be slow? Why only 200mi range?”

“Wen Robovan?”

ALL that matters is getting to Unsupervised FSD. THAT’S what makes Tesla worth $2+ trillion.

All the details after that will take care of themselves!

[Dedafima @dedafima]

Many suspect FSD is finally driving new car sales because of how good it’s gotten. We just don’t know how much because of noise like temporary high gas prices.

If earnings report shows FSD subscriptions growth rate meaningfully accelerated, that is the catalyst I see driving the stock back to ATHs.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

Also, taking the temp on X, I would like to let Elon know that his biggest supporters would be much happier with $800+/share, but would be OK with $600.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

I would like $800/share but $600 is OK.

Yes, Robotaxis are close. Yes, Tesla may dwarf SpaceX’s profitability the next 5+ years.

Anyone heavy into Tesla has already decided they trust Musk with their money long term based on his track record.

No crying in the casino!

[Dedafima @dedafima]

Is there anyone going heavy into Tesla stock near $400 on the thesis that Tesla will merge with SpaceX at a premium?

A lot of people think a merger offer is imminent, but few are talking about the trade.

Upside is ~$600+/share, so 50% return (much higher on call options).

[Dedafima @dedafima]

I would like $800/share but $600 is OK.

Yes, Robotaxis are close. Yes, Tesla may dwarf SpaceX’s profitability the next 5+ years.

Anyone heavy into Tesla has already decided they trust Musk with their money long term based on his track record.

No crying in the casino!

[Dedafima @dedafima]

@nerdalert Potholes and dips as well.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

@nymbusjp They have lidar!

[Dedafima @dedafima]

“There’s nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens.”

Renting out big AI compute clusters is a smart bridge while Terafab works on building its own chip tech.

4680s took ~5 years to just *start* competing with CATL, Panasonic, etc. on battery tech and cost.

Jensen will keep supplying chips to Elon as a very high priority customer (since there’s no one better than Elon turning on Nvidia chips in the real world).

Meanwhile, xAI becomes a cash generating machine leasing capacity to other labs to help subsidize Grok’s development. Yes, Elon is helping competing AI labs, but he’s also collecting as many chips as possible (whether or not Terafab succeeds), controlling access to those chips, and buying time to eventually come out ahead.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

“There's nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens. He was building EWS all along.” - Brad Gerstner on how becoming a hyperscaler impacts SpaceX’s outlook

@altcap on @elonmusk's cloud strategy:

“It's a critically important evolution to the story.

SpaceX has this five-layer cake: launch, connectivity, compute, hyperscalers, space datacenters, and then applications and models, and then other bets.

And now we see the ace card that Elon's playing. He was building EWS all along, and so I estimate that this is going to generate, in this year, an incremental $4 to $5B of revenue on top of what analysts estimate is in the mid-20s.

That's a material amount of incremental revenue to offset the cost of the investments that he's made here, and that will subsidize, to Chamath's point, all that he's investing to build the next generation of Grok.

Remember, too, that he has three facilities, Colossus, Macro Hard, and Macro Harder. 1.2 gigawatts in Macro Hard and Macro Harder in Blackwell.

So he's given the one that's kind of less connected, H100's great for inference, to Anthropic. He's monetizing it in a big way.

It's terrific for Anthropic, and it solves what I think was the biggest question in the valuation story, which is what if he spends ahead of xAI's revenue?

It takes the pressure off xAI delivering immediate revenue. Now he becomes an immediate competitor in the hyperscalers. I don't think this is the last announcement.

And I would just say finally, everybody has talked about how we don't have enough power, how we don't have enough compute, how the revenues would not show up this year, but the chaos that is American capitalism somehow finds a way.”

[Dedafima @dedafima]

@VinceCarRants @greggertruck Lmao if Elon is able to get 10M paid FSD subscribers (basically a 10X from here), it likely means Unsupervised has been solved.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

FSD 14.3.3 is nearly perfect.

Remaining issues:

1. Awkward parking/parking lot behavior

2. Not slowing enough for speed bumps

3. Pothole avoidance

4. Reactions to some street signs

5. Reactions to hand signals from construction workers or pedestrians

[Dedafima @dedafima]

@madmanx89 Antitrust probably won’t ultimately kill the merger, but it could tie it up for years. Musk holds more concentrated power across critical industries than anyone in modern history, which makes it a unique case.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

SpaceX - Tesla merger probably has a real deadline of 2028.

A potential Dem administration would almost certainly weaponize antitrust to drag it out for years as payback on Musk.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

Wild that the valuation of $TSLA makes sense at $3T or $100B depending on if these Robotaxis are ready for prime time. No one seems to really know.

[Tsla Chan @Tslachan]

$TSLA
BREAKING: Tesla's Cybercab was first spotted with white seat interiors, with around 60 Cybercabs captured in Giga Texas.

I've been waiting a lot for this news from you! Thank you. @JoeTegtmeyer

[Dedafima @dedafima]

Funny discussion starts near 22:00 where Le finally experiences Tesla FSD and raves about not having to touch the steering wheel.

Disagree with Tu’s argument Tesla sales can’t grow in China. If FSD is approved, demand should rise. Chinese FSD copycats are clearly behind.

[China EVs & More @ChinaEVsandMore]

Welcome to the LIVE China EVs & More Episode Show! https://t.co/ogBDFNHHIw

[Dedafima @dedafima]

@samsheffer @elonmusk @imPenny2x People will sell their kidney to get a robot slave.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

Merging Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI into one ~$3T powerhouse would let Elon raise hundreds of billions for the AI arms race (GPUs, robots, datacenters, rockets, talent, etc.) with minimal dilution.

If he doesn’t build the #1 AI company in the world, it won’t be due to lack of $$$.

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would instantly create the Berkshire Hathaway of the modern century.

The capital raising and operational efficiencies if both were together are obvious.

If this were to happen, it would also bring us one step closer to having one equity instrument for all things Elon which many would want to buy.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

@RobRider16 @Yuchenj_UW Makes me think there’s still a lot of room for the stock to run. Too many people still don’t get why Tesla is such a threat to Waymo and Uber. Plenty of FOMO left.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

Even with $35K Kia’s, Tesla’s BOM for their vehicle and sensor suites would still be lower, especially with Cybercab being closer to $25K all in.

Tesla has other significant cost advantages to stack the deck. E.g. Supercharging network for lower energy costs (supplemented with MegaPacks), extensive repair/maintenance infrastructure, etc.

It’s Tesla’s race to lose. If their data advantage for real world miles is legit, then as long as they scale to many more cities and vehicles over the next 1-2 years, Waymo will be toast.

[Dedafima @dedafima]

I tend to think that it’s pretty easy to get to your first million by being cheap and productive.

After that, you are much better off paying a premium for conveniences that improve your productivity and comfort because your time is much more valuable.

Chasing cheap car deals when you’re worth tens of millions is an awful waste of time and energy.

And the issue here isn’t even about cost because a $600/month Model Y w/ FSD lease would be a drop in the ocean for him, just like the cheap Model X he bought is.

The bigger issue is he’s completely clueless about how good FSD 14 is. All he had was tunnel vision for trying to get a cheap used Tesla because the prices have fallen so much and he’s obsessed with not “losing money.”

[Dedafima @dedafima]

Dude is worth >$30M and bought a 2020 ModelX with HW3.

Rationalized it by saying the FSD in his 2019 Model 3 isn’t good either 😂

Cheap people just can’t get out of their own way.

If he just test drove a new Model Y, he could have leased it with FSD for less than $600/month.