bafoon13

Retired from quant trading (2013-2021 energy futures). P2P gambling. Chess and poker fan. Love/hate relationship w Kelly criterion. DK bafoon13 MAYC 9149

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@TheKardiac_Kid @BenAxelrod Are you KardiacKid on Splash? Plz DM if you are

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@haralabob @step_size @cappin_jackson 1. Liq dries up as you decrease tick size 2. Easier to justify larger fees with a larger tick size. Scalping 1c is already a scratch unless you have reduced fees 3. More parasitic HFT flow with small tick size, makes risk holding MM's quote less. All that said, I agree .5c>1c

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@Dongs2n @TheDoc5 @splashsports lolololol the fuck are you talking about? Splash is 100% a regulated legal site

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@PoolCrunch @CircaSports What’s the EV if the no pick 💀

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@LastMenPod 2024 was 2 end of game missed field goals away from being down to 8 people left iirc. I think it was KC and DET that very narrowly won games they had no business winning.

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@PeteTarz @LastMenPod @CircaSports @JeffreyBenson12 @Flupnolide @SamSoverel @galenhall @SurvivorSweat @SurvivorAtlas Love the double tagging of flup. Def the guy most likely to miss it the first time

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@PredMTrader moving to Cary at the end of the month. #1 place in the country to raise children

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@Dan__Zack @gfienberg17 lol it’s never these morbid things people assume. it was probably just some rich fuck forgot to put in his pick from his yacht in Monaco. Was one of the Polymarket last minute registers, might even be a syndicate that forgot to log into that account

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@cmain7 Pretty sure that’s a bison, not a buffalo

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@RWM21 @MeltzVegas This wasn’t a huge deal for a 15-20 year period following the financial crisis bc rates were near 0 and this discounted cash flows were minimal. With the 10 year yield sitting at 5.25%, you lose half the money just from the dcf.

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@audavidb The last time they lost a President’s Cup was in the 1900s, they’ve clearly outperformed expectations in the event historically.

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@goldenpants013 Nothing beats Caesars where half the bets are only available on desktop

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@SurvivorAtlas The number of no-picks aren't what's important. You need to multiply each no-pick by the EV of that pick to find out real no-pick damage. The 2024 no-pick in-between Thanksgiving and Christmas was worth 100x more than a no-pick week 1

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@MikeMcDonald89 Interesting. I play exclusively bullet online (2150 lichess) but classical tournaments growing up (1850 uscf). I also play Nadjorf and would’ve played a6 against f3. Growing up I had 100-150 lines memorized in Nadjorf but not a single 5. f3 line iirc. Prepared players suck

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@MikeMcDonald89 Great write up. Interesting you feel Cayman completion doesn’t punish your mistakes enough. Would’ve thought nearly all practice comes from online where there’s pools of players many levels far above yours to challenge you. Maybe tougher to find classical games online though. gl

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@DoctorRazzWSOP @riskmaxxing @Kalshi You’d be way better hedged with a perp than the contract you describe. You get fucked if a sandwich settles at $45 in your example.

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@mikedaviswins @splashsports @Tonysmarkettips

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@capjack2000 lol

When did I ever claim to trade sports? Survivor is a fun retirement project after a decade providing liquidity in markets that actually have an impact on the world.

All I’m saying is that if I sold shovels during the gold mine I wouldn’t larp as a prospector on the side.

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

If only they had made it $100 mm guarantee I'm sure it would've filled then. @capjack2000 wins the most delusional take of the year in survivor space. Couldn't agree to terms for his 5/1 bet that of overlay but I would've won without even accounting for rake reductions given

[Captain Jack Andrews @capjack2000]

Sorry, but a nationwide Survivor contest with the advertising scope of Polymarket and Splash should have a guarantee of $100m.

$21m is laughable. That just ensures it’ll reach the full 22,700 entries and have a 7.5% vig.

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@capjack2000 FWIW, Splash did allow it to overlay and I commend them for that. They did give a lot of money in rake reduction which is also commendable, and they clearly lost money on this tournament despite it being an incredible achievement overall.

[bafoon13 @DfsSchoder]

@capjack2000 Clearly said that marketing spend not being included.

Sticking point's "$21 mm is laughable" and that it "ensures it'll have a 7.5% vig" was way off.

Part of being a good trader is folding. Not admitting to the L speaks volumes to your ability to manage risk professionally imo