del

Il bel far niente

[Imran Lakha | Options Insight @options_insight]

Think the vol crush is coming but don't want to bleed theta waiting? Look at a VXX put calendar.

You get downside exposure to vol, and the short front leg finances most of the wait.

Low theta, defined risk, positioned for the crush without paying through the nose to hold it.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Gold during the 1969’s and 1970’s was simultaneously the best performing asset and the most volatile. The most surprising thing about gold so far, is that it has yet to see a big drawdown. It will experience liquidation with markets. like bitcoin it will likely presage a broader market decline. It will also likely presage a rally out.

[st1ne @SolSt1ne]

Seth Klarman, founder of Baupost Group, built it from $27 million into $22 billion - and his secret weapon is doing nothing for years at a time

his book "Margin of Safety" is out of print and sells used for over $1,000

he almost never talks in public

he just did - in one of the rarest interviews of his career

75-min on how the Oracle of Boston actually thinks about risk

bookmark & watch today

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

New High Conviction Buy: $INSM

Market Cap: $22.4B
Portfolio Allocation: 5%
Current Price: $103
Average Analyst Price Target: $215

Insmed ( $INSM ) is one of those rare situations where Wall Street seems to be focused on the next quarter, while some of the smartest biotech investors are looking several years ahead. We have seen similar pattern in all our recent wining picks.

The company develops medicines for serious lung diseases with few effective treatment options. Its lead product, Brinsupri, was recently launched for patients with bronchiectasis suffering from recurrent lung infections.

Earlier this year, the stock fell nearly 50% after the initial launch failed to meet the market’s extremely high expectations. Investors had expected an explosive rollout, but early prescription growth came in slower than hoped, leading many to question whether the launch was falling apart.

So far, that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Prescription trends have continued to improve, physicians remain optimistic, and several recent reports from JPMorgan, UBS and other research firms support our view that the market became overly focused on the first few months of prescriptions while missing the much bigger story. They also believe Brinsupri still has the potential to become a multi-billion-dollar drug as physician adoption expands and reimbursement improves over time.

From a technical standpoint, the stock also appears to have found a bottom after the 50% decline, with selling pressure easing while the underlying business continues to execute.

That alone would make Insmed interesting. But the pipeline may be even more valuable.

The company’s inhaled treprostinil program for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) could become another major growth driver, with important clinical data expected in 2026. If successful, Insmed would evolve from a one-product company into a diversified rare disease leader with multiple blockbuster opportunities.

Wall Street still sees substantial upside. Average analyst price targets remain well above today’s share price, with many analysts believing the recent selloff reflects timing rather than a deterioration in the long-term opportunity.

Perhaps the most interesting signal, however, comes from who owns the stock.

This isn’t a company being accumulated by generalist momentum funds. It is owned by some of the most respected healthcare investors in the world.

RTW Investments: 7.9% of its portfolio.
Baker Bros. Advisors: 7.0%.
Stanley Druckenmiller: 6.4%.
And perhaps most impressively, Darwin Global Management, one of biotech’s premier specialist hedge funds, has made Insmed roughly 68% of its disclosed public equity portfolio.

That level of concentration is almost unheard of. Specialist biotech investors spend years building relationships with physicians, researchers and management teams. While no investor is always right, seeing multiple world-class healthcare investors independently build such meaningful positions deserves attention.

The investment case ultimately comes down to one question.

If Brinsupri continues executing as prescription trends suggest, and the PAH program delivers positive clinical data next year, today’s valuation could look surprisingly inexpensive in hindsight.

The market is pricing execution risk.

The specialists appear to believe the market is underestimating the probability of success.

That’s exactly the kind of disconnect that often creates the best long-term investment opportunities.

Brokers research attached below.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

Read my full remarks here: https://t.co/LD0oZiuMz5

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

They are clearly telling 🗣️ you what’s coming… But few are listening. 👂

Amidst all the noise, Bessent’s speech last night is BY FAR the most important thing to listen to.

🖨️ 💵 => buy strategic equites on behalf of the people

=>Short circuit Populism by making everyone own stocks ✅
=> Compete with China 🇨🇳 ✅
=> Support the 2 big 2 fail market ✅
=> Inflate away the national debt ✅

[WinningCircle @WinC300_eng]

You can watch the recording of the delightful talk by @efebulduk and @jam_croissant at our Istanbul workshop below.

