丁洪Liam

AI Product Manager. Builder. Marathoner. Decoding AI, Product Strategy & Global Growth. Ex-Head of Product for a global startup. Long $TSLA. (Views are my own.)

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

Look forward to Grok 4.8

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

We have dumped JAX/SGLang and rewritten the entire RL and inference stack from scratch in C/C++, which took some extra time.

Training (aka pre-training) is done. Lot of cleanup was needed on the SFT data to get that mostly right. Now, 4.8 is in RL and the evals are starting to climb. We will do a soft rollout to Bot users later this week and see how it goes.

Grok 4.8 will bear no resemblance to 4.7 (thankfully). It is not yet incredible, but, this time, the foundations are built right, so I expect it to evolve to be something special.

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

Fable 5.2: +10% Intelligence, +164% Cost

[Claude @claudeai]

Introducing Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2, designed to tackle the most daunting technical challenges.

They’re capable collaborators on ambitious projects in many fields, and show improvements in areas like coding, reasoning, and vision.

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

美股这礼拜也太离谱了….

现金足够多，准备加仓….

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

期待！

[cat @_catwu]

Some news: I’m joining OpenAI to lead product management for Core Products!

I have a lot of respect for OpenAI for showing the world that scaling works, for bringing AI to over a billion people, and for believing great products are core to the mission.

I’m excited to work with @thsottiaux, an incredible PM team, and everyone across OpenAI. Together, we’ll build agents that have your back and your team’s, and keep you in control, so you get more time for the people and work you love.

Lots to learn, and lots to build. Please keep your feedback coming!

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

SemiAnalysis 今天发了一个新的 Agent 基准 GDPx：206 个任务、11 个领域，每个任务都给 Agent 一个真实的工作环境，默认时限 8 小时。

最强的 Claude Opus 5.5 也只拿到 12.0%。

总分前 5：
1. Claude Opus 5.5：12.0
2. Gemini 4 Carbon：10.9
3. GPT-6 Astra：9.6
4. Muse Wonder Full：9.0
5. Claude Fable 5.1：8.5

比分数更值得看的是它们怎么失败的。挑了对做 Agent 产品最有用的 4 条：

1. 写代码：失败的运行里，76% 栽在主需求「周边」的要求上，比如保持仓库原有行为、集成、边界情况。要改的那处改对了，别的没顾到。

2. 金融和法律：按通过/不通过算，所有模型都是 0，榜上报的是部分得分。一道公开的法律题，20 次运行里 20 次都没防住公司借子公司绕开投资人的保护条款。

3. 医疗：100 次运行只有 19 次得分大于 0。模型会替医生在病历上签名，会告诉病人「影像检查已批准」，而保险公司其实拒了。

4. 总分会被安全分类器压低：SemiAnalysis 说 Opus 5.5 和 GPT-6 Astra 在网络安全、生物、对齐这三个领域会被分类器拦下，去掉这三项再排，结果会变。

测试方法也值得说一下：
每个模型用自家的 harness 跑，Opus 用 Claude Code，Astra 用 Codex，Gemini 用 Antigravity，没有自家 harness 的用 OpenCode。

我的判断：
这些失败很多不是「不会做」，而是「没把周边要求当需求」和「不该自己做的也做了」。接下来做 Agent 产品，拼的可能不只是模型分数，而是把验收和「停下来问人」设计进流程。

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

Today we’re releasing GDPx, a benchmark for measuring agentic capabilities across the most valuable domains.

GDPx is a true frontier-level benchmark: even the best model scores just 12% (1/7)🧵

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

这个工具其实对用 Hermes、OpenClaw这些 Agent 的也有效，也能做到在手机上调用自己电脑里的 Codex、ClaudeCode、Cursor、OpenCode。

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

给 Grok Bot 做了一个小工具：

在手机 App 里就能给家里电脑上的 Codex、Cursor、OpenCode 派活，也能在手机上完成对 Agent 的审批。

不用坐到电脑前，在 Grok Bot App 里说一句要做什么，选好用哪个 agent，活就派到家里的电脑上。

这次 Codex 要新建文件时，请求回到了手机上的对话里，我点了同意它才往下走。

还在测试阶段，看看有没有什么坑。

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

在书店看到一本 孙子兵法

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

The more you buy, the more you save.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Macroharder and Minihard both have 220k GB300s with 800 gig nics configured for training. Gun Range will have the same. Spam (used to house Hormel products) will have ~200k GB300s, but configured for inference, so much simpler networking and less than half the fiber.

I walked the whole Colossus 2 site around midnight and again this morning.

Good progress by the SpaceX team and contractors. Gun Range is tracking to be operational by end of November and Spam in December.

