Diamond Rapids

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

我是2016年就开始关注川普这个美国凯撒式的人物，这让我对Trump和Hillary的中东战略已经了解得不能再了解。

另一方面就是2020年大选输的时候，川普的反应大的出乎我意料。他败选后几个月都处于一种精神濒临崩溃的状态，并且不停地提及中东，亚伯拉罕条约，以及伊朗。下台后更是出了蓬培奥的回忆录和左派给他编的各种回忆录，可以最终得出结论伊朗才是川普政治生涯里的头号大敌。

有人会问：不是东大吗？我认为不然。触发对华为制裁的直接原因就是在全面禁运期间协助了伊朗安装后门。华为只是因为被迫完成主人的任务而拉了仇恨，其实抓孟的原因也是伊朗。透过这些回忆录的叙事滤镜，看到的是川普在白宫最后几个月最让他抓狂也还是伊朗。

因为他清楚，一旦退出伊核协议走上鹰派路线，美以必须打起十万分精神，且分秒必争；战略方针比如增产美油压低油价，以贸易战为大棒维持的全面禁运（尤其是要镇住东大不继续买），美以右派政府的高度互信和协作，都是这几年里需要长期维持才有希望在伊朗得到核武器之前就蛀空伊朗神权政府的统治根基，制造regime change；再造波斯，流芳百世。

而川普正确地预见到，拜登上来第一件事就会把这些政策全部逆转。伊朗必然死灰复燃，暗中推进洲际导弹与核弹的研发，等到下一个知道自己叫什么名字的总统上来，可能一切都已经太晚了。

到这里我逐渐明白是什么最bother他，为什么疯狂地揪着选举舞弊不放，默许支持者冲击国会，千方百计地不愿意下台，到最后几天考虑对伊朗开战当时更是让我百思不得其解。

更让我难以理解的是为什么他初入政坛，就这么决然地选择了明显更难走，政治风险巨大的鹰派路线，最后因为2020年这种百年一遇的灾年被一个阿兹海默症患者击败，落得这般进退维谷的境地？

但是由于印象太过深刻，这些疑点一直记在心里。直到全部连成一片的时候才恍然大悟：

川普家族和锡安主义势力（国际犹太）的深度绑定不仅仅是他作为一个政治素人，想用最短的时间增强自己和特朗普家族作为一个政治家族的合法性和影响力；这同时也是他个人作为一个纽约房地产商对9·11的深刻记忆，以及他个人的政治理想，恰好与以色列右派一拍即合：

拔掉伊朗，平定中东，把时间拨回到1979年以前；拔完ISIS，朝鲜，塔利班之后的阻碍世界和平的最后一根钉子，创造美国主导下的第二个罗马和平式的盛世（Pax Americana）；创造一个他第一届领导班子里颇多古典学者和新罗马主义者（Michael Anton等）所愿想的，仍旧属于美国的新世纪。这是他的偶像尼克松和里根都尝试却没做到的事情。

同时，伊核协议这一奥巴马花重金安装的定时炸弹也不必留给后世，而是在川普任期内就拆除完成，顺便拯救波斯民族于水火。这一定是深爱着波斯人民和波斯历史的尼克松会希望看到的。

性格上酷似查士丁尼，朱棣，且一向喜爱自比先贤的特朗普自然没办法拒绝这样的功绩。
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2020年2月，共和党内部民调显示如果当时的趋势继续下去，川普将会以里根总统的1984年大选以来最大的landslide取胜。

民主党内部士气低落，并且有民主党人已经打电话给川普政府，考虑第二任期和共和党组成coalition。2020年3月川普的届终SOTU，佩洛西只能在最后撕碎演讲稿无能狂怒。

伊朗的全国性示威此时已经持续数月，并且在18年退出伊核协议且实施全面禁运以后这些抗议越来越频繁，规模越来越大。苏莱曼尼则在2020年1月份，刚被MQ-9“死神”一发刀片飞弹切成肉酱。

与此同时，美以联手在伊朗境内连连击杀核科学家，让伊朗核武器研发进度远远落后于美以颠覆日程。一切看上去都在按照计划完美推进，似乎最晚在连任后不久，美国只需轻轻一推，摇摇欲坠的伊斯兰主义政权就会轰然倒塌...

