Bull market ends when stocks stop going up on good news…
Bear market ends when stocks stop going down on Bad news.
This is the reason that you should act contrary to the advice given on magazine covers.
Elon Musk just said the one thing about America they made sure you’d never learn.
The one thing that should’ve made you proud, not ashamed.
Musk: “After World War 2, the US could have basically taken over the world and any country. Like we got nukes, nobody else got nukes. We don’t even have to lose soldiers. Which country do you want?”
One nation held a weapon no civilization had ever possessed.
Total monopoly on destruction. No rival. No consequence. No limit.
Every empire in history that held that kind of power did the only thing empires know how to do.
They took until there was nothing left to take.
America had a greater advantage than all of them combined.
And rebuilt the nations it just defeated.
Musk: “The United States actually helped rebuild countries. So it helped rebuild Europe, it helped rebuild Japan. This is very unusual behavior, almost unprecedented.”
Not almost unprecedented.
It had never happened. Not once in 5,000 years of recorded civilization.
The nation with the power to take everything chose to rebuild instead.
Enemies became allies. Rubble became economies. Surrender became partnership.
Germany went from ashes to the economic engine of Europe in a single generation.
Japan went from unconditional surrender to the third largest economy on earth.
Three years after the war, America was flying food into Berlin.
Into the capital of the country that just tried to end the free world.
That decision reshaped every economy, every alliance, and every trade route on the planet.
Billions of people lifted out of poverty over the next half century trace back to one moment. One nation choosing restraint over domination.
No other country in history can make that claim. Not one.
Musk: “There’s always like, well America’s done bad things. Well of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record.”
Every nation on earth has blood in its history.
But the measure of a nation was never its worst chapter.
It’s what it does when nobody can stop it.
When nobody could stop America, it fed its enemies and rebuilt their cities.
You’re being told every day that this country is something to be ashamed of.
By people who have no idea what the world looks like without it.
Every free market. Every open border for trade. Every democracy that took root outside Europe stands in the shadow of that single decision.
The values that built this country didn’t just shape America.
They shaped the modern world.
AI is about to hand a small number of people a power advantage that makes nuclear monopoly look primitive.
1945 was the first test.
AI is the last.
That power is going to exist. The only question left is who holds it.
The most powerful thing America ever did wasn’t building the bomb.
It was having the power to take everything and choosing not to.
The people trying hardest to tear that story down have never built a single thing worth defending.
I did not chase money when I decided to build myself up.
I quit my job, stopped going to parties and eliminated anything that distracted me.
I spend the whole of 2018 and 2019 in learning about business and the stock market.
I made no money but I did not care. I was finally giving myself a chance to be good at something I love.
I have one life and I wasn’t going to waste it following orders from a boss. Fuck that shit.
The whole purpose of opening the Milkshake store was to learn a business by doing it.
I lost a lot of money during that phase running that store and in the stock market.
I admit there were a few dark days but I was okay. I knew that god was testing me to see if I was really built for business and hardship.
I did not care about the opinions of my family because they would not get me. I did not even try to convince them.
People would often tell me that I made a huge mistake quitting a job at Deloitte and not appearing for the Level-III examination of CFA.
I would laugh at them and not say anything.
All the negativity did not affect me because I was free in my mind to wake up and work on my shit everyday.
I was building myself up and I could see progress. It was a wow feeling.
I started to enjoy freedom and made it a point to never go back to corporate misery even if I fail.
I was so addicted to freedom that I told myself that I am willing to fail a thousand times because I had the freedom to fail.
I worked for 15-17 hours everyday for months without the sight of money.
Hard work has become my second nature ever since that time. Now it just feels weird not working for at least 10-12 hours in a day.
Today I am drowning in money. I can go anywhere I want and I can eat anything I want.
I got this life because I stopped chasing money. I chased my love and my love is giving me everything.
It is like magic that all I have to do is give my 100% everyday to my community and every good thing is popping up around me.
Don’t listen to anybody who is telling you to settle and take a job. They are just projecting their fears and insecurity on you.
If you have a passion towards something and that work can make the world a better place, GO ALL IN!
Forget the money and the status. Build value.
Grind everyday.
It takes time but you will soon find your dream life.
Never chase money.
Chase excellence.
Money will chase you for life.
Okay this probably means a lot of people might reconsider using Sensibull or other investment apps, but here goes:
I am noticing a large number of my friends, classmates, acquaintances, and many fellow uncles in many midlife uncle groups make a second career/ hobby out of managing their portfolio. And I think that is a very bad trend. And here is why:
1. Riches are not made by investing. It is preserved by investing. Riches are made from your salary, bonus, ESOP, or business income. (oh and your grandfather's 60 acre farmland)
2. Your stock market portfolio will not comfortably hands down beat inflation. Your business incomes/ salary/ skills might
3. Focusing on market might divert your attention and focus from what actually makes you money - career/ business
4. There are other hobbies - Like photographing wild animals that have been photographed a million times, long drives in which you are trying to get our of city for 4 hours and then doing highway for 1 hour to post a pic of your BMW that no one cares about, playing guitar horribly to the point your wife buys noise cancelling headphones. None of them are harmful. They all can be done in your time on a weekend. But trading/ investing is not a hobby - You do not decide when you have time for it. Market decides when it has time for you.
