deterrence

6th year of predictive signal hunting after 13 yrs of pro poker 10m+ online cash game hands and 10k+ hours in casino/private games

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

from the 11th of 13 years playing poker full time late 2018

[Miko @Mho_23]

this audio is 100% AI...

humanity will remember this day

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@TylerP_Poker Might be because he's insufferable

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@Polymarket @grok link to the source interview or video if possible

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

best one yet

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

Hedge Fund Manager David Orr (@orrdavid) on why he’ll back a delivery guy over a Harvard grad, as long as the track record is real.

David Orr runs Militia Capital, a ~$480M hedge fund. ~50% annualized, Sharpe 2.

“If you didn’t go to Harvard, they’re not going to give you money. They’re gonna lead you on for years.”

We cover:
- Edge is just reps. He's placed a few hundred independent bets every year since 2019, more in one year than a lot of hedge fund managers get in a decade.
- The two-hour rule: if he can't decide on a stock in an hour or two, he skips it. When a trade goes against him, he quits. "The market said I'm wrong, I'm wrong."
- 500 positions in his partition and zero notes. Some of his best shorts are down 40% and he's forgotten what the company does.
- The Gogo lesson: he spent 100 hours on a short and was right on the fundamentals (it's now $2), but it ripped to $20 first. All that research made him stubborn on the way up.
- The AI risk system: it groups the book into custom baskets like "Banks Done Right" and "yield traps," recalculated daily. A 25% bet can quietly become 45% in two weeks.
- How Militia recruits PMs: 95% of track records are junk, and one cherry-picker ran 30 accounts and sent the best one. The PMs who make it include a game show winner, a Spanish government worker and a programmer, with 0.15 cross-correlation.
- The best short seller in the world, quietly: 40% a year short only for years, and he still gets a tiny allocation at his fund.
- Why multi-managers' real business is marketing. Collect $2B a year in fees on $100B and it's "mission accomplished," whatever the returns.
- The long/short tax trick: harvest losses on losing shorts, and never cover one that's down 90%. No tax is due until it's delisted, which can take 10 years.
- $150M raised from one email asking LPs for $100M. He says he could raise a billion but won't, and admits they "must have gotten at least somewhat lucky."
- His AI stock map: hyperscalers locked customers into take-or-pay deals at ~35% return on capital. If compute prices crash 80%, the end customers get wiped out, not the hyperscalers.
- Is investing 99% talent? For big alpha, almost entirely. Pod shop alpha is teachable, maybe for 1 in 50 people rather than 1 in 10,000.

Highlights:
00:00 Intro
00:44 How AI custom factor baskets track dynamic correlation in levered portfolios
03:24 Sourcing non-consensus PM talent and verifying live Sharpe track records
07:24 Structuring carry and tax deferral to attract elite proprietary traders
12:50 Why institutional multi-manager platforms fail to back pure alpha
20:22 The two-hour research limit: Avoiding sunk-cost bias in short selling
27:58 Momentum screening vs deep value: Why top longs hit new highs
29:40 Why traditional finance books fail and what operator biographies teach
37:16 Why rapid technological adaptation beats traditional economic moats
39:26 Analyzing the AI trade: Why hyperscalers offer superior downside protection
44:57 Internalizing stock borrow desks to maximize net-of-fee fund compounding
55:25 Avoiding confirmation bias and why shorting revenue growth fails
01:01:42 Pod shop leverage factories vs raw discretionary alpha generation
01:07:12 Unplugging from market narrative feeds to preserve independent conviction

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@internpierre @biggmichaelmike What do you think this example proves? He curates his timeline and you were considered counterproductive

There's more than enough along the range of perspectives to not need all the noise all the time

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@GoshawkTrades This is the opposite of unusual in MMF world tho

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@trashpandaemoji @scaling01 Absolute cuck response

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@orrdavid Best one yet 💪

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@amritwt memorize goodry

[AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ @AISafetyMemes]

This is the most serious 48 hours in cybersecurity history.

"Black October" they're calling it

It seems every *hour* there's a new incident, that in a typical year, would be one of the biggest incidents of the *entire year*

SUMMARY OF THE LAST 48 HOURS:

YEAR-LEVEL INCIDENTS (In a typical year, these would be among the biggest incidents of the year):

1. PHP2Shell: a hole in the software behind ~70% of websites. Governments took sites offline.
2. eMudhra: the master keys that prove websites are real were cracked. One was the number 4.
3. California: data on every public school student since 2023 stolen, including disability status
4. Railway: hackers stole customers' secret keys from a hosting platform used by millions of developers
5. Zeabur: 321,810 accounts breached. The company is shutting down.
6. LiteLLM: an AI tool downloaded 3.4 million times a day was poisoned with a password stealer
7. GitLab: a 10-out-of-10 severity hole in every version since 2014
8. Cairn: criminals used an AI hacking tool to break into 100+ companies
9. Ahold Delhaize: hackers knocked the owner of Food Lion and Stop & Shop offline
10. Onamae: malware planted on up to 26,739 customer servers in Japan

MONTH-LEVEL INCIDENTS (In a typical month, these would be among the biggest incidents):

11. Signal: a bug could leave your mic and camera on after you hang up
12. NGINX: 3 critical holes in software running ~1/3 of websites
13. HTTP/3: a single connection can crash 7 of the 10 web server types tested
14. Plex: hackers breaking into home media servers
15. SafePay ransomware: FBI warns it has hit 600+ critical infrastructure organizations
16. Palo Alto: ransomware gangs breaking in through company firewalls
17. Bullhorn: platform used by 10,000+ companies knocked offline
18. Medi-Cal: 970,000 patients' data stolen
19. WordPress: hackers stole a plugin maker's keys and used them to plant backdoors on websites
20. AOMEI: backup software's update server handed out a backdoor
21. Meta Muse: Meta's AI agent exposed users' personal and business secrets
22. Tor: 333 relays hijacked to steal logins
23. TiDB Cloud: database company's cloud breached

Also serious:

24. State Bank of India: India's biggest bank confirms a data breach
25. OVHcloud: hackers slipped a password stealer into a cloud company's official tool
26. Siemens: a software hole being used to spread malware
27. North Korea: state hackers launch a new attack campaign on South Korea

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@MailOrdrhusband congrats on it not being a hot girl

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@valuedrift @ArgonathCapital Each PM will have their own

How did he figure out his to get lots of small shorts on?

[Value Drift @valuedrift]

Just bought some $ORR calls. I think market makers are not pricing in the ETF is now structurally improved. They found a way to have lots of small short positions. At launch David said they wouldn't have full edge until that was available, and now it is.

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@SmallCapSmarts

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@kyronis_talks No there is a reason

Every one of the biggest companies has to bet their life in this because if they don't they'll never recover

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

mag7 is 1/3 of S&P500

and 70% of @nvidia rev comes from only 5 companies

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@Kinfo @PaceHan2 mow!

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@frothyassets @orrdavid 😂😂😂

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

@ALEXEIMARTOV Legend 💪

[deterrence @deterrence2020]

the one main event I played trex313 had the jesus seat on me

told me him and his brother were making 2k/hr playing exactly these pre UIGEA party games

[𝘾𝘼𝙍𝙇 @Salle7De]

I’m so fucking old in poker terms that I actually played on this client.