就在这时候，纽约出现了第一个确诊病例。

It was all downhill from here.

[老猎户 @yao30059829]

@diamondrapids 我得马屁一下，读书超多的人我见多了，里面傻逼的比例不比普通人群低。所以关键不是读书多少，有些人就把你说的这些读一百遍，他那脑子也没办法把所有事情串起来你信么？读书多，还能融会贯通，这才是真本事。

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@Silicon_Fly I'm confused by that 50% number as well, I'd assume it's referring to Panther Lake.

[Jonathan Shpigler @JShpigler]

💯 The longer the memory up-cycle continues the bigger will be the magnitude of the 2nd order effect on Semicap

#WFE_gang

[TBU @TBU12345678]

my big revelation this past week is that the clearest opportunities in the market to me are in semicap - $ONTO $MKSI $AMAT $ASML $LRCX $KLAC. things will stay tight for the foreseeable future which is / will be reflected in a lot of folks but not here yet. Terrafab is also pretty real

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@NullOreo_ 我也逃了rklb nvda，看着cloudflare iran tracker总觉得最近的谈判莫名安静了下来，油价也在涨。早上起来听说又对射了都不出奇，像已经预料到了一样

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@Kurnalsalts @Alex_Intel_ @diyas_1989

[Kurnal @Kurnalsalts]

Samsung 2nm Processor analyze
Video in Youtube
https://t.co/Ybl1sCjnv6
analyze PDF in my website\
https://t.co/ApZz6QUmF2

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@caplume_R @ShanghaoJin @RYANHINGSHING @gailelo1 10x PB 没问题

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@AortaCharlie @Norseman1 lol great martis

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

Just read Ghalibaf’s message for the anniversary of Khomeini’s death.
The content is complex and touches upon different issues, some ideological, others political and strategic.
Some are also related to the continuity of the Nezam (System) itself.

- What emerges is something more important than commemorative rhetoric.
The statement highlights a political-ideological continuity after the war and after Khamenei.
Particularly noteworthy is the explicit reaffirmation of loyalty to Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Leader.
Not only is his authority recognized openly, but it is framed as the natural continuation of the same revolutionary and theological chain: Khomeini, Khamenei, Mojtaba, all under the framework of Velayat-e faqih.

- The text insists that the system did not collapse with the death of Khamenei. On the contrary, it argues that his “martyrdom” reinforced the revolution, strengthened institutional cohesion, transferred legitimacy and resistance to the next generation of leadership.

- There is also an important doctrinal signal. Iran is presenting the recent war as the beginning of a harsher deterrence era: the end of “cost-free threats” against Iran, normalization of direct retaliation, and the idea that every attack will now produce a painful and proportional response, as highlighted by the latest events in the Persian Gulf.

- In other words, to me the statement reads almost like a post-war manifesto of resilience: continuity of the Velayat-e faqih system, consolidation around Mojtaba Khamenei, and the emergence of a more explicit and militarized deterrence doctrine after the conflict.

#Iran #IranWar

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@A_Najumi primary reason for the ipo is to fund terafab and xai. the former is all semicap capex, latter $nvda rubin racks

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@A_Najumi if it's to hedge the spacex ipo - know that the moment elon gets his money, he's dumping a big chunk of it into ASML. It does look like a good position to short from but fundamentals are so strong I'm a little skeptical

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@RYANHINGSHING @jpmorgan 弹药非常缺了，爱国者严重缺货就是乌克兰最近被直接炸基辅的主要原因。台湾军售暂停，以色列升级被叫停，现在按照伊朗14点和谈，拦截弹缺乏是非常重要的原因

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@beefcubee literally

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@TheMarketRaven Beautiful. Strait crisis reignited, oil prices up, Tesla expected sales and ev TAM up

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@Adaamset Looks like the doubt was warranted

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@Chrh1989 @NullableX fair. 伊朗互联网capacity已经基本恢复了

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@NullableX Hmmm...油一直在涨，94了

strange

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@NullableX Boxer已经跟着华盛顿回亚太了

[Diamond Rapids @diamondrapids]

@Vivian193299 Nice!