5. All the above hobbies are relaxing and peaceful - okay may be not driving in India. But you get my drift. Drift. Geddit? :) But then trading / portfolio is a high stress activity. Hobbies are for relaxation
I can go on and on. But TL;DR
Put your money in some mixture of index funds. And focus on your job or business. And family. And living in the now. And beware of people who tell you that you need to focus on your portfolio and spend time on watching markets. They all have a portfolio management service to sell by warning you that you need 100 crores before you turn 100 so that your douchebag son can go to Harvard. If you have 100 crores, chances are that he won't
We all know that we should buy when the market is at its lows and think of booking profits at the high
But the Equity mutual fund flows over 20+ years show the exact opposite! 🙃
While inflows have increased structurally over the last 20 years, the behavioural relationship has remained consistent over two decades: strong market performance is followed by stronger inflows. Similarly market falls are followed by much lowered inflows.
Every major market cycle: 2008 GFC, 2009 recovery, 2014 rally, COVID crash, and 2021–24 bull market and the recent market declines shows that during bull markets, investors increased allocations only after sustained market gains, while during bear markets, inflows weakened only after markets had already corrected.
Nor is this behaviour peculiar to Mutual funds or equity markets. Inflows into Gold funds peaked in January - exceeding even those into equity funds. As gold prices fell, predictably, now the gold investors have begun to head out.
I am reminded of fund managers who were advising you to sell 'unproductive' gold and put it in equities in 2024 and were promoting gold fund end of 2025
Coming to the second part of so called experts analysing market movements.
I recently came across a preposterous suggestion, masquerading as analysis, saying that foreign portfolio investors have got an exit due to Indian mutual fund inflows and the way to stop it is to curb Indian retail money flowing into equity markets via Mutual Funds 🤦
Never mind that all data shows that inflows and outflows into Mutual funds lag and not lead market movements.
The inflows after market peaks have never prevented the markets from crashing. On the other hand, even as inflows reduce drastically after market crashes it does not prevent the market from rising.
Then there is the chasing of Foreign Portfolio Investments without any understanding of their impact on the market
Data free opinions abound!
My column in Mint today
@livemint
Want advice that is based on data, not fairy tales? Send a DM to @firstglobalsec@fghumsmallcase@PenguinIndia
India needs a “Walk After Meals” revolution.
If millions of people make a 15-minute walk after every meal a daily habit, we could make a meaningful impact on obesity, diabetes and overall metabolic health.
Saw some video of a Mumbai beach covered in trash. The trash is coming from the sea during high tide. Not because people are dumping trash on the beach as many think.
This trash is being dumped into the sea by rivers and canals especially during the monsoon. This issue is a world wide issue. Beaches from LA to SG have the same issue during storms and rainy season.
The solution is in installing river and canal runoff nets (storm water netting system) as done by some countries. And ensuring the rivers and canals aren't used as a dump.
Below images:
1) California beach with trash
2) Singapore beach with trash
3) Storm water netting system
4) River netting system to catch trash
The point is, this trashy beaches are a problem world over after storms, rains or during the rainy seasons. Some of the anti-India propaganda machinary is already taking pics from Mumbai and making it "Only in India it is like this. India is a sh1t hole."
My post is not to justify such unclean beaches or the trash. But to let Indians know this is a world wide problem and there are some solutions that are being tried by some countries.
USAID spent 21m dollars to "elect someone else" in India by "increasing voter turnout." We all know what this means and what was tried in 2024.
Trump is talking about the GLISCO-DS which USAID had been made a part of. The same DS that removed him in 2020.
Egypt forgot how to build the pyramids.
Rome forgot how to build the aqueducts. Some still carry water today. What they built still stands. Neither civilization remembers how they did it.
Musk: “You look at great civilizations like ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that.”
Musk: “And the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. They forgot how to do it.”
No army invaded them. The knowledge just stopped getting used, and the moment it did, it was gone.
Same collapse. Compressed into fifty years instead of a thousand.
Musk: “In 1969, we were able to send somebody to the moon… Then the space shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit.”
Musk: “People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves… it will, by itself, degrade.”
Capability doesn’t sit in a vault. It only exists inside the people doing the work right now.
The second they stop, it doesn’t pause.
It disappears.
That should not scare you. It should focus you.
Nobody loses a civilization to war. They lose it the moment they stop building.
Nobody is owed the future. It belongs to whoever keeps building it.
Most people think you need a gym to sharpen your boxing.
Using a door frame to build timing, accuracy, defensive awareness, and proper punch alignment is pure technical work.👑🥊🐐
I spent a decade studying millionaires before I became one.
The wealth wasn't the lesson. The habits were.
These 12 changed my life (steal them, bookmark it):
My favorite line from Atomic Habits has been living in my head rent-free:
“It doesn’t make sense to continue wanting something if you’re not willing to do what it takes to get it. If you don’t want to live the lifestyle, then release yourself from the desire. To crave the result but not the process is to guarantee disappointment.”