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

以前工程师会先理解需求，现在 Agent 直接执行我们写下的每个字。

需求写得模糊，错误也会被原样放大 10–20 倍。

写需求，本身就是在写 prompt。

[hidecloud @hidecloud]

A year ago, an engineer would read my request, work out what I meant, then write the code.

Now our engineers often has 10–20 requests running at once.

In September I found my Slack message pasted word for word as an engineer's prompt.

What changed when we rebuilt Manus with Manus:

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

ChatGPT 的 dot 现在能直接发短信了：用 iMessage 或 RCS 给它派任务，文字、照片、语音都行，有进展它会主动发短信给你。

只有美国的 Pro 用户，而且还是预览版。

重点：

1. 只能一对一
官方原话：你是唯一能给你的 dot 发消息的人，你的 dot 也只能给你发。没法拉进群聊，一家人共用一个 Pro 账号就不太方便。

2. 它会主动找你
不是你问它答，而是交代一件事让它盯着，有变化它先发过来。

3. 可以按场景分渠道
dots 团队的 Nick Baumann 说，可以让 dot 把日常进展发在 ChatGPT 里，工作相关的发到 Slack。

[ChatGPT @ChatGPT]

By popular request, you can now text your dot.

Give it a task to take off your plate or something to keep an eye on, using text, photos, or even voice notes. It will text you proactively with relevant updates.

Safe, secure texting via iMessage or RCS. You’re the only one who can text your dot, and your dot can only text you. Rolling out now as a preview for Pro users in the US.

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

Looking at Carbon, I'm starting to suspect Gemini has quietly hit RSI behind closed doors.

根据 Carbon 和 Argon 的表现，我开始怀疑 Gemini 已经实现 RSI 了。

[Sundar Pichai @sundarpichai]

I did say we'd be releasing our models periodically...introducing Gemini 4 Carbon, our next frontier model.

Following Argon's release just two weeks ago, Carbon shows the pace at which we’re pushing the frontier, it ranks #1 on the recently updated v5.0 of @ArtificialAnlys Intelligence Index at 59. It also leads across key cybersecurity evaluations scoring 88.2% on SEC-bench Pro for finding vulnerabilities, 54.8% on ExploitGym for exploitation, and 71.0% on CWE-bench for patching.

We’re seeing significant improvements in long-horizon tasks even compared to Argon, and we’ve strengthened frontier safeguards.

As we did with Argon, we’re going to roll it out gradually + responsibly. Some trusted cyber defenders will get access starting this week. We'll be expanding it to more partners through our Fairwind Program, ahead of wider availability soon, so hang tight!

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

去 https://t.co/bLWTUKOMBz 用 GitHub 或 Google 账号登录排个 Waitlist 就能领，全程不用绑信用卡，过2-3天拿到邀请码就能直接开机器。

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

收到 Instabox 的邀请码，居然白嫖了一台免费云服务器。

4 vCPU、8 GiB 内存、20 GiB 硬盘，闲置 30 分钟自动休眠。

听说还能开图形桌面，准备拿来给 Agent 跑跑浏览器，大家还有什么好玩的用法推荐吗？

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

@sebasidian22714 我还只发过截图…

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

摸清了现在 X 算法的流量密码，好像就奖励这 4 种内容：

1. 蹭热点，搭配深度输出
盯着热点做 Quote，但别当复读机。配上自己的拆解、数据或反常识视角。让人愿意读完，并回复/引用。

2. 做 Builder，持续公开构建
发自己在折腾的产品、开源、Skill、Demo 视频或截图。原创 + 媒体（尤其原生视频）更容易拿到停留时间和转发。

3. 制造“值得转发”的认知价值
给能让人复制发给朋友的内容：深刻思考、习以为常却反直觉的冷知识、清晰框架。引发真实讨论，而不是单纯制造焦虑。

4. 满足猎奇与挑动情绪
直接下场键政，或擦边搞黄色，确实容易拉回复和点赞。

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

今天 Commit 0 次，改标题 7 次。

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

卧槽

这是哪个神人做的新手引导设计….

我正在编辑帖子，忽然屏幕上出现一只大手，我还以为自己手机被黑了…

然后意识到，这个手指向 Promote 按钮，可以用来给帖子买量。

可以是可以，但是把功能新手引导做的这么创（chou）新（xiang），是不是完全没必要….

[丁洪Liam @ding_liam]

为什么订阅额度用完之后

Grok 的定时任务还会继续推送呢，这怕不是 Bug 吧？

难道定时任务走的是单独的通道？但是我 Grok 和 Grok Bot 都已经不回复了，提示额度用尽。

背景：我是 Super 订阅。