Use the timeline to easily navigate through the topics covered in the video👇🏻

00:17 – Five Key Pressure Factors Shaping the U.S. Economy
02:50 – The US–China Conflict
04:32 – The Only Way Out: QE, Bonds And Strategic Equities
05:17 – Sovereign Wealth Fund of the U.S.
05:59 – Is China's Model Winning?
06:34 – After Trump: Risks And Structural Change
09:11 – Buying Equities On Behalf Of The People
14:09 – The Intel Example: Taxing The Rich "Softly"
15:36 – AI, Populism And Universal Basic Income
16:48 – SpaceX, Space Travel And The "World Citizen"
17:55 – Will the US Government Invest In SpaceX
22:57 – Protecting The Dollar: Panama, Greenland, Iran...
23:52 – Practical Question: How To Build A Portfolio
28:30 – Why Options Will "Eat" The Market
33:52 – Is Bitcoin Dead?

[Convex Value @ConvexValue]

Changing the way you see things lets you see different things! 😉

prompt:
> Give me a chart with volume/OI on the y-axis, and absolute delta on the X axis.
> Display the top 50 options by volume/oi on the chart (let me also choose top 100/250/500)
> Exclude index and top-ETF options by default - give me a toggle to include.
> Give me inputs to filter by max/min volume and OI.

cvforge brings it to life 🫡

Found this:
$WBI strike 40 call for june 18 with 0.05 delta, OI of 1, and volume of 5.5k 🤯

This is options analytics with superpowers.

And its free! 👇

[Mike @MarketMike]

Those red candles on the $SPX are highlighting the times the CBOE Dispersion Index closed above 40.4.

[Convex Value @ConvexValue]

You can use cvforge to transform a hypothesis into an actual trade. This used to take me hours. Now its a prompt away. Like this:

prompt:
> $ORCL just crashed. I think it wont fall any more and it will instead hover above 200 by EOY.
> If it does crash more, I dont want to be exposed. I also dont think it will go past 250.
> Find me the best trade that to express this.

Then cvforge goes on to scan the options chain to find me the best structure.

In this case it was a January call butterfly:

Max Loss: $2.43
Mac Profit: $27.58 with spot at 220

It also showed me alternatives and it allows me to compare it with a 190/230 call spread.

[SpotGamma @spotgamma]

There were two huge waves of negative deltas in single stocks today. The first was at the days highs 9:50AM then another at ~10:45.

$AAPL is the biggest chunk of this, but overall it reads like algorithmic positioning changes and not some rapid 0DTE chase.

Large, and odd.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

@NashRate Q2 2027

[tailrisked @tailrisked]

1 month later:

*NOVO TO BUY WAVE LIFE SCIENCES FOR 5BN

$WVE

[Imran Lakha | Options Insight @options_insight]

How to get into high vol names where the rally has already started...

Sell a put at a price you'd take delivery. Buy a call spread with the premium.

If it rips, you participate. If it dumps, you take the shares.

Only run this in a size you'd want to own.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

@AlgoSnafu @shortgs2019 @sajidnizami I look at fixed strike Vol as well, but a lil secret most people don’t know. straddles are much more $ sticky then Vol sticky. IOW, the curve tends to shift in $ more then theo theta... theo constructs often distort what’s actually most intuitive & important o profit, which is $

[ConvexityMaven @ConvexityMaven]

Time for the infamous 2 1/2 day rule....??

I abhor market timing, but it is my experience that when $hit happens, the market peaks and reverses 2.5 days after ignition.

Day 1 is shock
Day 2 is panic, prayer and a call from Risk
Mid-Day 3, capitulation and the position is closed out

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

@occupyeccles He usually hits deep in the asian session or within the first hour or so in the regular hours.

[Jared @jaredhstocks]

@Ksidiii Now let's see if they show up tomorrow AM. Always Tuesday mornings after typically a gap up but we'll see.

[The Options Insider @Options]

Ever wonder what times of day are the hot spots for 0DTE options trading? Here's the answer...

[SpotGamma @spotgamma]

guess what time the collar rolled just by looking at this chart